How Do You Make Decisions In An Uncertain Environment?

[Crowbob]

Didn't watch the video, pwd.

Your input has more value.

Good decision-making requires confidence and challenge.

Having said that, hiding behind the couch has merit.

For that is when some think best.

[pwd72s]

Actually..I do my best thinking in the can...

Really..think you'd have enjoyed the video...it took many hours of practice and study to break like that.

[LEAKYSEALS951]

Over dinner tonight, I shared what was discussed in this thread with my wife. She stared blankly at me!
...however, I really appreciate the comments. As common sense as they seem, they are helpful reminders as to how to keep an even keel in the face of 50/50 situations.
Take that Tony Robbins!!!!
Thanks,
Ron

[Macroni]

Originally Posted by jyl

How do you make the decision?

Risk assessment is critical......is this a death star (high risk) decision or is it medium risk decision..... painful but survivable.....

Death star decisions needs patience and resources; these decisions are too important not to get the best advice, while you might not get all information you can substitute experience... great starting point is your banker. They have tremendous resources and are vested in your success. Your outside accountant is another great resource, suppliers all will be invested partners in an enterprise which has value. Truly stuck..... post in "off topic" on Pelican...... there is always at least one expert to be found to assist you......

Timelines are critical..... how much time do you have.....establish... work backwards. What info do you need, how much time do you need to get it? How much are you going to have when the decision is do........

If there is math involved in this decision and it always is.... do it..... Math proves viability.....

[jyl]

My two cents.

The time and effort to devote to a decision depends on the gravity and irreversibilty of the decision, but also on the nature of the decision. Sometimes a decision cannot be improved with more time or effort. You have to know what sort of decision you're making.

In many cases, explicit calculation and logic only gets you part of the way. The final step has to be made by your gut. Your gut is often smarter than you are: it is the collected experience of your life and career. Humans do much of their reasoning in an unconscious part of the brain. We are our own black box.

The more a decision involves the actions and reactions of other people, the more important the gut (black box) is. Maybe it takes a computer to predict how another computer will respond, but to predict how another human gut will respond, you need your own human gut.

[john70t]

"If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice"-Rush
"You've got to know when to hold 'em, Know when to fold 'em,"-Kenny Rogers

There is always opportunity in the good and the bad, and nothing is ever gained without taking a chance.
Everyone has an animal spirit: Alligators wait and snap. Birds flutter and search. Lions join and search together. etc

[sc_rufctr]

trust your gut.

[Crowbob]

Like they say up in the UP;

If you're careful enough, nothing good and nothing bad will ever happen to you.

[tabs]

There is a lot of wonderful input in this Thread from a wealth of experience. The next time the bullets are whizzing past my head I will be sure to pull up this Thread and refer to it.

[wayner]

Risk = Probability + Impact ...