Haqve we reached "peak engine"?
 

Interesting read...any thoughts?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/reached-peak-engine-183500889.html

Yeah, maybe we're there.

Frankly, I'm surprised that a hybrid powertrain based on micro-turbines (with all kinds of heat-scavenging gadgets to harvest every last bit of electricity) hasn't made the news yet. I think this may be the next evolution of internal-combustion engines for vehicles (and maybe the last) before batteries take over completely.

Could be we are there. It wouldn't bother me as long as interesting legacy vehicles like the ones I've owned for decades aren't regulated off the road. I have no desire to buy a brand new 50 year old car. For the most part cars sucked 50 years ago.

Not even as long ago as 50 years.Galvanized bodyshells didn't conme in almost universally until at least the late 80's around about the same time that electronic engine management provided real reliability (but Lord help you if it failed)

I think we're a long way from internal combustion engines going away at least not until battery technology takes a huge leap forward.

I do expect nearly all vehicles to be some form of hybrid relatively soon. There's just too much energy wasted in braking not recover as much as possible.

Here's some new technology that may better integrate ICE's with electric motors:

Is this grad student's transmission the future of hypercars? | Autoweek

Interesting article.

In my industry (unmanned air systems) advances in propulsion technologies (battery improvements, thin film cells, fuel cells, other gases, etc.) have increased endurance remarkably.

We call it SWaP: Space, weight and power, the three pillars of flight that drive limitless sub tasks. We have been able to take advantage not only of improvements in propulsion but also in the supporting technologies like avionics, GPS receiver weights, conformal antennas, auto pilots and materials...all leading to significant SWaP improvements with lower costs and improved mean time between failures.

I expect the same advancements in the auto industry.

They key, as always, is cost, maintenance, infrastructure and supportability. I can get in my stupidly inefficient Toyota truck and go anywhere at any time with no worries about any of the above with minimal attention on my part. I do not, selfishly, want to give that up.

I think the future is probably electric vehicles for short trip urban areas and some suburban mixed with hybrid IC for those who live further out as well as busses and tractor/trailers. Personally I hope to see hydrogen fuel cells replace the hybrid ICs. I doubt we'll see battery technology that will replace hybrid IC in our lifetimes unless we have a major breakthrough.

I see the next things in current IC engines being electronic valvetrains, variable compression, and also the electric driven turbo/superchargers we are currently seeing from various carmakers.

I agree. A friend of mine lives in Arlington, Va and works at the Pentagon. The Metro stop is a block away.

He has an EV that, in the DC metro area works perfectly well.

We met for a meeting north of Baltimore last week and he showed up in a Zipcar. The Zipcar place is a five miles away. He Ubered there then drove to the meeting. He can also park his EV at their lot for free. He uses them or Enterprise when he need long range driving.

He went from three cars (suburban home) to one car without a hitch.

Sounds great. Your example proves that EV is a specialty car like a tool you only use to time your cams. Works great but don't need it 99% of the time.
What about the other 70% if us that don't live in urban areas? Oh, never mind. We've already been down that road in other threads.

If you look at NASCAR history, in the 60's the automakers knew there was a limit to how much horsepower you could create to go fast. They turned their attention to aerodynamics - which is why Chrysler came up with the Superbird. Windtunnel testing is commonplace today.

Necessity is the mother of invention and as we drive to reduce gas consumption, emissions and make cars safer, you can only get so much from weight reduction and engine performance. Admittedly, there have been great strides in engine design and fuel economy but there are limits. We are at the beginning of that.

The other thing that is happening - there are fewer 18 yr olds driving today than at any time. Car loan terms are longer. The desire to own a car, especially in urban areas is almost a liability. That $30K cars sits more than it is used. Its no wonder why ride share is popular.

As long as gas prices remain low, it may slow the proliferation of alternative powered vehicles but it won't slow down ride share.

Well, the gasoline engine is certainly obsolete for short hop driving. Even the 2-300 mile range electrics are overkill. All one really needs for the majority of urban / suburban commuting is a glorified golf cart with a 50 mile range. However, in order for that to work the road system would need some updating too. There would be roads or lanes for the small vehicles and ones for larger ones, bicycles too. Man would I love to see bicycles off the streets that cars use...
If my wife's Acura RSX wasn't paid for and got well over 30 mi./ gal. we'd swap it out for a small electric like a Leaf and keep the Outback for road trips and my work activities, which frequently involves pulling a trailer.
The 911, well that's in a different category...

Wrightspeed Debuts New Turbine For Commercial Vehicles

You mean like this?

I see no causal connection between the development of the ICE to it's obsolescence.

In order to support the theory of EVs being just around the corner, batteries would have to become as efficient as fossil fuel in order to store the amount of energy contained in a tank of gas in a battery of the same size. And then there is the problem of generating that much electricity, not just storing it.

Aerkuld - Yes - Like that. I would think this would scale down to passenger cars at some point.

Micro-Turbines have issues. They are not more efficient than a car engine. They are longer lasting in continuous operation. They do not do well in start/stop cycles, which is what you do with a Hybrid.

I'll agree with most, except for the hydrogen part. Methane fuel cells, but not hydrogen.

Yep. Look at my Tesla Power-Wall thread. Either you have reasonably priced batteries, low weight or long life. The fall off in battery capability in the power-wall shows the problem. 3000 cycles may mean it will last 10 years, but after 3-4 years, it is down to 60% of its original capacity.

