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-   -   When will the 911 bubble pop??? (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/834469-when-will-911-bubble-pop.html)

group911@aol.co 10-18-2014 01:50 PM

Porsche 911 Coupe | eBay
Porsche 911 Carrera | eBay
Porsche 911 Carrera Convertible 2 Door | eBay
Porsche 911 Carrera Targa | eBay
Quote:

Originally Posted by fintstone (Post 8312193)
I have to agree to disagree with you guys. I don't belive folks are getting close to $50K for 3.2s (except in very rare cases)...even pristine ones...or SCs for over $30K.


fintstone 10-18-2014 02:02 PM

I concede...assuming they are actually able to collect on those auctions.

On the bright side...I believe my Carrera to be slightly superior to most of those (just a bit higher mileage...Over 80K)...so I am happy to be wrong.

bivenator 10-18-2014 02:16 PM

Each of the cars you linked to except the last were under 50k milage. The prices for all were not 50k. I will agree that prices have gone up but I don't expect I could get 30 for my 160k car. 88 coupe with most common upgrades.

Shaun @ Tru6 10-18-2014 02:21 PM

The scam is not the description, it's the bidding.

Rick V 10-18-2014 02:26 PM

When I bought my SC ten years ago it was all original, and I have kept it that way for a reason. I don't have any delusions that I will be selling it for a house any time soon but it does make me feel god to know I did make the right choices.

Shaun @ Tru6 10-18-2014 02:28 PM

Having spent 2 months finding a G50 coupe for a friend, prices have gone up but you can still get a truly excellent car for just over 30k. My friend was kicking himself for turning down the 70k mile excellent 87 for $32k until I found him a very nice 87 with new top end done by an excellent shop with a host "while you are in there" stuff for a purchase price of $29k which would have been $26k two years ago. Good deals in G50s if you are ok with the modest price bump. We missed several cars by timing alone.

fintstone 10-18-2014 02:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun 84 Targa (Post 8312541)
Having spent 2 months finding a G50 coupe for a friend, prices have gone up but you can still get a truly excellent car for just over 30k. My friend was kicking himself for turning down the 70k mile excellent 87 for $32k until I found him a very nice 87 with new top end done by an excellent shop with a host "while you are in there" stuff for a purchase price of $29k which would have been $26k two years ago. Good deals in G50s if you are ok with the modest price bump. We missed several cars by timing alone.

This is more what I expected from what I have seen.

SilberUrS6 10-18-2014 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun 84 Targa (Post 8312541)
Having spent 2 months finding a G50 coupe for a friend, prices have gone up but you can still get a truly excellent car for just over 30k.

The trick is, you have to work at it, and be quick with the money.

Just like two years ago, you could get a good G50 for $20k, if you were patient and quick with the money.

I have seen the retail outlets like Mohr advertise these cars in the $60k region!

scottmandue 10-18-2014 02:52 PM

To answer the OP my uneducated opinion is it is not a 911 thing... 60's Vettes are going for six figures... this is just "classic car" mania. Not necessarily a good or bad thing just what the market will bring for these cars right now might go on forever... market might turn around (down) in a few years, only time will tell.

Kind of a drag for us car guys, I had my heart set on a 911T... I guess I will have to console myself with the dream of getting a 996 someday instead. :cool:

motion 10-18-2014 02:53 PM

Couldn't agree with Wayne more. I chose motorcycles because they're small and easy to work on. I'm seeing 100% appreciation on my purchases over the past few years, and I expect it to keep going. Collectables of all types are hot right now.

group911@aol.co 10-18-2014 03:55 PM

So, mid to upper $40's ain't close to $50k?
Quote:

Originally Posted by bivenator (Post 8312526)
Each of the cars you linked to except the last were under 50k milage. The prices for all were not 50k. I will agree that prices have gone up but I don't expect I could get 30 for my 160k car. 88 coupe with most common upgrades.


Reiver 10-18-2014 05:18 PM

Well, I'm old enough to remember when folks were saying the same thing about 356's and early 911's....this is a bubble, won't last....yada, yada, yada......

Special and unique cars will eventually bring special and unique prices...air cooled 6's are in that category and when they reach a certain age will start up that ladder.
We're just at the bottom rungs for the impact bumper cars....keep them.

