Can we talk Brexit without getting PARFy?
 

So, the Brexit happened, or at least, was voted as a go by the people.

What sort of impacts (not PARFy) do you all think this will have on the UK, US and the world?

What about Scotland? Do you think Scotland will try to leave the UK again so they can rejoin the EU?

Certainly, lots of folks are making lots of money today. The markets are volatile, and that means that someone somewhere is probably making a killing (just probably not the average Joe).

Let's try to keep this civil and reasonable.

The Brits move democratically to eject EU by virtue of their perception of a threatened loss of their sovereignty due to invading barbarians. Markets, regimes, and the world order is shaking.

And you ask not to PARF it up?

Calm down. On all fronts. The UK was never all in. They picked and chose which elements of unification they wanted, but ignored the big one - currency. London is one of the biggest banking centers in the world - as for Scotland leaving - I wouldn't count on it. Like the saying goes - follow th money...

The best thing they ever did was keep their own currency but you're right they were always half hearted about being in the Union.

Good one! http://www.r3vlimited.com/board/imag...lies/rofl1.gif

Norway and Switzerland have never been in the EU, are they're doing just fine. I suspect after the dust settles the UK will "carry on" as normal.

Bingo! I think the political aspect of this is as huge as the financial aspect.

I believe it is good to put this in geopolitical historical context. This can been seen as yet another change in the European economic alliance system that has been seen many changes in the last 1000 years. Certainly nothing new.

The exit allows the Brits to negotiate their own trade deals more independent independent of the EU, for better or worse. The discussions on tariffs for goods manufactured in the UK will be interesting since there are European companies with large manufacturing plants for components and sub-systems as well as for complete products in the UK.

What will be very interesting is whether the UK turns more to the US for economic alliances, and whether Scotland now votes for independence so they can stay in the EU.

There are also early indications that the Netherlands ("Nexit") and perhaps Denmark may be voting on it in the not-too-distant future.

Btw, a good book on English history that might help put this is context is a relatively new one (2015) by Cambridge professor Robert Tombs "The English and Their History".

The instability we now see as a result of the referendum is due to the "unknown," not to any specific action taken by the UK or the EU. No nation has left the EU so nobody knows the consequence. Anytime the status quo receives a sudden shock, there will be instability and speculation.

Now, just what will happen next? It's all up for grabs, and speculation ranges from worst-case--complete break-up of the entire EU and UK--to reformation of the EU to accommodate concerns raised by the UK and other member nations as well. There are no rules now, so everybody's guess is valid. The situation is fluid, and will remain so for some time.

As for Scotland, there is a definite possibility of a split away from the UK. A referendum in Scotland to break from Britain was narrowly defeated a few years ago, in large part because those who opposed the break emphasized the benefits of Scotland's membership in the EU which would be guaranteed by staying part of the UK. Now, that guarantee is gone. Scotland voted solidly to remain in the EU, yet will now be forced to leave due to the referendum which was carried by the vote of non-urban England. You can bet a new independence for Scotland referendum will be on the horizon.

Interestingly, the "Leave" vote appears to have narrowly succeeded due to the better turn-out of its supporters. The "Remain" forces did not sell their position very well and their supporters were not as enthusiastic as the opposition's. It was a referendum for "status quo" (Remain) or "start again" (Leave)--establishment vs the people. Those who tended to support Brexit were the ones who felt left behind in the new global economy, who saw their way of life threatened, who felt they were losing control of their country, who had a deep distrust and anger at the established political and economic leadership, and who bought into the undefined and unknown future of the Brexit position. Listen to Nigel Farage, the leader of the Independence Party who championed the exit and is now the undisputed leader of the victory movement, and you will hear words very similar to what's happening in our own presidential election. No judgements here, this is not a PARF statement and I don't want to divert the thread to a political discussion. This is just an objective statement about the makeup of the British referendum and the emotions/politics behind it. Farage really didn't expect the referendum to succeed, and was as shocked as anyone when it did. Now, the ball is in his (and others who supported Brexit) court and they will have to create the policies and actions to deal with a political and economic future that has world-wide impact but no rules to follow. They made promises to the disenfranchised people that they will have to fulfill.

Frankly, I expected all of the following posts to just say "no", and then it eventually descend into name calling and poo slinging before moving to PARF.

I'd actually visit PARF to read some intelligent conversation, but I'm afraid that I'd have to wade through a lake of guano to get to the intelligent conversation, so I stay away.

If this thread lightly touches politics (which seems to be inevitable, without turning into the poo flinging free for all that most PARFy stuff ends up being, I'd be ok with that, and I suspect it would stay here.

As mentioned follow the money. I read as a "Have" country it was costing the UK $168 million a day to help support the "Have Not" countries of the EU. Most which won't change their spending habits to help change their own problems.

To pay the money to support the "Have Not's" Britain raised taxes and cut back on social programs. Most notably health care and pensions.

I won't even touch on the camps of invaders poised on the borders who want nothing to do with UK society except to collect welfare and complain their rights are not being looked after.

Seriously considering buying some British Sterling today, it's in the toilet.

Regarding the underlined, the exit path seems destined to be long with many unknowns relative to tariffs and other elements yet to be negotiated. What are your thoughts on what seems like a years-long process of unwinding this? Will that uncertainty lead to turmoil, or will that turmoil be the new status quo resulting in some settling of the pound and of the markets?

Immigration was and is the main the issue.

They were expecting 35,000 Polish immigrants. They got 600,000 (or thereabouts). Entire cities have changed radically, the 'old England' is gone.

