Baylor, Stanford, etc. it is nothing new

[glewis80SC]

One of my friends at work daughter was sexually assaulted at her college this year, by a swim team member I guess this school has a history of trouble with the swim team. School went after her to keep it hush hush complete BS. My daughter starts college in 2017 I'm really worried about it.

[notfarnow]

Originally Posted by fintstone

How could we ever know if false accusations are 5% and unreported tapes are 85%...if unreported? These are just manufactured statistics to further a cause.

For the US, the higher estimate of false accusations in 8%, by the FBI. That statistic includes instances where they consider the accusation UNFOUNDED (it appears the victim didn't fight back, can't prove force was used). Do you think the FBI is inclined to "manufacture" their statistic?

[Otter74]

Originally Posted by notfarnow

For the US, the higher estimate of false accusations in 8%, by the FBI. That statistic includes instances where they consider the accusation UNFOUNDED (it appears the victim didn't fight back, can't prove force was used). Do you think the FBI is inclined to "manufacture" their statistic?

I'm not criticizing your characterization per se (it's secondhand report of a statistic) but it is worth pointing out that the fact that a rape victim did not fight back does not mean she was not raped.

[notfarnow]

Originally Posted by Otter74

I'm not criticizing your characterization per se (it's secondhand report of a statistic) but it is worth pointing out that the fact that a rape victim did not fight back does not mean she was not raped.

Exactly right, which is why the FBI's 8% stat is often criticized as being distorted. Most organizations that study it closely put it at 2-5%

[AFC-911]

You know. If I was a parent and my son did this, I would not make a plea like Brock Turner's dad did. I'd probably say "You f-ed up, I taught you better than that. Go serve the time you get."

Again, that's my gut reaction as a non-parent.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by fintstone

I don't think this is quite accurate. The incidence of rape is quite low in the military (unless you multiply the actual number times some huge nonsense multiplier that represents unreported cases to make it seem that way)...and almost nonexistent in some services (compared to the same age group and living condition in society). The "majority" are not male-on-male in any service (especially when you consider the much larger percentage of males)...although it is up significant this administration since "don't ask don't tell" became "gays are us" and being openly gay has become celebrated and popularized both in the military and Federal service with a huge emphasis on making gays and transsexuals another group deserving of "extra" opportunity. Much effort and money is spent on constant gay pride training, events, groups, months, etc. to celebrate gayness much like we celebrate women who report sexual harassment (whether a reasonable person would think it occurred or not). Make anything popular enough or supported by leadership enough and you will end up with more of it. We used to encourage bravery, leadership and efficiency.

Where do you get your data?

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by fintstone

How could we ever know if false accusations are 5% and unreported tapes are 85%...if unreported? These are just manufactured statistics to further a cause.

What cause?

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by AFC-911

You know. If I was a parent and my son did this, I would not make a plea like Brock Turner's dad did. I'd probably say "You f-ed up, I taught you better than that. Go serve the time you get."

Or at least, "That's a hard sentence for 20 minutes of felonious behavior."
OTOH, being labeled as a sex offender for the rest of your life for a first offense of this kind is pretty steep. A problem with this is a drunk kid molesting a drunk girl is not the same as a repeat sexual predator stalking and preying on vulnerable sober women, but the primary punishment (a lifetime of registering as a sex offender) is similar. I think this minimizes the seriousness of the predator's crimes. A bank robber can get 10 years in prison and he's done. This kid is a pariah the rest of his life. I would like to see more prison time for him, and when he's out he can start a new life.

[AFC-911]

So what?

There are teens who are pariahs for doing statutory rape for the rest of their lives even if it were consensual.

I can't condone what something like what Brock did. First time or not. Alcohol or not. He f-ed up and I won't stand behind that.

Say I killed someone while drunk. Do you think I deserve more leniency than someone who committed a similar crime while sober? I don't think that should be used as an excuse. You made the choices you made and now you lie in it.

