Can we talk Brexit without getting PARFy?

[masraum]

So, the Brexit happened, or at least, was voted as a go by the people.

What sort of impacts (not PARFy) do you all think this will have on the UK, US and the world?

What about Scotland? Do you think Scotland will try to leave the UK again so they can rejoin the EU?

Certainly, lots of folks are making lots of money today. The markets are volatile, and that means that someone somewhere is probably making a killing (just probably not the average Joe).

Let's try to keep this civil and reasonable.

[Crowbob]

The Brits move democratically to eject EU by virtue of their perception of a threatened loss of their sovereignty due to invading barbarians. Markets, regimes, and the world order is shaking.

And you ask not to PARF it up?

[Charles Freeborn]

Calm down. On all fronts. The UK was never all in. They picked and chose which elements of unification they wanted, but ignored the big one - currency. London is one of the biggest banking centers in the world - as for Scotland leaving - I wouldn't count on it. Like the saying goes - follow th money...

[sc_rufctr]

Originally Posted by Charles Freeborn

Calm down. On all fronts. The UK was never all in. They picked and chose which elements of unification they wanted, but ignored the big one - currency. London is one of the biggest banking centers in the world - as for Scotland leaving - I wouldn't count on it. Like the saying goes - follow th money...

The best thing they ever did was keep their own currency but you're right they were always half hearted about being in the Union.

[SoCal911T]

Originally Posted by masraum

Can we talk Brexit without getting PARFy?

Good one!

[ckissick]

Norway and Switzerland have never been in the EU, are they're doing just fine. I suspect after the dust settles the UK will "carry on" as normal.

[pwd72s]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

The Brits move democratically to eject EU by virtue of their perception of a threatened loss of their sovereignty due to invading barbarians. Markets, regimes, and the world order is shaking.

And you ask not to PARF it up?

Bingo! I think the political aspect of this is as huge as the financial aspect.

[dw1]

I believe it is good to put this in geopolitical historical context. This can been seen as yet another change in the European economic alliance system that has been seen many changes in the last 1000 years. Certainly nothing new.

The exit allows the Brits to negotiate their own trade deals more independent independent of the EU, for better or worse. The discussions on tariffs for goods manufactured in the UK will be interesting since there are European companies with large manufacturing plants for components and sub-systems as well as for complete products in the UK.

What will be very interesting is whether the UK turns more to the US for economic alliances, and whether Scotland now votes for independence so they can stay in the EU.

There are also early indications that the Netherlands ("Nexit") and perhaps Denmark may be voting on it in the not-too-distant future.

Btw, a good book on English history that might help put this is context is a relatively new one (2015) by Cambridge professor Robert Tombs "The English and Their History".

[ossiblue]

The instability we now see as a result of the referendum is due to the "unknown," not to any specific action taken by the UK or the EU. No nation has left the EU so nobody knows the consequence. Anytime the status quo receives a sudden shock, there will be instability and speculation.

Now, just what will happen next? It's all up for grabs, and speculation ranges from worst-case--complete break-up of the entire EU and UK--to reformation of the EU to accommodate concerns raised by the UK and other member nations as well. There are no rules now, so everybody's guess is valid. The situation is fluid, and will remain so for some time.

As for Scotland, there is a definite possibility of a split away from the UK. A referendum in Scotland to break from Britain was narrowly defeated a few years ago, in large part because those who opposed the break emphasized the benefits of Scotland's membership in the EU which would be guaranteed by staying part of the UK. Now, that guarantee is gone. Scotland voted solidly to remain in the EU, yet will now be forced to leave due to the referendum which was carried by the vote of non-urban England. You can bet a new independence for Scotland referendum will be on the horizon.

Interestingly, the "Leave" vote appears to have narrowly succeeded due to the better turn-out of its supporters. The "Remain" forces did not sell their position very well and their supporters were not as enthusiastic as the opposition's. It was a referendum for "status quo" (Remain) or "start again" (Leave)--establishment vs the people. Those who tended to support Brexit were the ones who felt left behind in the new global economy, who saw their way of life threatened, who felt they were losing control of their country, who had a deep distrust and anger at the established political and economic leadership, and who bought into the undefined and unknown future of the Brexit position. Listen to Nigel Farage, the leader of the Independence Party who championed the exit and is now the undisputed leader of the victory movement, and you will hear words very similar to what's happening in our own presidential election. No judgements here, this is not a PARF statement and I don't want to divert the thread to a political discussion. This is just an objective statement about the makeup of the British referendum and the emotions/politics behind it. Farage really didn't expect the referendum to succeed, and was as shocked as anyone when it did. Now, the ball is in his (and others who supported Brexit) court and they will have to create the policies and actions to deal with a political and economic future that has world-wide impact but no rules to follow. They made promises to the disenfranchised people that they will have to fulfill.

[masraum]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

you ask not to PARF it up?

Originally Posted by SoCal911T

Good one!

Frankly, I expected all of the following posts to just say "no", and then it eventually descend into name calling and poo slinging before moving to PARF.

I'd actually visit PARF to read some intelligent conversation, but I'm afraid that I'd have to wade through a lake of guano to get to the intelligent conversation, so I stay away.