BE911SC 10-18-2014 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts (Post 8312565)
I've mentioned this before in posts, and it's just my opinion, but I think that inflation is here and active in the high end of almost all collectible markets. With the stock market at all time highs (due to cheap money floating around), and banks actually charging people to store their money (see article Friday in WSJ), there's no incentive to "save" money via traditional channels (interest bearing accounts, bonds, etc.). So, this money has to go somewhere. So, people with money appear to be purchasing hard assets (cars, art, real estate) which is then pushing prices higher every day. I've been buying cars now heavily for the past 5 years because I thought they were better investments than the stock market or bonds, etc. I've also bought some real estate. The mantra is to borrow as much as you can at low *fixed* rates these days, as the impending inflation is coming soon. There's all this talk about deflation, and the like, but the fact of the matter is that the money supply has been expanded significantly, and there's more money now chasing a fixed number of assets. That is why, in my opinion, we've seen such gains in the car market. It's a neat asset that is appreciating, and it's way more fun to own than stocks or bonds! :)

-Wayne

"You can't drive your money." -Jerry Seinfeld.

A horse with no name 10-18-2014 06:09 PM

litre size of your engine.
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by LeeH (Post 8311462)
I bought my '72 for $12K and sold it for $24K. Can't imagine what it would bring today.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1110560149.jpg

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1110560285.jpg


No offence meant but I owned two 911T's; a '70 & a '71 and both had 2.2 litre motors.

The 1st 3 litre was in a Turbo in 1975 and in 1978 all naturally aspirated engines were 3. litre.

As a matter of interest, I restored the '70 911 T - a 10-10 job in 1980 and sold it for $13,500.00 in 1983.

Rick Lee 10-19-2014 09:27 AM

Time to get the 993 ready for sale.

McLovin 10-19-2014 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scottmandue (Post 8312568)
To answer the OP my uneducated opinion is it is not a 911 thing... 60's Vettes are going for six figures... this is just "classic car" mania. Not necessarily a good or bad thing just what the market will bring for these cars right now might go on forever... market might turn around (down) in a few years, only time will tell.

"Go on forever." No.

It's amazing how markets and bubbles are. Many might remember the infamous "RE Prices NEVER Go Down" thread here on PPOT. During the last real estate bubble 8 or so years ago. It was amazing. 95% of the posters here claimed that real estate prices NEVER go down. Because, "they're not making it any more."

That, of course, ignored the many RE bubbles that had inflated and deflated in the past. Weird, and a complete denial of history.

So, people (in PPOT and the world in general) were buying overpriced bubble houses in Las Vegas, Phoenix, Port St. Lucie, $700K houses in Albuqurque, etc. Only to pay the price for not learning from history.

Anyone who has been around long enough and invested (in anything) long enough, and has any common sense, knows that all asset classes rise and fall over time. Always and forever.

It's the nature of money and investing. It flows from one thing to the next, in cycles.

I agree the current car market isn't a "911" thing, it's the collector car market as a whole.

But, it's nothing new. It hasn't happened to 911s before, but that's mainly because of their age. They were too young and plentiful during the last few collector car bubbles. Air cooled is special now, but it wasn't when they were still being made, all the way up to the late 90s. And, there were so many made (by collectibility standards).

But it has happened with other cars, big time. In the late 80s, Ferrari 308s were selling for $125K, and Dinos for $250K+ (in late 80s dollars). They "weren't making them anymore" after all. But those Ferrari prices popped, and that same $125K 308 eventually became a $25K 308. And the $250K dino became a $75K dino.

And, of course, the American muscle car bubble. Huge 6 figures cars collapsed in price.

This is no different. No speculator asset stays up "forever."

The 74 US Carrera is a good example. Someone who pays $150K for a 175 hp US model CIS injected 911 is going to lose their shirt.

LeeH 10-19-2014 09:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A horse with no name (Post 8312790)
No offence meant but I owned two 911T's; a '70 & a '71 and both had 2.2 litre motors.

The 1st 3 litre was in a Turbo in 1975 and in 1978 all naturally aspirated engines were 3. litre.

As a matter of interest, I restored the '70 911 T - a 10-10 job in 1980 and sold it for $13,500.00 in 1983.

This is a different '72 911 than the one referenced in my signature. The tangerine car in the pic had the original 2.4L with mechanical fuel injection.

fintstone 10-19-2014 11:12 AM

While I believe the market strong, I think some folks will have to wait a very, very long time to make any money on the top dollar purchase of fairly common cars. Guys like Wayne who can afford very special cars are likely different due to the relative scarcity and the folks who can buy what they wat, regardless of cost. A $125K midyear US Carrera or a $50K+ 3.2 car will likely be worth less before they are worth more (unless inflation goes berserk). That said, there seem to be people out there now that are willing to pay some pretty high prices for these cars now...but like someone said, they seem a lot like the folks in Vegas who were trying to get in before the price was out of theur reach. All assumed they would be rewarded handsomely. My $700K house in Vegas is almost worth $400K now...and some day, it may be worth $800K, but the carrying costs will be over a million by then. Obviously, I should have invested in longhoods then...but I needed a place to live.

speeder 10-19-2014 11:57 AM

One problem would have been walking into a bank and asking for a 30 year loan @ 4% for $700k to buy old Porsches.

