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-   -   When will the 911 bubble pop??? (http://forums.pelicanparts.com/off-topic-discussions/834469-when-will-911-bubble-pop.html)

fintstone 10-27-2014 10:55 AM

I think you will see the $130k '74 Carrera relisted.

SilberUrS6 10-27-2014 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fintstone (Post 8325912)
I think you will see the $130k '74 Carrera relisted.

And it will go for more. The market for these rare mid-years is going absolutely nuts.

Rob 930 10-27-2014 12:15 PM

One of the considerations that tends not to get discussed here is that cars are perishable and have significant costs associated with their ownership. This dulls the luster of justifying them as am investment. Aside from the usual yearly fee for registration and insurance (the latter of which can be a significant sum -- to the tune of a couple of percent per year) there are other real costs too. First, there are transaction costs as a buyer -- inspections, travel, shipping, taxes, and of course upgrades and replacement of stuff that you want to fix right away. Who ever figures that into their report of how much their car appreciated? How about normal maintenance if the car is being used -- such as that $18K engine rebuild that your 911 got last year? You know, the one you did because the valve guides needed replacement, but you couldn't stop yourself because you were "in there anyway." Or look at storage. You might have space in your garage, but it could be used for other useful purposes too -- or you could rent out that space for a couple hundred per month. Maybe you even bought that big garage (with an attached house) so you could store your babies. Then there's upkeep. Tires deteriorate. Oil seals dry out. Paint oxidizes and rubber trim gets old. Fluids need changing. The car needs to be exercised, so it gets some wear and tear, and the odometer miles go up. Stuff happens on the road and in the garage. Of course, most of us drive our cars and get some enjoyment and use from them, which needs to be figured in too. But it should be remembered that a collector car may or may not appreciate each year, but it *will* require expenditure of funds to keep it current. Granted, most investments have some sort of yearly cost associated with them, but I think cars have a particularly high carrying cost that almost never gets mentioned in enthusiast forums like this.

rayng 10-27-2014 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob 930 (Post 8326041)
One of the considerations that tends not to get discussed here is that cars are perishable and have significant costs associated with their ownership. This dulls the luster of justifying them as am investment. Aside from the usual yearly fee for registration and insurance (the latter of which can be a significant sum -- to the tune of a couple of percent per year) there are other real costs too. First, there are transaction costs as a buyer -- inspections, travel, shipping, taxes, and of course upgrades and replacement of stuff that you want to fix right away. Who ever figures that into their report of how much their car appreciated? How about normal maintenance if the car is being used -- such as that $18K engine rebuild that your 911 got last year? You know, the one you did because the valve guides needed replacement, but you couldn't stop yourself because you were "in there anyway." Or look at storage. You might have space in your garage, but it could be used for other useful purposes too -- or you could rent out that space for a couple hundred per month. Maybe you even bought that big garage (with an attached house) so you could store your babies. Then there's upkeep. Tires deteriorate. Oil seals dry out. Paint oxidizes and rubber trim gets old. Fluids need changing. The car needs to be exercised, so it gets some wear and tear, and the odometer miles go up. Stuff happens on the road and in the garage. Of course, most of us drive our cars and get some enjoyment and use from them, which needs to be figured in too. But it should be remembered that a collector car may or may not appreciate each year, but it *will* require expenditure of funds to keep it current. Granted, most investments have some sort of yearly cost associated with them, but I think cars have a particularly high carrying cost that almost never gets mentioned in enthusiast forums like this.

Women and children are worse "investments" but people seem to partake--sometimes with complete abandon. Opportunity costs exist. But are these other options like the stock/bond/real estate market always better investments? I heard a guy named Madoff guaranteed double digit returns year over year. Invest in Vegas and Florida real estate? What about dot.coms?

Life is too short. Most of us who buy Porsches love our cars. Of course we could buy a something else with our money. But we can't drive money (Sienfeld). SmileWavy

Nathans_Dad 10-27-2014 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by porsche4life (Post 8325905)
Rick if you want to sell the 911 I'll buy it. ;). 25k and I'll have it out of your hair. No little crap to fix. ;)

Hrm, tempting...:D

cairns 10-27-2014 01:29 PM

Someone asking $195K for a 73S in Pano this week....ridiculous IMO.

