When will the 911 bubble pop???

[tabs]

The question becomes, are the Long Hoods an iconic car? The answer is yes they are. Are there a LIMITED number of S's and E's that have survived relatively intact after long years of abuse and neglect? Why yes there are few original cars left after, rust, wrecks, engine swaps and Turboizing them...Is there a lot of world wide demand for those cars? WHY YES there is...

All of this equates to prices that are here to stay and go even higher...

[Sicklyscott]

this discussion often makes me wonder how much backdated cars will be worth in the future. At some point the generation that grew up in the 80's will be throwing their money in the ring (10-15 years from now?) and all these SCs and Carreras that were backdated to STs, RSs, or RSRs may end up being worth less.

My car has been "turboized" minus the motor. I paid extra for that look but think in the end it's not worth as much as a clean original car from that year.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by Sicklyscott

this discussion often makes me wonder how much backdated cars will be worth in the future. At some point the generation that grew up in the 80's will be throwing their money in the ring (10-15 years from now?) and all these SCs and Carreras that were backdated to STs, RSs, or RSRs may end up being worth less.

My car has been "turboized" minus the motor. I paid extra for that look but think in the end it's not worth as much as a clean original car from that year.

Yup. Follow the generation with money. Right now the children from the 1960s and 1970s are in their prime money earning years, so the 1960-1970 muscle and sports cars are hot. Meanwhile, the market for t-buckets and 1957 Chevys seems to be rapidly cooling. As my generation (born 1980) starts moving into their late 30s and 40s the market for the SC, Carrera, Testarossa, 5.0 Mustang, and other noteworthy cars of the era will continue getting hotter.

[Deschodt]

Originally Posted by tabs

Are there a LIMITED number of S's and E's that have survived relatively intact after long years of abuse and neglect?

Don't be ignoring the Ts ;-) I've driven S, T and E of similar'ish vintage (close enough to be relevant). Honestly now, if money was not a factor (S are 2 to 3x more expensive) the one I'd get for everyday driving is the 2.4T (Ok, not a Euro 68T, I'll admit that's too close to a 912). It's fun most of the time, more torque, no muss no fuss. The S zings in the upper range, but you don't get to "zing" it every day without getting pulled over... in an era of minivans that can trounce those cars, I would take whichever I could afford.. Heck I like 912s most of all despite the earlier joke - 80% of the fun for 20% of the price, as I call them... since those things are no longer the top of the pile anyway, they're plenty sufficient for fun drives....

I see asking prices for S models that make me wanna hug a 912.

[dagriff]

My 77 euro spec 2.7 is going on the boat back to the U.K. in January.
A friend is putting it in his showroom for a while. If it doesn't sell from there, it's going in a Classic auction.
He thinks it should easily go for at least 20-25 u.k.p. There are very few unmolested, straight and non-rusty mid years available there. (plenty of real dogs).
Unless anyone here wan't to buy it.........

[Miguel Antonett]

Never!!!

[126coupe]

The shop down the street from my man cave is getting north of 300K for perfectly restored long hoods. "S" models 400K, Im am so likely I found my barn find 1969 911S Targa over 2 years ago for a song, original owner, numbers matching. Looking forward to its completion. This car will not be a trailer queen, I'm going to drive the piss out of it.
Car has been in a barn in CA since 1975, when I located it through a friend. Buyers were lining up, thankfully the seller sold it to me because he knew I would not poor boy the restoration.

[GG Allin]

Once the bubble does pop, I'm gettin' me a $45K Turbo 3.6.

[126coupe]

Originally Posted by GG Allin

Once the bubble does pop, I'm gettin' me a $45K Turbo 3.6.

I missed the market on a 930 Turbo, one of my favorites

[jwasbury]

Originally Posted by GG Allin

Once the bubble does pop, I'm gettin' me a $45K Turbo 3.6.

^good call.

I'll take one too...in Signal Green.

[BE911SC]

Originally Posted by 126coupe

The shop down the street from my man cave is getting north of 300K for perfectly restored long hoods. "S" models 400K, Im am so likely I found my barn find 1969 911S Targa over 2 years ago for a song, original owner, numbers matching. Looking forward to its completion. This car will not be a trailer queen, I'm going to drive the piss out of it.
Car has been in a barn in CA since 1975, when I located it through a friend. Buyers were lining up, thankfully the seller sold it to me because he knew I would not poor boy the restoration.

Putting the black plates and dealer frame back on I hope?

[LakeCleElum]

Look at the history of the 356 market over the past 20 years.....The bubble does not "POP"

It's a rachet effect......3 steps forward and maybe one back, then repeat........If waiting for the "pop" to get a deal, don't wait too long........

[PushingMyLuck]

Originally Posted by David W

As a student of history I have found the human race tends to follow a pattern. I loved to race/work on/drive the 911 for decades. One part of me likes to see my small collection explode in value, but that is not the main reason I have them. Now acquiring another is becoming unlikely, I wont chase with the crowd. A bit sad.

