When will the 911 bubble pop???

[group911@aol.co]

Porsche 911 Coupe | eBay
Porsche 911 Carrera | eBay
Porsche 911 Carrera Convertible 2 Door | eBay
Porsche 911 Carrera Targa | eBay

Originally Posted by fintstone

I have to agree to disagree with you guys. I don't belive folks are getting close to $50K for 3.2s (except in very rare cases)...even pristine ones...or SCs for over $30K.

[fintstone]

I concede...assuming they are actually able to collect on those auctions.

On the bright side...I believe my Carrera to be slightly superior to most of those (just a bit higher mileage...Over 80K)...so I am happy to be wrong.

[bivenator]

Each of the cars you linked to except the last were under 50k milage. The prices for all were not 50k. I will agree that prices have gone up but I don't expect I could get 30 for my 160k car. 88 coupe with most common upgrades.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

The scam is not the description, it's the bidding.

[Rick V]

When I bought my SC ten years ago it was all original, and I have kept it that way for a reason. I don't have any delusions that I will be selling it for a house any time soon but it does make me feel god to know I did make the right choices.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Having spent 2 months finding a G50 coupe for a friend, prices have gone up but you can still get a truly excellent car for just over 30k. My friend was kicking himself for turning down the 70k mile excellent 87 for $32k until I found him a very nice 87 with new top end done by an excellent shop with a host "while you are in there" stuff for a purchase price of $29k which would have been $26k two years ago. Good deals in G50s if you are ok with the modest price bump. We missed several cars by timing alone.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by Shaun 84 Targa

Having spent 2 months finding a G50 coupe for a friend, prices have gone up but you can still get a truly excellent car for just over 30k. My friend was kicking himself for turning down the 70k mile excellent 87 for $32k until I found him a very nice 87 with new top end done by an excellent shop with a host "while you are in there" stuff for a purchase price of $29k which would have been $26k two years ago. Good deals in G50s if you are ok with the modest price bump. We missed several cars by timing alone.

This is more what I expected from what I have seen.

[SilberUrS6]

Originally Posted by Shaun 84 Targa

Having spent 2 months finding a G50 coupe for a friend, prices have gone up but you can still get a truly excellent car for just over 30k.

The trick is, you have to work at it, and be quick with the money.

Just like two years ago, you could get a good G50 for $20k, if you were patient and quick with the money.

I have seen the retail outlets like Mohr advertise these cars in the $60k region!

[scottmandue]

To answer the OP my uneducated opinion is it is not a 911 thing... 60's Vettes are going for six figures... this is just "classic car" mania. Not necessarily a good or bad thing just what the market will bring for these cars right now might go on forever... market might turn around (down) in a few years, only time will tell.

Kind of a drag for us car guys, I had my heart set on a 911T... I guess I will have to console myself with the dream of getting a 996 someday instead.

[motion]

Couldn't agree with Wayne more. I chose motorcycles because they're small and easy to work on. I'm seeing 100% appreciation on my purchases over the past few years, and I expect it to keep going. Collectables of all types are hot right now.

[group911@aol.co]

So, mid to upper $40's ain't close to $50k?

Originally Posted by bivenator

Each of the cars you linked to except the last were under 50k milage. The prices for all were not 50k. I will agree that prices have gone up but I don't expect I could get 30 for my 160k car. 88 coupe with most common upgrades.

[Reiver]

Well, I'm old enough to remember when folks were saying the same thing about 356's and early 911's....this is a bubble, won't last....yada, yada, yada......

Special and unique cars will eventually bring special and unique prices...air cooled 6's are in that category and when they reach a certain age will start up that ladder.
We're just at the bottom rungs for the impact bumper cars....keep them.

[BE911SC]

Originally Posted by Wayne at Pelican Parts

I've mentioned this before in posts, and it's just my opinion, but I think that inflation is here and active in the high end of almost all collectible markets. With the stock market at all time highs (due to cheap money floating around), and banks actually charging people to store their money (see article Friday in WSJ), there's no incentive to "save" money via traditional channels (interest bearing accounts, bonds, etc.). So, this money has to go somewhere. So, people with money appear to be purchasing hard assets (cars, art, real estate) which is then pushing prices higher every day. I've been buying cars now heavily for the past 5 years because I thought they were better investments than the stock market or bonds, etc. I've also bought some real estate. The mantra is to borrow as much as you can at low *fixed* rates these days, as the impending inflation is coming soon. There's all this talk about deflation, and the like, but the fact of the matter is that the money supply has been expanded significantly, and there's more money now chasing a fixed number of assets. That is why, in my opinion, we've seen such gains in the car market. It's a neat asset that is appreciating, and it's way more fun to own than stocks or bonds!

-Wayne

"You can't drive your money." -Jerry Seinfeld.

[A horse with no name]

Originally Posted by LeeH

I bought my '72 for $12K and sold it for $24K. Can't imagine what it would bring today.

No offence meant but I owned two 911T's; a '70 & a '71 and both had 2.2 litre motors.