[rattlsnak]

Unfortunately, a timely thread. My GF's bestie just got drugged/raped last week in Miami. She went out to a local pub after work to grab a bite to eat and someone bought her a drink. Literally the next thing she remembers is waking up in her hotel room several hours later with no clothes on and very sore and bleeding in 'many places'. She went to the hospital, got a rape kit and they tested her urine and sure enough, she had been drugged. What a piece of total SH#T that guy is..
Oh, and she is 41, so doesn't just happen to the younger girls..

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

Where do you get your data?

The DoD report that they do each year.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by notfarnow

For the US, the higher estimate of false accusations in 8%, by the FBI. That statistic includes instances where they consider the accusation UNFOUNDED (it appears the victim didn't fight back, can't prove force was used). Do you think the FBI is inclined to "manufacture" their statistic?

They are not statistics, they are estimates....which are informed guesses. There is no way of knowing how many rapes occurred that were not reported (because they were not reported)...or how many false accusations there were...since all would be he said, she said unless one confessed.

[notfarnow]

Just so I understand, is it your belief that the US department of Justice "manufactured statistics to further a cause"?

https://www.nsopw.gov/en-CA/Education/FactsStatistics

If so, what "cause" do you think they are promoting, and to what end?

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by notfarnow

Just so I understand, is it your belief that the US department of Justice "manufactured statistics to further a cause"?

https://www.nsopw.gov/en-CA/Education/FactsStatistics

If so, what "cause" do you think they are promoting, and to what end?

What ever are you talking about? You did not post any facts ...as I stated. All are made up. While there are indeed some actual statistics in some of the document posted, the things you posted are not.

You tell me how you count how many rapes were not reported that actually happened...how you know they actually happened, etc.

You can't even reliably tell me how many reported rapes actually happened....much less this nonsense.

I don't know why they make up data. Probably because they had a grant to do so. Obviously they have a purpose that these statistics help them with...probably to justify funding...or why would they publish the numbers?

[notfarnow]

I'm not following your logic. You're saying that you suspect organizations are making up stats on unreported rapes? for grant money or to "promote a cause"?

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by notfarnow

I'm not following your logic. You're saying that you suspect organizations are making up stats on unreported rapes? for grant money or to "promote a cause"?

Did you read your own article? The folks doing the "reporting" are not necessarily the same folks coming up with the numbers. Yes. Most folks who do this type of work (coming up with data where none exists) do so on government grants or as a college thesis. Most organizations interested in this type work...or a particular question like this also usually have a particular position they are trying to support. Why else would anyone set out to create data instead of relying on actual reported data?

Why do you think they create this data? Do you not believed that they are paid to do so? There is a huge industry around this. I personally get trained on this several times a year...as do millions of others in the military or Federal government. It is a huge industry.

Back to the silly, made up statistics you are so adamant are accurate. I'm not following you logic. If we could count everyone who is raped and does not report it, why would anyone need to report it...as we would already know? Why have we not arrested all these rapists?

...and if we already knew how many rape cases were not false accusations...why would we ever have to have a trial? We could just sentence the guilty and free the innocent.

[notfarnow]

Originally Posted by fintstone

Did you read your own article? The folks doing the "reporting" are not necessarily the same folks coming up with the numbers. Yes. Most folks who do this type of work (coming up with data where none exists) do so on government grants or as a college thesis. Most organizations interested in this type work...or a particular question like this also usually have a particular position they are trying to support. Why else would anyone set out to create data instead of relying on actual reported data?.

Well the FBI's stat of 8% is based on crimes reported to police.
On the DOJ site, they cite several 3rd party studies. Are you asking me if it bothers me that DOJ uses and quotes 3rd party studies? Not really. I'm willing to assume that the DOJ vetted their information carefully and can be trusted to have used statistics that they found to be from reputable sources. That seems like a reasonable assumption on my part, unless I'm missing something.

Originally Posted by fintstone

Why do you think they create this data? Do you not believed that they are paid to do so? There is a huge industry around this. I personally get trained on this several times a year...as do millions of others in the military or Federal government. It is a huge industry.

NHTSA compiles and creates data and are part of huge industries as well. Do you think it's reasonable to suspect that they fudge numbers to make highway safety seem like it's a big issue? They employ A LOT of people... car/road safety is a HUGE INDUSTRY, you know.

