AAPL: How high will it go?

[Vintage Racer]

Originally Posted by enzo1

If this single product were its own company in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, IPhone Inc. would outsell 474 of those companies—

Whatever.

The market only cares about the profits (and revenue) in 2014, 2015, and beyond. AAPL is getting killed in market share. It trades at low multiples to revs and earnings because traders don't want to try to catch a falling knife.

They need to fire Tim Cook and hire Tony Fadell as CEO.

P/S GM (and others) had great revs before they ran into problems.

[enzo1]

“comScore has recently updated their MobiLens and Mobile Metrix, data for US smartphone subscribers in August 2013. Many in the media picked up the point that iOS gained on Android during the month. While this is true, it has actually been going on for almost a year now,” Ben Bajarin writes for Tech.pinions. “In November, 2012, Android peaked in the US at just over 53% share. Since then it has slowly declined. During that same time iOS has been slowly growing.”
“The iPhone does not compete with the low-end, extremely low-cost, Android devices offered free by carriers or on pre-pay plans from retailers, which is why comparing the iPhone to the entirety of Android is a mistake. Rather, to get a holistic picture of what is happening, we must compare the iPhone to similarly priced products. More specifically we must compare the iPhone’s market share to that of other vendors’ products at the same price points. When we do that, we get a clearer picture,” Bajarin writes. “Below is the iPhone’s share against other devices costing greater than $400 wholesale (or offered at $99-$199 subsidized). This chart is based on sell through estimates [about which] I am extremely confident.”




“As you can see, the iPhone dominates the premium segment of the market. These estimates are prior to the launch of the iPhone 5c and iPhone 5s,” Bajarin writes. “Based on all the data I am seeing from demand and sales trends, it is hard not to conclude that iOS will overtake Android in the US in the near future – possibly as soon as the end of the calendar year. But perhaps the most important thing about the iPhone’s share in the premium devices sector is that other competitors have only been able to made weak inroads against it. Samsung, for example, has been spending hundreds of millions of dollars in US-based marketing, yet their share of the premium market has peaked and been trending downward on weaker-than-expected sales in 2013.”
http://techpinions.com/its-tough-competing-with-the-iphone/23835

[techweenie]

Looking at hardware sales is good. Looking at overall usage (the Comscore numbers above) is better; looking at the population of devices connected to the iOS ecosystem (app store and iTunes) is best.

[motion]

I rarely see anything but an iPhone in use when I'm out and about. I guess all the Android devices must be in New Jersey (apologies to anyone here from New Jersey).

[Vintage Racer]

Originally Posted by enzo1

“comScore has recently updated their MobiLens and Mobile Metrix, data for US smartphone subscribers in August 2013......

Originally Posted by techweenie

Looking at hardware sales is good. Looking at overall usage (the Comscore numbers above) is better; looking at.......

You guys act as if Wall Street doesn't price this in quickly (in a microsecond). This is old news.

Timmy Cook is not the right guy. He is presenting little new information about the future (Will the new IPad allow fingerprints like the new iPhone? Who cares?)

This isn't Coca-Cola which moves more drinks year after year. The market has seen fads before.

The margins were great on Apple due to Jobs. They seem to be lowering margins to sale in emerging markets.

The P/E will suffer as long as the company shows no new must-have products. The Android is coming fast and investors are getting worried that Apple is just counting on it's past performance. If Android puts up good numbers next quarter, it will put more pressure of AAPL stock prices.

What new thing is happening? Like I said, it is cheap for a good reason. Who needs a new iPhone in the U.S.A.? Who could afford one in China?

It's called a market. There are buyers and sellers. The old fan-boys don't have a clue how markets work.

[enzo1]

Lol...

[Vintage Racer]

Originally Posted by enzo1

Lol...

Google Inc.'s Android software continues to steamroll the competition in smartphones, posing bigger problems for companies like Apple and BlackBerry.

New data Wednesday from research firm IDC found that Apple's share of the global market slid to 13.2% in the second quarter from 16.6% in the year-earlier period. Handsets running Android, meanwhile, jumped to 79.3% from 69.1%.

WSJ

I am sure that AAPL will stop this slide....as soon as their phones are free (which will not hurt margins to you fan-boys).

[McLovin]

aapl's been on the move!

As of today, I could sell and get out and break even or come out a little bit ahead.

I think I'll wait it out a bit, though.

[McLovin]

which means probably now is the time to sell

[techweenie]

Interesting discovery: that the lower-priced phones are not as popular as the 5S.
So Apple recently cut 5C production and boosted 5S production.
Price elasticity rules don't seem to apply.

[McLovin]

That doesn't surprise me, because there really is no significant price difference for most people (I think).

I think when you go to a Verizon, etc. store and buy the phone and sign up for a plan, or when you upgrade your existing phone, the 5S is $199 and the 5C is $99.

Given how much these phones cost to operate for one year, on even a basic text and data plan, that $100 difference is pretty much insignificant.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by McLovin

....
As of today, I could sell and get out and break even or come out a little bit ahead.

I think I'll wait it out a bit, though.

Hold for the long haul...you won't regret it. Just PLEASE let me know should you wish to purchase some more....I'd likely liquidate temporarily for the inevitable "dip" that would surely follow

I keed....

[imcarthur]

Buy the rumor sell the news Part II . . . watch for the dip tomorrow. Analysts are still talking higher. Of course, they have been wrong before.

Ian

[McLovin]

I bought in at 3 times at 3 price levels, the highest was at $550, so as of today I'm fully in the black and up a few thousand.

I suppose I could get out with a profit and take all the risk off the table.

But it seems like now that it has gotten momentum to get this high again, that momentum may carry it to $600+.

??

[motion]

Holiday sales are looking excellent for Apple. I'm planning on sticking with it through the New Year. iWatch next year could be HUGE.

[Reg]

iWatch next year could be HUGE

should read: iWatch next year COULD be huge.

OTOH the big clunky calculator watches undoubtedly made some people alot of money back in the day.

[techweenie]

Quote

iWatch next year could be HUGE

should read: iWatch next year COULD be huge.



OTOH the big clunky calculator watches undoubtedly made some people alot of money back in the day.

I had one of those! I got it in 1976 from a little company called Intel. Whatever became of them?

[pitargue]

Just got back from SE Asia. iPhone's are definitely status symbols, and is wanted by everyone and their brother. People have Android devices because they can't afford an iPhone. But as soon as they can, adroid phones are ditched and replaced w/ any version of the iPhone.

Never in my life have I been so proud of an American company and how it has completely taken the hearts and minds of everyone. It is indeed a cult. Steve Jobs true brilliance shined while traveling through SE Asia.

Keep your Apple stock. Unless Tim Cook completely screws the pooch...

[techweenie]

Pitargue, I'm with you on feeling proud of the company. Latest report is that the iPhone 5s and 5c captured 76% of the smartphone market in Japan last month.

[motion]

We were in Russia a couple months ago, and people were so proud of their iPhones, they were practically wearing them on their foreheads. I still believe Apple knows a thing or two about exclusivity. I can only imagine what its like in Asia, where not too long ago people were in need of basic living services.