6 kWh of usable capacity Advanced Lead Acid batteries with 3000 cycles costs about $2000. A Power-wall with similar usable capacity costs around $3500. Don't get me started on the equipment to make use of lithium batteries.

Hey, red-beard, can I write your name in on the ballot this year?

Better than any of the other choices

Well, it's either you or Dan Gurney as far as I'm concerned.

Nice!

Nope.
Nowhere close.

Where do we get all those precious metals for the fuel cells to replace the millions of engines produced every year?

Exactly. Huge leaps in logic. It's like a reality distortion field surrounds the whole EV myth.

^^^
"Dreams do come true, if only we wish hard enough." - Peter Pan

Oh - on land based battery systems, one point I like to make to people is that lead is the most recycled substance, more percentage than aluminum. Lithium is not recycled. It is five times more costly to recycle lithium than to buy "virgin".

Advanced Lead-Acid may not be the right battery for mobile applications, but stationary it is.

Smoky Yunick took one to the grave
What Ever Happened To Smokey's Hot-Vapor Engine? - Hot Rod Magazine
Besides his, there are at least a 100 more designs floating around.

80% of the US popultion is urban

https://ask.census.gov/faq.php?id=5000&faqId=5971

The thermodynamics don't sound very good. On a Gas Turbine, you compress the air, add fuel to heat it, then expand it over the turbine. One way to reduce fuel consumption is to preheat the compressed air with exhaust heat exchangers before adding fuel. This is called "regeneration".

The problem with the above article is the heating is taking place BEFORE compression. This will further increase the temp and the compression energy in the cylinder. Most times to increase power, you want to cool the air before it enters the engine. Intercoolers are used on multistage compressors to reduce temperature and compression energy in downstream stages. It is a loser for fuel efficiency, but a winner for power.

The wife has an EV that has enough range to get her to school and back (barely), her studio and other errands being closer and easy. These days I mostly ride the moto to the office but now can take the metro train to main campus. I walk from the station to campus, Lyft from the station home (or walk - could do a folding bike).

We could drop down to one car (and even have it be EV) with the other options now available (rentals, zip, lyft). Only complication is gigging when I need to haul gear and if on the same night the wife needs the car. But probably a work around there as well.

Gas is overkill for most trips I see people taking - except for those that live in the outskirts and commute 2 hours into town. I don't see how that is a thing, but the "American dream" of home (and car) ownership drives some people to extreme solutions.

Ok, now the EV thing is making sense. It's not for me. I am not a hamster living in Zootopia. But if you are, then for you it's fabulous because you can recycle everything from the battery to your farts, which are fuel.

I just love the gas is overkill comment. W-O-W.

If (& that's a big IF) we could mine asteroids we'd have all the precious metals we'd ever need.

A futurist recently predicted that the person who worked out how to do this would be the worlds first Trillionaire.

a) People on Long Island NY live in an urban area but would never be able to get anywhere with EVs: in traffic they still need heat and AC
b) People in urban areas are less likely to own a vehicle due to mass transit.
c) Should we just say to heck with the other 20% (more like 50%) let them walk?

I have some of each. They all have their place. I admit my situation isn't typical, but the ICE has peaked as the primary power plant for me. It went from the only "choice" to a real choice of which vehicle/fuel system to use. Choice is good.

Actually, most asteroids are rock.

The largest M type asteroid is Psyche, it is 16th in size order and it makes up 1% of the mass of the Asteroid belt.

It is about 90% metallic and weighs 22,700,000,000,000,000 Metric Tons. The metal should be about 90% iron with the rest mostly nickle. Psyche should contain 18,387,000,000,000,000 Metric Tons.

2014 world production of Iron: 3,200,000,000

At this rate, it would be 5.7 million years of world production. It is a BIT far away. At closest approach, it is about 180 Million miles away (300 Million Kilometers)

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...Of16Psyche.gif

From all the catalytic converters that will be obsolete...

Fuel cell futures no longer a dream - SAE International

"Similarly, the amount of platinum used has already been successfully reduced to nearly the benchmark level of that used in the catalytic converters for internal combustion engines. GM’s Equinox fuel cells used 80 gm (2.8 oz) of platinum and the 2011 Clarity FCV used 30 gm (1.05 oz). Catalytic converters typically use 10 gm (.35 oz), according to Pivovar."

Which should go even farther with the right lattice structure:

Novel nanocatalysts for fuel cells - SAE International

Or you can skip the Platinum all together...

Rethinking the route to lower-cost fuel cells - SAE International

"Opting for the high end of the pH range has an advantage: it enables replacement of platinum catalysts with cheaper metals like nickel or silver, Yan explained. “A basic operating environment is better," he said, "because many catalytic metals are much more stable, while everything dissolves in acid, including platinum.”"

a) EVs have heat and AC
b) maybe (though not sure on those numbers) but that's even better for traffic
c) no one is trying to pry your car out of your cold dead hands :D

Most vehicles are complete overkill for the tasks they are fulfilling. Of course in 'Merica we need 500hp to run to the Starbucks because...'Merica.

Buy and drive what you want.

EV's using heat or AC in stop and go traffic will be out of juice long before arrival.
Look. You want an EV? Got get yourself one. Just don't ask me to fund poor technology with my taxes.