SilberUrS6 10-19-2014 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fintstone (Post 8313531)
Obviously, I should have invested in longhoods then...but I needed a place to live.

That is really the big difference. Real estate can actually be useful while you're holding it. A gaggle of longhoods? Well, maybe to some guy in Sheridan, WY, but not to real folks with limited storage. :)

There has always been the tension for us car guys about the cars we'd like to buy and the means to keep them nice. A couple of years ago, I had a shot at a SWB longhood 912 for $8500. But nowhere to keep it. Sure, I could have parked it on my lawn, but dang, what civilized person does that kind of crap? OK, I could have rented a storage unit and stored it to the tune of $1500 per annum. And now I could sell it for between $20-30k. Sure, I would have ultimately made money. But I'm not a flipper nor a guy who wants to work the arbitrage on collector assets. I like DRIVING. That longhood 912 was actually a pretty sweet machine. And if I could, right now, trade straight across for my 3.2, I would do it in a second. But because I love to drive these cars, I'd want them both, and not sell, no matter what the market.

Along with the two VWs I sold, and the Chevy II that I sold, and the old GMC pickup I sold...

If I had held on to all those cars, I might have a very serious nest egg. But where to keep them? And how to avoid the fact I love to drive them, not store them? LMAO.

A horse with no name 10-19-2014 01:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeeH (Post 8313445)
This is a different '72 911 than the one referenced in my signature. The tangerine car in the pic had the original 2.4L with mechanical fuel injection.

Hmmmm? -

Quote:

'Lee'
'72 911 3.0L - SOLD Now a resident of the UK

LeeH 10-19-2014 01:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by A horse with no name (Post 8313666)
Hmmmm? -

Quote:

'Lee'
'72 911 3.0L - SOLD Now a resident of the UK

Yep... the car in my signature was the last 911 (out of 7) that I owned... a red '72 with a 1982 3.0L engine. Prior to that, I owned the tangerine '72 with a 2.4L MFI engine as seen in the pic. SmileWavy

Rinty 10-20-2014 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rick Lee (Post 8313402)
Time to get the 993 ready for sale.

I put mine on the market in August and it sold in 2 days. I was a bit apprehensive about having to sell a special interest car, but the deal turned out to be easy, and the car has gone to a good home.

I do think buyers have to move very quickly in this market.

It will be interesting to see whether the current market corrections have an impact on consumer buying.

Rick Lee 10-20-2014 10:57 AM

I've blown off some minor repairs on my car because I always figured I'd never sell it. So I don't care that the driver's seat won't move due to a bad drive cable. No one else drives it. I haven't bothered to replace the passenger seat adj. switch because it's all the way back and Mrs. Lee says it's comfortable. Now I'm thinking of attcking every little thing on this car and then reassessing whether I want to sell it. If I do, it should bring top dollar. If I don't, then I'll still have a perfect-condition 993. Taking the fan and housing to be powder coated today. Thinking about having the Big Reds redone, as they look ratty with chips, scrapes and stains.

vash 10-20-2014 12:07 PM

i dont think there is a bubble.

supply and demand, right?

911SauCy 10-20-2014 12:40 PM

My thought is...get ready... WHO CARES!?

I own, wrench-on, detail, and drive the ischt out of my 911 because I love it...not because I'm concerned about how much it will be worth some day and whether or not it's the time to sell.

Rinty 10-20-2014 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rick Lee (Post 8315032)
Now I'm thinking of attcking every little thing on this car and then reassessing whether I want to sell it.

I think it's not a bad idea to stay on top of the repairs, and then you can move quickly when the decision comes to sell. Also, it spreads the costs out over time.

The seat on my car stuck shortly after I bought it. It fixed itself in the shop, but my tech removed it, cleaned and lubed the drives, and moved the rails back one hole. That was 6 years ago. On the day my buyer picked up the car, the seat stuck in the full rear position!

I was able to unstick it by rocking the seat forward while working the control, and I'm sure that was due to my tech having serviced the mechanism way back when.

