Personal observations of the economy

[Tilikum Turbo]

Looking away from political diatribes about who's minding the store, and political affiliations...

Anything unusual you notice(personal level) over the past few years that don't make sense?

A lot of my friends(both trade people and professionals) cannot find work(yet unemployment is less than 6%).

A jewelry store I deal with says business over the past two years in unlike anything he's seen in 40 years.

Food: seeing food items DOUBLE in 1 year...a small roast I saw the other day...$34??...is this Canada?!

Friend at fresh and easy(works there 4 years) says as soon as they set out the marked down goods, they are gone within 15 minutes instead of 4-8 hours.

Strange days.

[Jim Richards]

Our expenses haven't changed much over the last few years except for the swings in gasoline prices. Groceries aren't much different over all. All my friends and family seem positive on how things are going for them.

Pleasant days.

[pavulon]

Times are good for many businesses and business owners. Most employees are not in the good times.

[Don Ro]

I've noticed the cost of groceries rising markedly over the past 5 - 6 yrs.
I bought a slab of Halibut recently at Costco - $37.
Anyone notice the increase in the cost of beef?
My DirecTV bill increases ~ 2% - 3% every six months.
Metal stock...especially copper.
Batteries, as well.
.
etc., etc., etc.

[RANDY P]

groceries HAVE increased, gas is through the roof, and ya despite what the news says it sux.

rjp

[jyl]

A broad statistic like GDP growth doesn't show the imbalances in the economy.

The major imbalances in the US economy currently are:

1. Business doing better than consumer. Corporate profits and margins have grown very strongly and are at record levels. Measures of individual wage growth have been stagnant. "Capital" is making out like bandits, "labor" is not sharing in the gains.

2. Big business doing better than small. Very low borrowing rates, easily available capital, technology driven productivity, tax reduction schemes, low cost overseas production, accessible overseas markets - these are all available to large companies, but much less so to small companies and barely at all to mom and pops.

3. Income inequality getting more extreme. The wealthiest Americans are taking an ever larger share of income and assets, the poor and middle class an ever smaller share, and the ultra wealthy are doing the best. The top 0.1% have 20% of all wealth in the US, much more than the bottom 90%. Interestingly, the 1% to 0.1% group is not gaining that much in wealth, the big gains are at the ultra rich level. Income inequality is at levels not seen since the 1920s, just before the Great Depression.

4. Employment rate very different among classes. Look up unemployment among the young, certain minorities, less educated and compare to unemployment among the older, other races, and highly educated. The differences are huge and growing.

Thus the economy is booming for a few people, doing okay for some others, and still tough for many others.

This economy is, in some sense, a test of "trickle down" theory - increase wealth at the top levels of the economy, billionaires and CEOs and so on, and the gains will trickle down to the average Joe and Juan and then to the poor. After five years of economic recovery, you can judge how much is trickling down.

[jcommin]

Hoping this doesn't go to PARF

Businesses are generally feeling positive. My son is in the scrap business, primarily industrial: he doesn't do street trade or cash business - he has added another driver and truck. Machinery dealers are booked.

Automotive sales are in good shape ( I work in the automotive industry). The commercial side of automotive is positive too.

What is not: salaries are stagnant, health care cost are up. There is a huge gap between unskilled and skilled labor. And I don't see it ending anytime soon. Entry level manufacturing jobs pay no better than retail or fast food. I have seen failure of those who can't pass 8th grade reading, writing and math. Those who can, most can pass a pre-screening background or drug test. Those that do stay, 90% leave within a year.

What I also see is the Chinese Government now wants a piece (ownership- joint venture) of companies in their country. I'm also seeing those who my company has partnered with are now becoming our competitors.

To quote Dottore " I weep for America".

If you look at history, those who had the technological edge, stay in power - you lose it, you are just another me too.

[creaturecat]

The value of a dollar is a joke, now.
Canadian beer pricing example: when I was 20, I earned 8.50/hr. Beer - 6 bucks for a 24.
At age 60, 28/hr. Beer - 50 bucks for a 24.

Beer : ~ 800 % increase
Wages : ~ 300 % increase.




I bought a brand new car, in 1972, for 1800 HUNDRED dollars. Sure, it was a Pinto, nevertheless ......

How can the low wage earners feed their families, given the present situation? Beats me.

[intakexhaust]

Quick observations:

Healthcare- no brainer.

Pension management by companies.... public and private look troubling.

Outrageous cost of higher education and college. Also, education / College loans is another entire and troubling topic.

Utilities:
In the last 4 years, far more new third billing utility companies. Big scam to local gov. and the public. Also many newly created taxes plus increase on existing, stacking surcharges on all utilities, mobile phones, etc..

Retail:
Target closing some stores including in large metro areas > underperforming.
Walmart making noise of just the same, although are keeping the shelves maxed.
The SSS Operation> Really super shorting staff of clerks and customer helpers at Home Depot and Walmart. Funny though that they are strong with stockers.
Big office supply store retailers look fragile.

Dead commercial real estate. Cities and towns, including affluent areas have abandoned big box stores.