If this thread lightly touches politics (which seems to be inevitable, without turning into the poo flinging free for all that most PARFy stuff ends up being, I'd be ok with that, and I suspect it would stay here.

[GWN7]

As mentioned follow the money. I read as a "Have" country it was costing the UK $168 million a day to help support the "Have Not" countries of the EU. Most which won't change their spending habits to help change their own problems.

To pay the money to support the "Have Not's" Britain raised taxes and cut back on social programs. Most notably health care and pensions.

I won't even touch on the camps of invaders poised on the borders who want nothing to do with UK society except to collect welfare and complain their rights are not being looked after.

[speeder]

Seriously considering buying some British Sterling today, it's in the toilet.

[Reddy Kilowatt]

Originally Posted by ossiblue

The instability we now see as a result of the referendum is due to the "unknown," not to any specific action taken by the UK or the EU. No nation has left the EU so nobody knows the consequence. Anytime the status quo receives a sudden shock, there will be instability and speculation.

Now, just what will happen next? It's all up for grabs, and speculation ranges from worst-case--complete break-up of the entire EU and UK--to reformation of the EU to accommodate concerns raised by the UK and other member nations as well. There are no rules now, so everybody's guess is valid. The situation is fluid, and will remain so for some time.

As for Scotland, there is a definite possibility of a split away from the UK. A referendum in Scotland to break from Britain was narrowly defeated a few years ago, in large part because those who opposed the break emphasized the benefits of Scotland's membership in the EU which would be guaranteed by staying part of the UK. Now, that guarantee is gone. Scotland voted solidly to remain in the EU, yet will now be forced to leave due to the referendum which was carried by the vote of non-urban England. You can bet a new independence for Scotland referendum will be on the horizon.

Interestingly, the "Leave" vote appears to have narrowly succeeded due to the better turn-out of its supporters. The "Remain" forces did not sell their position very well and their supporters were not as enthusiastic as the opposition's. It was a referendum for "status quo" (Remain) or "start again" (Leave)--establishment vs the people. Those who tended to support Brexit were the ones who felt left behind in the new global economy, who saw their way of life threatened, who felt they were losing control of their country, who had a deep distrust and anger at the established political and economic leadership, and who bought into the undefined and unknown future of the Brexit position. Listen to Nigel Farage, the leader of the Independence Party who championed the exit and is now the undisputed leader of the victory movement, and you will hear words very similar to what's happening in our own presidential election. No judgements here, this is not a PARF statement and I don't want to divert the thread to a political discussion. This is just an objective statement about the makeup of the British referendum and the emotions/politics behind it. Farage really didn't expect the referendum to succeed, and was as shocked as anyone when it did. Now, the ball is in his (and others who supported Brexit) court and they will have to create the policies and actions to deal with a political and economic future that has world-wide impact but no rules to follow. They made promises to the disenfranchised people that they will have to fulfill.

Regarding the underlined, the exit path seems destined to be long with many unknowns relative to tariffs and other elements yet to be negotiated. What are your thoughts on what seems like a years-long process of unwinding this? Will that uncertainty lead to turmoil, or will that turmoil be the new status quo resulting in some settling of the pound and of the markets?

[1990C4S]

Immigration was and is the main the issue.

They were expecting 35,000 Polish immigrants. They got 600,000 (or thereabouts). Entire cities have changed radically, the 'old England' is gone.

Who can blame them? Have not immigrants flooding your country....not too palatable to most people. But they are closing the door after the horse left the barn....

[Chocaholic]

But, at least they are closing the door. They can now control their own immigration policy and cut off the cash flow to the EU. Kudos.

[techweenie]

The top-Googled phrase in Britain today is "what is the E.U."

Lots of people publishing regrets about their 'leave' votes. Seems for many it was more emotional than rational.

Brexit lost among those under 35, but very popular with 65+

[Craig T]

Originally Posted by speeder

Seriously considering buying some British Sterling today, it's in the toilet.

Me too! I'm actively buying the markets at the lows as well.

As others have said, the UK was never all-in anyway. The "uncertainty" is what is shaking the markets, not any specific threat. There are some significant US investment into UK companies as a free regulatory pass into E.U. opportunities, but I think time will prove it's not domesday.

CNBC and the big brokerage houses are sensationalizing this like CNN did the H1N1 and ebola. The news networks preach economic domesday so you'll watch their shows and they can sell ads based on panic viewer increases. The brokerage houses do it so you'll make lots of panic trades (per trade $$$s) and so they can buy up stocks cheap on the lows.

This will blow over quickly.

[island911]

Can we talk Brexit without getting PARFy?

Because there is nothing political about defining a country's global policies?

c'mon.

btw, there is a very useful discussion about this in the politics forum.

[black_falcon]

Originally Posted by techweenie

The top-Googled phrase in Britain today is "what is the E.U."

Lots of people publishing regrets about their 'leave' votes. Seems for many it was more emotional than rational.

Brexit lost among those under 35, but very popular with 65+

the teenagers are coming out on Twitter - cringe

[Arizona_928]

https://www.gov.uk/voting-in-the-uk/overview

Am I missing something, or is that just an ignorant girl?