How Do You Make Decisions In An Uncertain Environment?

[creaturecat]

factorial analysis is the discipline that applies re: a set of variables and potential outcomes, no?

[tabs]

Originally Posted by cashflyer

I just shoot randomly into the crowd.
Fate makes the decision for me.

Kill em all and let God sort em out?

[tabs]

All I do is go to the buffet, casino, and shopping...I let Mother make all my decisions, it is just easier that way.

[Esel Mann]

Remember: it usually takes three weeks or so AFTER you have left to find the problems, but only takes two weeks to give your notice.....

[Crowbob]

I curl up into a little ball behind the couch and wait for it all to go away.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

I curl up into a little ball behind the couch and wait for it all to go away.

Are u sure u are not a politician?

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Make

Achieve
Preserve
Avoid

Lists

Prioritize

Analyze

Conclude

Always write things down to get them out of your head. Takes perceptions and makes them real allowing for more room in your head to analyze hard info in front of you, now dreams inside you.

[Touque]

I'm surprised no one has said to use the Magic 8 Ball...

[pwd72s]

Originally Posted by 1990C4S

http://magic8ball.com/

^ post # 18

I usually make a shot decision based on where I think I can leave the cue ball for the next shot. As in: "Hmmmm, off the rail or straight in?" How hard? Follow, stop, or draw? Speed needed?" After these calculation I usually hook myself...or miss the shot entirely.

Life is kind of like that, eh?

[Crowbob]

Originally Posted by tabs

Are u sure u are not a politician?

Actually no, O Great Merchant of All Things Good and Right,

The people are my concern. If that makes me a politician, so be it.

[Crowbob]

Back in the day, I found myself on a roll pool-wise. For weeks I couldn't miss a shot it felt like. Combination banks across the whole table. **** like that. Over and over again.

Then it was gone.

Just as suddenly, the game of pool returned to a challenge that I decided was insurmountable and thus quit.

On the spot.

[Crowbob]

With a good solid rack I could consistently draw the cue ball on the break beyond mid table and have with a greater than 70% probability that I would have sunk one, too.

I'd take extra special care when racking for my adversary. Sure enough, when he racked for me it was a solid rack.

[Crowbob]

Chicks and pool tables go together.

When I found that out, I lost all scruples I thought I once had.

[Crowbob]

Nothing beats a chick with a good solid rack.



The end.

[gsxrken]

Originally Posted by legion

A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow.

"A good plan violently executed now is better than a perfect plan executed next week." Gen. George Patton

[Seahawk]

It depends:

In my company in engineering we develop requirements, criteria then weights and measure against predicted results. I just met with a small engine company this morning that will now make the engine for my next drone. We compared criteria, experience and inked a deal in about 2 hours.

The engine was my biggest risk...not now.

Management and company stuff? My grandfather's brother, who was a senior VP for Matson Navigation Company, a very successful man who came up from the deck plates on Matson ships, had a phrase he shared with his brother: "In business you have to either Shyte, Stand or Stampede: Figuring out which one is the hard part."

Figure out what works for you. I don't gamble so I am a numbers guy. I have a set of criteria that works for me.

[Cajundaddy]

Originally Posted by stomachmonkey

Sometimes the better choice is not the one with the best upside but the one with the least downside.

Yes. If possible outcomes of your choice include going to prison or being eaten by wolves, I tend to rule out those choices rather quickly.

[pwd72s]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

With a good solid rack I could consistently draw the cue ball on the break beyond mid table and have with a greater than 70% probability that I would have sunk one, too.

I'd take extra special care when racking for my adversary. Sure enough, when he racked for me it was a solid rack.

So...you broke just like this, right? not difficult to understand...difficult to do consistently. How to break is a decision this guy makes well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAEnKCL3stU

[ckelly78z]

This sounds like my quandry of whether to roll entire 401K into something that might survive the coming chit storm from the election results, (or lack of trustworthy results) or let it ride and hope it rebounds after buying low.

[cstreit]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

That is how business decisions are made. We never have ALL the info and often times the hard data is pretty thin. If you weigh the choices and it comes out 60/40, the best answer is pretty obvious. If you weigh the choices and it looks more like a coin toss, it probably is. Both choices have pluses and minuses but the end result comes out pretty evenly if you stay the course and follow through with your plan. Pick one, commit to your decision, and carry it through to the end.

Sometimes we make our best choice and it leads us down the wrong path or a dead end. Such is life. We cannot win every time and if we only win 6/10 we look like champions. As long as we learn something from our mistakes it wasn't wasted effort, just an investment in our education and experience.


This is what an effective CEO does every day.

Exactly this. If anything this states the sum total of my wisdom gained over the years. Additionally we will accept that mistakes will happen and provided you are prepared with contingency in mind, best you can do...