Jrboulder 10-27-2014 01:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rob 930 (Post 8326041)
One of the considerations that tends not to get discussed here is that cars are perishable and have significant costs associated with their ownership. This dulls the luster of justifying them as am investment. Aside from the usual yearly fee for registration and insurance (the latter of which can be a significant sum -- to the tune of a couple of percent per year) there are other real costs too. First, there are transaction costs as a buyer -- inspections, travel, shipping, taxes, and of course upgrades and replacement of stuff that you want to fix right away. Who ever figures that into their report of how much their car appreciated? How about normal maintenance if the car is being used -- such as that $18K engine rebuild that your 911 got last year? You know, the one you did because the valve guides needed replacement, but you couldn't stop yourself because you were "in there anyway." Or look at storage. You might have space in your garage, but it could be used for other useful purposes too -- or you could rent out that space for a couple hundred per month. Maybe you even bought that big garage (with an attached house) so you could store your babies. Then there's upkeep. Tires deteriorate. Oil seals dry out. Paint oxidizes and rubber trim gets old. Fluids need changing. The car needs to be exercised, so it gets some wear and tear, and the odometer miles go up. Stuff happens on the road and in the garage. Of course, most of us drive our cars and get some enjoyment and use from them, which needs to be figured in too. But it should be remembered that a collector car may or may not appreciate each year, but it *will* require expenditure of funds to keep it current. Granted, most investments have some sort of yearly cost associated with them, but I think cars have a particularly high carrying cost that almost never gets mentioned in enthusiast forums like this.

Even though my car is worth 2-2.5 times what I paid for it 2 years ago I doubt I'd make money selling it. At best I'd come out at a wash. Still, for 2 years of a backup daily driver/ hobby car it's a pretty good deal.

GG Allin 10-28-2014 03:43 PM

Aside from being a Targa, why is this car not 6 figures? I'm trying to understand the whole "mid year" Carrera thing.

Porsche 911 | eBay

greglepore 10-28-2014 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GG Allin (Post 8328051)
Aside from being a Targa, why is this car not 6 figures? I'm trying to understand the whole "mid year" Carrera thing.

Porsche 911 | eBay

2.7's are common. 3 liters are rare, especially Targa's

Porsche 911 Carrera 3.0

GG Allin 10-28-2014 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by greglepore (Post 8328082)
2.7's are common. 3 liters are rare, especially Targa's

Porsche 911 Carrera 3.0

That link refers to MFI cars. The car in the OP is 2.7 CIS.

sc_rufctr 10-28-2014 04:06 PM

I don't think it's a bubble.

The 911 is unique in the motoring world and it's actually nice to drive. (Have you ever driven an E Type Jag without power steering?)
Their reputation for being well built and robust is also well deserved.

Sure they have problems but we all know you can DIY them and that alone is very attractive.

greglepore 10-28-2014 05:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GG Allin (Post 8328096)
That link refers to MFI cars. The car in the OP is 2.7 CIS.

Yes, it's a CIS 2.7. The 3.0 Carrera, the rare one, is a K-jetronic car but was limited production. They are the Carrera's worth big coin.

onewhippedpuppy 10-28-2014 08:47 PM

Also interesting that with the hysteria, there are suddenly a TON of scam ads. They are getting more creative too by providing a phone number. Though it's pretty obvious when the Indian man can't answer a single detailed question about the car.

fintstone 10-28-2014 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SilberUrS6 (Post 8325953)
And it will go for more. The market for these rare mid-years is going absolutely nuts.

A 2.7 CIS '74....Nah.

afterburn 549 10-28-2014 09:06 PM

Idono I watch the for sale stuff a lot........I see the out of sight ones relisted all the time.
There are some nice 911 cars available under 30K.
I see the whack adds too.
Like said many times "it is only worth what will be actually payed for it."