Inflated tangibles. Crazy inflated food prices. All BS. The futures trading doesn't equate to what market prices finally become when reaching shelves. Surplus crops in the last few years, including imports. Furthermore, suppliers use the excuse that the cost of fuel has raised the price of distribution. Well then how do you explain when the price of oil and fuel is lowering by considerable amounts vs. last ytd? Especially the drastic drop by the Saudis of which will continue late into 2016.

Buying into the word 'organic' is the new dope for you sheep.

Lastly- Fairly obvious and always been a scam but believing in competition between banks is so absurd today. The 'so called gov. watchdog groups' are criminals. Behind door agreements and trade shenanigans are finally being acknowledged and exposed. Doubt any fines levied will even matter. They'll only pass it onto us or shareholders. What to do? Yank them from their jobs and lock them up without parole.

Oh and one more observation. Apparently, Kim Kardashians big ass is more important to Americans. Thanks to the many, shes making millions on it. Additionally her stoopido app is making millions. I guess being the big ass pays off these days.

[nostatic]

Originally Posted by Tilikum Turbo

Anything unusual you notice(personal level) over the past few years that don't make sense?

Not unusual for SoCal, but remains unusual from a logic standpoint. Housing prices are spiking again and I don't understand how it is any way sustainable. Nothing under $1M in my neighborhood (which isn't particularly upscale). Basically it is a case of now the only people who can get into the market are those coming from some other over-priced area or with a *lot* of capital.

Car sales/leases seem to be strong here (I'm doing my part ). I don't notice food prices as being that high (depends where you shop), and gas is lower than it has been in a couple of years.

Jobwise we hire on the higher end of the market (specialize tech) and it can be tough to find people that fit the bill.

I keep expecting the whole thing to crash but the house or cards keeps moving forward. I'm not seeing any trickle down though. My salary has been flat for 2 years as our core budget has been flat (actually cut a bit with sequestration) but we're increased salaries for most everyone else in the building. Senior management didn't take raises and we get no bonuses. Problem is at some point you price yourself out of competition as labor is our primary cost on projects and the more you pay people, the more you have to charge. I just promoted one of my people and she got a decent salary bump. I warned her though - now she has to bring in more business to support herself as she's now more expensive. And if she doesn't, she won't have a job.

Could be better...could be worse...

[Jim Richards]

I recently added a junior (but not entry level) engineer to my staff. I probably won't increase my staff in 2015.

[wdfifteen]

Business activity up, most costs flat to slightly up, travel and entertainment through the roof. It's a mixed bag.

[Oh Haha]

Gas is down, groceries are up.

[Chocaholic]

I work for a capital equipment company in medical imaging. Times are very tough. Uncertainty in the future and the significant cuts in reimbursement are stalling new equipment purchases, R&D and adoption of new technologies.

On a personal level...cell phone bill $260/mo (5 smart phones) is outrageous. Food prices going up steadily, at $3/gallon+ gas is taking a huge bite compared to a few years ago. And of course, much instability in employment has many talented people on the street or worried about same.

Had some good years up until around 2008. Very tough since then.

[zelrik911]

Originally Posted by nostatic

. Housing prices are spiking again and I don't understand how it is any way sustainable. Nothing under $1M in my neighborhood (which isn't particularly upscale). Basically it is a case of now the only people who can get into the market are those coming from some other over-priced area or with a *lot* of capital.

Could be better...could be worse...

I find threads like these really helpful as they are full of honest observations and mostly opposite to crap Official pronouncements.

In the nice neighborhoods in the Australian cities, it is the mainland Chinese multi-millionaires who have a *lot* of capital and are buying like crazy. Here, its a Chinese 'funny-money' led recovery.

I worry that the US could gradually morph into another UK (England) where royalty and a few lords-of- the-realm own most everything and everybody else just works to sustain their lifestyles.

[ckelly78z]

Originally Posted by Oh Haha

Gas is down, groceries are up.

This is because they are using 6 million bushels of corn in every ethanol producing plant in the United States.....this equals about a full land mass of a rural county in Ohio or Iowa.

The corn should be feeding people and animals, not cars.

[sugarwood]

Originally Posted by Tilikum Turbo

A jewelry store I deal with says business over the past two years in unlike anything he's seen in 40 years.

Like, they're selling a lot or a little ?

[strupgolf]

I was in rural Nebraska recently and have to say it's not looking good. Farms are great, but no manufacturing to speak of. Towns are loosing people and businesses. Schools are getting smaller. Illeagals make up 90% of meat etc. packing houses. If King0 gives them all a free pass, watch wages to stay low, no hiking to $15/hour. The real unemployment IMO, has to be 10%.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Underemployment is still high. Thankfully construction looks like it's solidifying.

[Nickshu]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

Underemployment is still high. Thankfully construction looks like it's solidifying.

This. As corporate big box stores and imports have basically eliminated manufacturing and small businesses where people could work and build wealth, many of the jobs which have been "created" to improve the employment numbers are low paying jobs which do not create a sense of self-pride or legacy-building. Just an hourly paycheck to pay the iPhone bill, and a box checked in the politicians "job creation" database, regardless of the quality or value of the job. Underemployed pretty much sums it up.