Who can blame them? Have not immigrants flooding your country....not too palatable to most people. But they are closing the door after the horse left the barn....

But, at least they are closing the door. They can now control their own immigration policy and cut off the cash flow to the EU. Kudos.

The top-Googled phrase in Britain today is "what is the E.U."

Lots of people publishing regrets about their 'leave' votes. Seems for many it was more emotional than rational.

Brexit lost among those under 35, but very popular with 65+

Me too! I'm actively buying the markets at the lows as well.

As others have said, the UK was never all-in anyway. The "uncertainty" is what is shaking the markets, not any specific threat. There are some significant US investment into UK companies as a free regulatory pass into E.U. opportunities, but I think time will prove it's not domesday.

CNBC and the big brokerage houses are sensationalizing this like CNN did the H1N1 and ebola. The news networks preach economic domesday so you'll watch their shows and they can sell ads based on panic viewer increases. The brokerage houses do it so you'll make lots of panic trades (per trade $$$s) and so they can buy up stocks cheap on the lows.

This will blow over quickly.

Can we talk Brexit without getting PARFy?

Because there is nothing political about defining a country's global policies?

c'mon.

btw, there is a very useful discussion about this in the politics forum.

the teenagers are coming out on Twitter - cringe


http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1466795036.png

https://www.gov.uk/voting-in-the-uk/overview

Am I missing something, or is that just an ignorant girl?

The leading voters in favor of Brexit: the old and uneducated.

EU referendum: How the results compare to the UK's educated, old and immigrant populations

I bet when her parents see her twitter they think #whathavewedone

Tried calling my family in Yorkshire, and Bournemouth but I just got a fast busy. I guess the phones are just tied up.

Look at these ancient knuckle-dragging pensioners celebrating Brexit.
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1466811869.jpg

One aspect that is very important to note lies within the automobile manufacturing industry in the UK.

The UE had mandated to manufacturers that they switch to a less harmful refrigerant by MY 2017. Dupont manufactures it, R-1234yf. You can imagine what the YF stands for. Just retooling for the change costs a ton of money, but so does the refrigerant, to the tune of about $2000 per 30 lbs.

Now they don't have to switch, can continue to make automobiles as is, and may still manufacture replacement wiring harness smoke.

Because they don't plan to sell them to customers in the EU?

Miracles still happen in the 21st century but I doubt God will intervene on this one.

Frankly, I'm surprised it didn't happen a lot sooner. Among other things, why any of the EU countries would want to pay for Greece's blatant financial irresponsibility is beyond me. As has been said a million times, the problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money.

Some postulate that the reason for the exit is immigration. Wakey wakey. That is a monetary issue as well. Why would they want to import more people to drain their financial situation? THe U.K. isn't California.

i have an english cousin who works in scotland and a few other countries in the u.k. who doesn't know whether or not he'll need to get visas to work at those countries now. his company, who does i.t. security, may face unknown regulatory hurdles in the next two years.

as someone who makes a living on dividend income, i don't welcome the brexit as it introduces a fair amount of risk and uncertainty in the coming years. more than 20 years of free trade and predictable fiscal and monetary policy are now in risk. is a long overdue recession in the cards? the market sold off at high volumes at the lows. i predict more selling in the days ahead. brace yourselves for a rocky ride, gents.

Those twenty years you enjoyed are akin to living it up big while on vacation but oh shoot, now the credit card bills are coming in and someone has to pay for that excess.

The market ALWAYS over-reacts. Give it a week or two and everything will be business as usual. In the meantime, Henny Penny and the news media will be working overtime.

UK exit will happen in a slow dignified way.

BUT the Leave example set to other countries who will now radically break out will be ugly.

I imagine border fences will soon go up in most northern EU countries. Young men pretending to be refugees will be rushing to get into those countries before the fences go up.

Lots of EU people will rush into UK to get established before new Brexit rules can be drawn up.

Things will settle down in about 10 years.

Regulations, things will change down the road. Daimler shredded Honeywell DuPont.

Cameron promised that if elected he would negotiate more favorable terms for Britain as a condition for staying within the EU and then hold a referendum for staying or leaving. He failed to do the former and was bitten badly when he did the latter. Obama's statements ("back of the queue"), which Cameron invited, hurt him too. And the refugee crisis, created wholly by Obama and Europe's non actions in the ME, combined with the European response of largely embracing those refugees, greatly increased the chances for Brexit as well.

In sum I think there were equally good arguments for staying and leaving but in the end Cameron got the referendum, if not the results, he wanted.

Besides, in a month something else will dominate airwaves and all this will be moot...

It is just phase one of the reunification of the USA and the UK


God save the Queen!

My guess has been that the impact of this on our stocks will decrease in the next few weeks--especially on those who were really independent of all this, anyway. I hoped that the major impact, especially on stocks that really have no relationship to all this, happened on Friday. Bought about $12k of stocks that I've been watching for a while and were unfairly depressed along with the general surge.

It will be interesting to see the net effect on England. They will pay less to support other countries in the EU. Some in the EU will try to make them suffer for this decision. There will probably lose some contracts and some financial/travel issues will be more difficult. My guess is that a number of people who voted for the change inappropriately blamed membership in the EU for issues in their lives....which won't be any better by leaving. Will probably be such an odd mix of effects, may have a modest net change if at all.

This comment from an FT article was pretty succinct:

Wow a whole page before somebody blamed Obama. Must be a record.