An interesting but more dramatic parallel:
Tulip mania - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Yes, some other readers finally are aware this is a bubble.
Assets don’t double in 3 years with no change in the fundamentals.

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck

Bash,

I have seen many more cars coming to market than a month ago.
Sellers are indeed taking advantage of this 100% spike in prices.
However, the flippers are crawling everywhere now. Bubble market.
A fairly priced car will literally be sold to a flipper within hours.
Then the car is then relisted at the top end of market.
Be patient, and you'll eventually find a non-dealer car FSBO that you like.
The best attitude to have it a take it or leave it.
This is bubble territory, so hold your ground.

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck

Do some research on bubbles.
There is a famous saying "bubbles tend to last far longer and grow much larger than most anyone expects".

The bubble is at the top when it is INCONCEIVABLE that prices can go down.
When surgeons quit their jobs in order to flip Porsches.

See the chart below:

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck

The mistake everyone makes is giving reasons that were just as valid 5 years ago, when these cars were selling for $12k.
So, it's not low production number that caused prices to spike. The the 5 years bull market.

The bubble will deflate once the stock market corrects and the economy goes south.
That is what caused the inflation, and is what will cause the deflation.

Low production numbers were low when 3.2's were selling for $12k.
That is NOT the reason they are now high in price.

Originally Posted by PushingMyLuck

COLB, what you ignore are the macro variables at play.
The very same production numbers dictated an equilibrium price 50% lower just a few years ago.
Therefore, they are not the reason why prices have spiked since, and can not be a justification for current prices.
As we've discussed, "It's the economy, stupid" that is fueling the demand side.
Any asset price that rises 50% in 2 years with no change to the fundamentals is suspect.

[GG Allin]

Originally Posted by LakeCleElum

Look at the history of the 356 market over the past 20 years.....The bubble does not "POP"

It's a rachet effect......3 steps forward and maybe one back, then repeat........If waiting for the "pop" to get a deal, don't wait too long........

Yeah, but I'd rather be cash ready next time the economy takes a crap than buy now.

[trader220]

Originally Posted by GG Allin

Once the bubble does pop, I'm gettin' me a $45K Turbo 3.6.

Dont hold your breath waiting, we'd hate to lose you.

[afterburn 549]

Right now you can buy a pretty good 911 between 10K and 20K. Plenty of them at the 30K mark.
So..they have dropped a bit .
The extra special ones will be for ever out of sight RSR RST and such.

[Rick V]

Originally Posted by Deschodt

in an era of minivans that can trounce those cars,

People who don't know these cars are always bringing this up. A well tuned civic can cut one of these cars in half and hand you change. I try to explain that it isn't about simple speed off the line, it is a total package and what will the civic be in thirty years?
I usually just end up shaking my head and ending the conversation with I just like my Porsches.

[sc_rufctr]

Originally Posted by LakeCleElum

Look at the history of the 356 market over the past 20 years.....The bubble does not "POP"

It's a rachet effect......3 steps forward and maybe one back, then repeat........If waiting for the "pop" to get a deal, don't wait too long........

This I agree with and the history of the 356 is about all we have to go by.

They are just stupid money locally. You can't get anything decent for under $75,000 and that buys you a rough later car.
Anything in decent condition from the 50s can be well over $150,000.

[Deschodt]

Originally Posted by Rick V

People who don't know these cars are always bringing this up. A well tuned civic can cut one of these cars in half and hand you change. I try to explain that it isn't about simple speed off the line, it is a total package and what will the civic be in thirty years?
I usually just end up shaking my head and ending the conversation with I just like my Porsches.

That's not my point exactly. I know these cars fairly well... My minivan point was about early Ts vs S. Back in the day, the S was the "top dog". Nowadays, a minivan will beat them *all* off the line, T/E/S, even a 2.7RS I guess, so pure performance it not the thing anymore, it's about the feel and fun of actually "driving" an older car with "power-nothing". So given the crazy prices on S models, people should not pass on Ts. Not only are they less peaky, when the time comes it's really not that much more expensive to rebuild them with S specs if that's your thing...

I'd extend the point to 912s. A nicely setup SWB 912 with a big bore kit (most have one by now) is a really fun car, twitchy but with less weight in the back than its 911 sister so fun-twitchy, not crap-your-pants-twitchy ;-) Go get them while you can. Couldn't agree more with LakeCleElum's point. 3 steps fwd and one back. Maybe 1/2 a step back this time, there are still no good alternative investments. And gas is cheap lately !!

[Deschodt]

Originally Posted by 126coupe

The shop down the street from my man cave is getting north of 300K for perfectly restored long hoods. "S" models 400K

3 to 400K, really ? Really ? I don't doubt they told you that, I have to wonder if that's true.... even SCM doesn't go that high ! Man !!!