GWN7 10-28-2014 11:27 PM

The market has popped. I listed my 69 last night and it hasn't sold yet. :)

sc_rufctr 10-29-2014 12:18 AM

An example of the market popping.

This is an Aussie built Ford GT Shaker. For a long time this held the record for the fastest 4 door production car in the world.

Between 10 and 15 years ago a near perfect low mileage cars were selling for about $750,000.
People were actually buying the Ford VIN plates from wrecked cars and recreating fakes trying to cash in on the bubble.

Now you'd be lucky to make $300,000 but I wont even try to guess what they may be worth in another 10 years.

......... Do you enjoy gambling? "Speculation" is a big part of the classic car market.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1414567087.jpg

nota 10-29-2014 07:06 AM

please that will not beat a big block 60's 4 door with only a 351
maybe fastest 4 door in upsidedown land in a given year
not even top 10 here in the USA vs hemi's and other factory built big blocks

sc_rufctr 11-02-2014 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nota (Post 8328882)
please that will not beat a big block 60's 4 door with only a 351
maybe fastest 4 door in upsidedown land in a given year
not even top 10 here in the USA vs hemi's and other factory built big blocks

Yes your're probably right but it was capable of a 14.2 1/4 mile off the factory floor. (Phase 3, auto)
I guess we have the advantage of gravity down under. ;)

http://http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_XY_Falcon_GT

johnco 11-02-2014 10:14 PM

QUICK! someone make me a decent offer on my 74 911s

tabs 11-02-2014 10:22 PM

The question becomes, are the Long Hoods an iconic car? The answer is yes they are. Are there a LIMITED number of S's and E's that have survived relatively intact after long years of abuse and neglect? Why yes there are few original cars left after, rust, wrecks, engine swaps and Turboizing them...Is there a lot of world wide demand for those cars? WHY YES there is...

All of this equates to prices that are here to stay and go even higher...

Sicklyscott 11-06-2014 08:42 AM

this discussion often makes me wonder how much backdated cars will be worth in the future. At some point the generation that grew up in the 80's will be throwing their money in the ring (10-15 years from now?) and all these SCs and Carreras that were backdated to STs, RSs, or RSRs may end up being worth less.

My car has been "turboized" minus the motor. I paid extra for that look but think in the end it's not worth as much as a clean original car from that year.

onewhippedpuppy 11-06-2014 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sicklyscott (Post 8341327)
this discussion often makes me wonder how much backdated cars will be worth in the future. At some point the generation that grew up in the 80's will be throwing their money in the ring (10-15 years from now?) and all these SCs and Carreras that were backdated to STs, RSs, or RSRs may end up being worth less.

My car has been "turboized" minus the motor. I paid extra for that look but think in the end it's not worth as much as a clean original car from that year.

Yup. Follow the generation with money. Right now the children from the 1960s and 1970s are in their prime money earning years, so the 1960-1970 muscle and sports cars are hot. Meanwhile, the market for t-buckets and 1957 Chevys seems to be rapidly cooling. As my generation (born 1980) starts moving into their late 30s and 40s the market for the SC, Carrera, Testarossa, 5.0 Mustang, and other noteworthy cars of the era will continue getting hotter.

Deschodt 11-06-2014 02:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tabs (Post 8335941)
Are there a LIMITED number of S's and E's that have survived relatively intact after long years of abuse and neglect?

Don't be ignoring the Ts ;-) I've driven S, T and E of similar'ish vintage (close enough to be relevant). Honestly now, if money was not a factor (S are 2 to 3x more expensive) the one I'd get for everyday driving is the 2.4T (Ok, not a Euro 68T, I'll admit that's too close to a 912). It's fun most of the time, more torque, no muss no fuss. The S zings in the upper range, but you don't get to "zing" it every day without getting pulled over... in an era of minivans that can trounce those cars, I would take whichever I could afford.. Heck I like 912s most of all despite the earlier joke - 80% of the fun for 20% of the price, as I call them... since those things are no longer the top of the pile anyway, they're plenty sufficient for fun drives....