I'm pretty comfortable accepting that the NHTSA was created and funded to address an issue that was deemed serious by experts that studied the information. I am naive though, so feel free to set me straight.

Originally Posted by fintstone

Back to the silly, made up statistics you are so adamant are accurate.

I'm not adamant the statistics are accurate, but as I stated, it strikes me as reasonable to accept information from people who have studied the issue. Obviously, you are not comfortable with them being experts or providing reasonably accurate information. Feel free to post the information that you think is more valid than that of the FBI or DOJ.

Originally Posted by fintstone

I'm not following you logic. If we could count everyone who is raped and does not report it, why would anyone need to report it...as we would already know? Why have we not arrested all these rapists?
...and if we already knew how many rape cases were not false accusations...why would we ever have to have a trial? We could just sentence the guilty and free the innocent.

It seems pretty reasobale to me to accept the information that law enforcement, universities, student organizations etc have compiled by surveying women and students. You know, they ask a bunch of women "have you ever been assaulted", and "did yiu report it", "were charges laid" etc etc. If there were dozens of these surveys done, and they all tended to show similar results pointing to a really serious problem... my inclination is to think, "wow... that seems like a serious problem."

In contrast, your inclination is to see it as "manufactured statistics to advance a cause"

I dunno, maybe you're onto something, and I should think about my bias, because I see the info and think that the information seems reasonable and concerning, and the "cause" seems pretty damn worthy.

[fintstone]

Sounds to me like you really agree that they made up the numbers...and are fine with that.

The way they do these studies is to get a bunch of women together and talk to them about rape. Define it very loosely...and give examples like...your husband demands sex all the time. Sometimes you really don't feel like it...but you give in. Rape. Then ask the women...how many of them know someone who was raped and did not report it. 90% raise their hands...as they think they might. Since they are from the same group and know the same people...many may be talking about the very same person. There is no way to tell because no names are asked. Some may have heard a woman claim rape who really was not (he said, she said). Suddenly, the math shows that almost ever man has raped someone. Oh my!

When you make up "statistics" in this manner, they say whatever you design the study to show. Been there, done that, collected the paycheck.

Go out and stand by the highway and tell me how many of the cars are speeding. Should I accept your statistics and arrest them? Better yet...ask any group how many people driving faster than them are maniacs and how many slower are idiots.

There is absolutely no way to tell how many actual rapes are unreported or how many reported ones were false accusations. The only real facts are how many are reported and how many reported cases are overturned. The rest is little better than sheer conjecture. I can very easily manufacture a "study" to provide exactly the opposite indications.

Get some real data. Obviously if that many women are raped each year and do not report it...a high percentage of men have raped a women. Do a poll here and ask how many of themen have raped a woman. See if those "statistics" match up with the ones you have reported.

[notfarnow]

Originally Posted by fintstone

The way they do these studies is to get a bunch of women together and talk to them about rape. Define it very loosely...and give examples like...your husband demands sex all the time. Sometimes you really don't feel like it...but you give in. Rape. Then ask the women...how many of them know someone who was raped and did not report it. 90% raise their hands...as they think they might. Since they are from the same group and know the same people...many may be talking about the very same person. There is no way to tell because no names are asked. Some may have heard a woman claim rape who really was not (he said, she said). Suddenly, the math shows that almost ever man has raped someone. Oh my!

Wow, really, that's how it's done eh? Right up until this moment, I was pretty confident that there would be some scrutiny as to how this stuff is studied. Shows how naïve I was. Who do we call to tell them they're doing it wrong??

[fintstone]

You can do a "study" and get any conclusion you like once you decide it is ok to stray from actual data and start extrapolating based on some other factor. The reader of the study has to examine how the folks doing the "study" arrived at their numbers and if the reader finds it acceptable. As someone who used to do these studies for a living, I can tell you that there is no real way to determine with any confidence how many women in the U.S. were raped and did not report it (although if you want to hire me to do so, I can think of plenty of strategies where we can come up with a number that you can use...and justify by citing my study).