PaulBrown 10-20-2014 03:48 PM

One day I'm gonna own one of these babies...when I win the lottery :D

Grimm 10-24-2014 08:13 AM

Well, the bid on the '74 Carrera the orig poster mentioned hasn't moved in 6 days, with 2 days to go on the auction. I wonder if the bids are legit?? Porsche 911 US Carrera | eBay

There is another '74 Carrera on eBay with a bid currently at $50K. I thought I saw this same car on eBay last week with the bidding around $90K? The miles listed look suspect. Porsche 911 Carrera | eBay

And there is yet another '74 Carrera on ebay with a bid at $95K, and the reserve has not yet been met. I'm rooting for this one to keep going because my '75 Carrera is very similar and has fewer miles. I've been following this one closely and the bidding on this one looks legit. Porsche 911 Carrera Coupe 2 7 Ltr 69K Orig Miles | eBay

But the car I don't understand is the '74 911S listed here on Pelican for $58K. I haven't seen non-Carreras carrying that kind of price tag before. http://forums.pelicanparts.com/porsche-cars-sale/828242-1974-porsche-911-2-7-a.html

motion 10-24-2014 09:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rick Lee (Post 8315032)
I've blown off some minor repairs on my car because I always figured I'd never sell it. So I don't care that the driver's seat won't move due to a bad drive cable. No one else drives it. I haven't bothered to replace the passenger seat adj. switch because it's all the way back and Mrs. Lee says it's comfortable. Now I'm thinking of attcking every little thing on this car and then reassessing whether I want to sell it. If I do, it should bring top dollar. If I don't, then I'll still have a perfect-condition 993. Taking the fan and housing to be powder coated today. Thinking about having the Big Reds redone, as they look ratty with chips, scrapes and stains.

Don't do it!

I don't think the bubble has reached 993s yet... with the possible exception of Turbo S's and 4's. I see plenty of drivers for sale in the low 30s. Me thinks the 993's will ultimately be extremely desirable, but we're 5-10 years or more from that point. I can pretty much guarantee you that your 993 will be worth over 100K in 10 years time. Why not enjoy it till then?

GH85Carrera 10-24-2014 09:34 AM

To answer the question in the OP.

It will pop the month before I decide I need to sell my 911. I have no plans to sell anytime soon so the market is safe for now.

Shaun @ Tru6 10-24-2014 12:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GH85Carrera (Post 8321990)
To answer the question in the OP.

It will pop the month before I decide I need to sell my 911. I have no plans to sell anytime soon so the market is safe for now.

Could you pretend you want to sell it?

SilberUrS6 10-24-2014 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun 84 Targa (Post 8322265)
Could you pretend you want to sell it?

The market knows when you're faking it. :(

Shaun @ Tru6 10-24-2014 07:16 PM

I've learned to spot that myself unless they're really good at it.

BRPORSCHE 10-27-2014 10:19 AM

*Update*

Car sold for $132,500. A simply insane amount of money 85,000 mile Carrera.

SilberUrS6 10-27-2014 10:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun 84 Targa (Post 8322819)
I've learned to spot that myself unless they're really good at it.

Wait, we're still talking about the market here, right? ;)

Shaun @ Tru6 10-27-2014 10:25 AM

hmmm :D

Nathans_Dad 10-27-2014 10:28 AM

I bought my second 1984 Carrera at just the right time (luckily). My first 1984 Carrera was a blue Targa with only 85k miles on it. Bought it for $12,500 about 10 years ago, sold it about 7 years ago for $14000. Then I bought my current 1984 Carrera coupe with 105k miles on it for $14500 four years ago. It's all original except a respray in the last 10 years. I figure it's worth $28-30k as it sits. I'm not planning on selling it but it does make it easier to talk the wife into approving some cash for things like suspension refreshes.

Rick Lee 10-27-2014 10:38 AM

$100k for a plain jane C2? I don't think so. Besides, there's the opportunity cost of having money tied up in a car I never drive and always feel bad about it.


Quote:

<div class="pre-quote">
Quote de <strong>Rick Lee</strong>
</div>

<div class="post-quote">
<div style="font-style:italic">I've blown off some minor repairs on my car because I always figured I'd never sell it. So I don't care that the driver's seat won't move due to a bad drive cable. No one else drives it. I haven't bothered to replace the passenger seat adj. switch because it's all the way back and Mrs. Lee says it's comfortable. Now I'm thinking of attcking every little thing on this car and then reassessing whether I want to sell it. If I do, it should bring top dollar. If I don't, then I'll still have a perfect-condition 993. Taking the fan and housing to be powder coated today. Thinking about having the Big Reds redone, as they look ratty with chips, scrapes and stains.</div>
</div>Don't do it!<br>
<br>
I don't think the bubble has reached 993s yet... with the possible exception of Turbo S's and 4's. I see plenty of drivers for sale in the low 30s. Me thinks the 993's will ultimately be extremely desirable, but we're 5-10 years or more from that point. I can pretty much guarantee you that your 993 will be worth over 100K in 10 years time. Why not enjoy it till then?

porsche4life 10-27-2014 10:50 AM

Rick if you want to sell the 911 I'll buy it. ;). 25k and I'll have it out of your hair. No little crap to fix. ;)


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