I see asking prices for S models that make me wanna hug a 912.

dagriff 11-11-2014 01:54 PM

My 77 euro spec 2.7 is going on the boat back to the U.K. in January.
A friend is putting it in his showroom for a while. If it doesn't sell from there, it's going in a Classic auction.
He thinks it should easily go for at least 20-25 u.k.p. There are very few unmolested, straight and non-rusty mid years available there. (plenty of real dogs).
Unless anyone here wan't to buy it.........
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1415742740.jpg

Miguel Antonett 11-11-2014 02:24 PM

Never!!!

126coupe 11-11-2014 03:13 PM

The shop down the street from my man cave is getting north of 300K for perfectly restored long hoods. "S" models 400K, Im am so likely I found my barn find 1969 911S Targa over 2 years ago for a song, original owner, numbers matching. Looking forward to its completion. This car will not be a trailer queen, I'm going to drive the piss out of it.
Car has been in a barn in CA since 1975, when I located it through a friend. Buyers were lining up, thankfully the seller sold it to me because he knew I would not poor boy the restoration.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1415747172.jpg
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1415747205.jpg
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1415747233.jpg
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1415747262.jpg
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1415747287.jpg
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1415747347.jpg

GG Allin 11-11-2014 03:30 PM

Once the bubble does pop, I'm gettin' me a $45K Turbo 3.6.

126coupe 11-11-2014 03:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GG Allin (Post 8348977)
Once the bubble does pop, I'm gettin' me a $45K Turbo 3.6.

I missed the market on a 930 Turbo, one of my favorites

jwasbury 11-11-2014 05:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GG Allin (Post 8348977)
Once the bubble does pop, I'm gettin' me a $45K Turbo 3.6.

^good call.

I'll take one too...in Signal Green.

BE911SC 11-12-2014 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 126coupe (Post 8348958)
The shop down the street from my man cave is getting north of 300K for perfectly restored long hoods. "S" models 400K, Im am so likely I found my barn find 1969 911S Targa over 2 years ago for a song, original owner, numbers matching. Looking forward to its completion. This car will not be a trailer queen, I'm going to drive the piss out of it.
Car has been in a barn in CA since 1975, when I located it through a friend. Buyers were lining up, thankfully the seller sold it to me because he knew I would not poor boy the restoration.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1415747172.jpg
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1415747205.jpg
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1415747233.jpg
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1415747262.jpg
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1415747287.jpg
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1415747347.jpg

Putting the black plates and dealer frame back on I hope?

LakeCleElum 11-12-2014 12:37 PM

Look at the history of the 356 market over the past 20 years.....The bubble does not "POP"

It's a rachet effect......3 steps forward and maybe one back, then repeat........If waiting for the "pop" to get a deal, don't wait too long........

PushingMyLuck 11-14-2014 07:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by David W (Post 8096897)
As a student of history I have found the human race tends to follow a pattern. I loved to race/work on/drive the 911 for decades. One part of me likes to see my small collection explode in value, but that is not the main reason I have them. Now acquiring another is becoming unlikely, I wont chase with the crowd. A bit sad.

An interesting but more dramatic parallel:
Tulip mania - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Yes, some other readers finally are aware this is a bubble.
Assets don’t double in 3 years with no change in the fundamentals.

Quote:

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck (Post 8028892)
Bash,

I have seen many more cars coming to market than a month ago.
Sellers are indeed taking advantage of this 100% spike in prices.
However, the flippers are crawling everywhere now. Bubble market.
A fairly priced car will literally be sold to a flipper within hours.
Then the car is then relisted at the top end of market.
Be patient, and you'll eventually find a non-dealer car FSBO that you like.
The best attitude to have it a take it or leave it.
This is bubble territory, so hold your ground.

Quote:

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck (Post 8020519)
Do some research on bubbles.
There is a famous saying "bubbles tend to last far longer and grow much larger than most anyone expects".

The bubble is at the top when it is INCONCEIVABLE that prices can go down.
When surgeons quit their jobs in order to flip Porsches.