The 1st 3 litre was in a Turbo in 1975 and in 1978 all naturally aspirated engines were 3. litre.

As a matter of interest, I restored the '70 911 T - a 10-10 job in 1980 and sold it for $13,500.00 in 1983.

[Rick Lee]

Time to get the 993 ready for sale.

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by scottmandue

To answer the OP my uneducated opinion is it is not a 911 thing... 60's Vettes are going for six figures... this is just "classic car" mania. Not necessarily a good or bad thing just what the market will bring for these cars right now might go on forever... market might turn around (down) in a few years, only time will tell.

"Go on forever." No.

It's amazing how markets and bubbles are. Many might remember the infamous "RE Prices NEVER Go Down" thread here on PPOT. During the last real estate bubble 8 or so years ago. It was amazing. 95% of the posters here claimed that real estate prices NEVER go down. Because, "they're not making it any more."

That, of course, ignored the many RE bubbles that had inflated and deflated in the past. Weird, and a complete denial of history.

So, people (in PPOT and the world in general) were buying overpriced bubble houses in Las Vegas, Phoenix, Port St. Lucie, $700K houses in Albuqurque, etc. Only to pay the price for not learning from history.

Anyone who has been around long enough and invested (in anything) long enough, and has any common sense, knows that all asset classes rise and fall over time. Always and forever.

It's the nature of money and investing. It flows from one thing to the next, in cycles.

I agree the current car market isn't a "911" thing, it's the collector car market as a whole.

But, it's nothing new. It hasn't happened to 911s before, but that's mainly because of their age. They were too young and plentiful during the last few collector car bubbles. Air cooled is special now, but it wasn't when they were still being made, all the way up to the late 90s. And, there were so many made (by collectibility standards).

But it has happened with other cars, big time. In the late 80s, Ferrari 308s were selling for $125K, and Dinos for $250K+ (in late 80s dollars). They "weren't making them anymore" after all. But those Ferrari prices popped, and that same $125K 308 eventually became a $25K 308. And the $250K dino became a $75K dino.

And, of course, the American muscle car bubble. Huge 6 figures cars collapsed in price.

This is no different. No speculator asset stays up "forever."

The 74 US Carrera is a good example. Someone who pays $150K for a 175 hp US model CIS injected 911 is going to lose their shirt.

[LeeH]

Originally Posted by A horse with no name

No offence meant but I owned two 911T's; a '70 & a '71 and both had 2.2 litre motors.

The 1st 3 litre was in a Turbo in 1975 and in 1978 all naturally aspirated engines were 3. litre.

As a matter of interest, I restored the '70 911 T - a 10-10 job in 1980 and sold it for $13,500.00 in 1983.

This is a different '72 911 than the one referenced in my signature. The tangerine car in the pic had the original 2.4L with mechanical fuel injection.

[fintstone]

While I believe the market strong, I think some folks will have to wait a very, very long time to make any money on the top dollar purchase of fairly common cars. Guys like Wayne who can afford very special cars are likely different due to the relative scarcity and the folks who can buy what they wat, regardless of cost. A $125K midyear US Carrera or a $50K+ 3.2 car will likely be worth less before they are worth more (unless inflation goes berserk). That said, there seem to be people out there now that are willing to pay some pretty high prices for these cars now...but like someone said, they seem a lot like the folks in Vegas who were trying to get in before the price was out of theur reach. All assumed they would be rewarded handsomely. My $700K house in Vegas is almost worth $400K now...and some day, it may be worth $800K, but the carrying costs will be over a million by then. Obviously, I should have invested in longhoods then...but I needed a place to live.

[speeder]

One problem would have been walking into a bank and asking for a 30 year loan @ 4% for $700k to buy old Porsches.

[SilberUrS6]

Originally Posted by fintstone

Obviously, I should have invested in longhoods then...but I needed a place to live.

That is really the big difference. Real estate can actually be useful while you're holding it. A gaggle of longhoods? Well, maybe to some guy in Sheridan, WY, but not to real folks with limited storage.

There has always been the tension for us car guys about the cars we'd like to buy and the means to keep them nice. A couple of years ago, I had a shot at a SWB longhood 912 for $8500. But nowhere to keep it. Sure, I could have parked it on my lawn, but dang, what civilized person does that kind of crap? OK, I could have rented a storage unit and stored it to the tune of $1500 per annum. And now I could sell it for between $20-30k. Sure, I would have ultimately made money. But I'm not a flipper nor a guy who wants to work the arbitrage on collector assets. I like DRIVING. That longhood 912 was actually a pretty sweet machine. And if I could, right now, trade straight across for my 3.2, I would do it in a second. But because I love to drive these cars, I'd want them both, and not sell, no matter what the market.

Along with the two VWs I sold, and the Chevy II that I sold, and the old GMC pickup I sold...

If I had held on to all those cars, I might have a very serious nest egg. But where to keep them? And how to avoid the fact I love to drive them, not store them? LMAO.