See the chart below:
http://blog.stocktwits.com/wp-conten...l_15986178.png

Quote:

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck (Post 8018386)
The mistake everyone makes is giving reasons that were just as valid 5 years ago, when these cars were selling for $12k.
So, it's not low production number that caused prices to spike. The the 5 years bull market.

The bubble will deflate once the stock market corrects and the economy goes south.
That is what caused the inflation, and is what will cause the deflation.

Low production numbers were low when 3.2's were selling for $12k.
That is NOT the reason they are now high in price.

Quote:

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck (Post 7964139)
COLB, what you ignore are the macro variables at play.
The very same production numbers dictated an equilibrium price 50% lower just a few years ago.
Therefore, they are not the reason why prices have spiked since, and can not be a justification for current prices.
As we've discussed, "It's the economy, stupid" that is fueling the demand side.
Any asset price that rises 50% in 2 years with no change to the fundamentals is suspect.


GG Allin 11-14-2014 07:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LakeCleElum (Post 8350206)
Look at the history of the 356 market over the past 20 years.....The bubble does not "POP"

It's a rachet effect......3 steps forward and maybe one back, then repeat........If waiting for the "pop" to get a deal, don't wait too long........

Yeah, but I'd rather be cash ready next time the economy takes a crap than buy now.

trader220 11-17-2014 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GG Allin (Post 8348977)
Once the bubble does pop, I'm gettin' me a $45K Turbo 3.6.

Dont hold your breath waiting, we'd hate to lose you.

afterburn 549 12-08-2014 03:41 AM

Right now you can buy a pretty good 911 between 10K and 20K. Plenty of them at the 30K mark.
So..they have dropped a bit .
The extra special ones will be for ever out of sight RSR RST and such.

Rick V 12-08-2014 03:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deschodt (Post 8341973)
in an era of minivans that can trounce those cars,

People who don't know these cars are always bringing this up. A well tuned civic can cut one of these cars in half and hand you change. I try to explain that it isn't about simple speed off the line, it is a total package and what will the civic be in thirty years?
I usually just end up shaking my head and ending the conversation with I just like my Porsches.

sc_rufctr 12-08-2014 05:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by LakeCleElum (Post 8350206)
Look at the history of the 356 market over the past 20 years.....The bubble does not "POP"

It's a rachet effect......3 steps forward and maybe one back, then repeat........If waiting for the "pop" to get a deal, don't wait too long........

This I agree with and the history of the 356 is about all we have to go by.

They are just stupid money locally. You can't get anything decent for under $75,000 and that buys you a rough later car.
Anything in decent condition from the 50s can be well over $150,000.

Deschodt 12-08-2014 06:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rick V (Post 8386598)
People who don't know these cars are always bringing this up. A well tuned civic can cut one of these cars in half and hand you change. I try to explain that it isn't about simple speed off the line, it is a total package and what will the civic be in thirty years?
I usually just end up shaking my head and ending the conversation with I just like my Porsches.

That's not my point exactly. I know these cars fairly well... My minivan point was about early Ts vs S. Back in the day, the S was the "top dog". Nowadays, a minivan will beat them *all* off the line, T/E/S, even a 2.7RS I guess, so pure performance it not the thing anymore, it's about the feel and fun of actually "driving" an older car with "power-nothing". So given the crazy prices on S models, people should not pass on Ts. Not only are they less peaky, when the time comes it's really not that much more expensive to rebuild them with S specs if that's your thing...

I'd extend the point to 912s. A nicely setup SWB 912 with a big bore kit (most have one by now) is a really fun car, twitchy but with less weight in the back than its 911 sister so fun-twitchy, not crap-your-pants-twitchy ;-) Go get them while you can. Couldn't agree more with LakeCleElum's point. 3 steps fwd and one back. Maybe 1/2 a step back this time, there are still no good alternative investments. And gas is cheap lately !!

Deschodt 12-08-2014 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 126coupe (Post 8348958)
The shop down the street from my man cave is getting north of 300K for perfectly restored long hoods. "S" models 400K

3 to 400K, really ? Really ? I don't doubt they told you that, I have to wonder if that's true.... even SCM doesn't go that high ! Man !!!


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