What Tabby has been lecturing about.

[recycled sixtie]

The problem is that tabs has no solutions. Gold, real estate?

[Cajundaddy]

Zero hedge is a clickbait site designed to scare you. The more you click, the more $$$ they make off your fears. It's nonsense. Read some news clips from 1890, or 1950 where they were saying the same thing. The world adapted and life went on.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge

Economies rise and fall naturally as they have been doing since the founding of this country. Fortunes will be won and lost. Conservative, low risk strategies historically have the best long term results.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by aschen

Exactly

Im sure the economy is dying like the rest of us, but predicting its demise without accurately sayin when just makes you another missleading dr.

So dismiss what I say. It is a clever weasel and dodge you pull. The word for it is denial.

In fact it has already happened, in 2008. You are already dead and don't know it. You are on the life support of Sovereign debt accretion. That 100T in unfunded entitlement liabilities is NOW going to have to be funded and become interest bearing debt. At the rate of 1T a year...How many trillions can be piled up before the camels back is broken?

Look at entitlement reform. For starters there is no way it is going to happen as there is NO POLITICAL WILL to do it. So if perchance what can they do? To save the body they need to end it, and the sooner the better. If they don't do that they could say anyone under 50 is SOL and at 55 a reduced benefit. But keep on paying for sumthin you ain't gona get.

Fact is Americans have NO SAVINGS so that the burden then falls on the family. Or without the government stipend old people have no money to spend. Either way the Consumer driven economy suffers as people go into survival mode. The Chinese do not have a social safety net and as such they save rather than spend.

The CONCLUSION is that either SOLUTION you come up with has an UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE which is as bad as not doing anything. It is called CATCH 22. America has painted itself into a fking corner.

Another SOLUTION is to get some of those 23M Americans who are working for the govt in one form or another off the payroll to save money. Hmmm those people are getting paychecks which they spend, which supports a Consumer driven economy (hey somebody has got to do it). The economy then suffers as they got no mo money to spend dey is unemployed.


If the fruit of a SOLUTION was low hanging and easy to get it would have been done already. The choices are hard and no one was willing to make them, it has gone on for so long that the fix is as bad as not doing anything. Work the equation.

You cut the paychecks of the entitlements and suddenly the sheep will wake up and become restless. Hunger will do that.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by recycled sixtie

The problem is that tabs has no solutions. Gold, real estate?

Do you think that I have not worked the equation? I have said it before the best thing that you can do is be defensive.

1. you have to play the financial game like it will never end. You have to support yourself between here and there. So be prudent and save. Consider those assets as being forfeit in the extreme.

2. Put a small portion of your assets into Gold or Silver. 5000 years of human history has proven it to be a viable medium of exchange. It will help tide you over.

3. Consider that the civil authorities will not be around to protect you. Some guns/ammo and food in the cupboard is a prudent thing to have.

4. Have a plot of land where you can grow your own to feed yourselves.


Consider that an economic crisis will be global. It will be akin to having a Nuclear war without the bombs. There is no safe place in the world. WHY it is because they are fking around with the universal medium of exchange the USD. If they were not doing that the situation might be dire but not catastrophic. They are fking around with the USD because they wanted to keep the light on for another day. With the hope that with some time things would return to normal. Nothing has been fixed the whole world is on a credit binge.


Is that all clear enough, do you realize you are living on borrowed time.


What I describe is like describing the tides of the ocean..is there any solution that will change those tides? I am describing the ebb and flow or trajectory of history. .

[pwd72s]

The reasons given in the article from zero hedge seem accurate enough. Can anyone here dispute them?

That said, maybe the conclusion is in error...feel free to make your own judgements on that.

[Jims5543]

I get newsletters from this cat Charles Hayek, I tend to skim the content. This one I read through because it was coinciding with this thread. I try not to obsess over this stuff, it is really hard to ignore.

Today, America is nearly 70 trillion dollars in debt, and that debt is shooting higher at an exponential rate.

Usually most of the focus in on the national debt, which is now 21 trillion dollars and rising, but when you total all forms of debt in our society together it comes to a grand total just short of 70 trillion dollars. Many people seem to believe that the debt imbalances that existed prior to the great financial crisis of 2008 have been solved, but that is not the case at all. We are living in the terminal phase of the greatest debt bubble in history, and with each passing day that mountain of debt just keeps on getting bigger and bigger.

It simply is not mathematically possible for debt to keep on growing at a pace that is many times greater than GDP growth, and at some point this absurd bubble will come to an abrupt end. So those that are forecasting many years of prosperity to come are simply being delusional. Our current standard of living is very heavily fueled by debt, and at some point we are going to hit a wall.

Let’s talk about consumer debt first. Excluding mortgage debt, consumer debt is projected to hit the 4 trillion dollar mark by the end of the year…

Americans are in a borrowing mood, and their total tab for consumer debt could reach a record $4 trillion by the end of 2018.

That’s according to LendingTree, a loan comparison website, which analyzed data from the Federal Reserve on nonmortgage debts including credit cards, and auto, personal and student loans.

Americans owe more than 26 percent of their annual income to this debt. That’s up from 22 percent in 2010. It’s also higher than debt levels during the mid-2000s when credit availability soared.

We have never seen this level of consumer debt before in all of U.S. history. Just a few days ago I wrote about how tens of millions of Americans are living on the edge financially, and this is yet more evidence to back up that claim.

Right now, Americans owe more than a trillion dollars on auto loans, and we are clearly in the greatest auto loan debt bubble that we have ever seen.

Americans also owe more than a trillion dollars on their credit cards, and credit card delinquency rates are rising. In fact, in some ways what we witnessed during the first quarter of 2018 was quite reminiscent of the peak of the last financial crisis…

In the first quarter, the delinquency rate on credit-card loan balances at commercial banks other than the largest 100 – so at the 4,788 smaller banks in the US – spiked in to 5.9%. This exceeds the peak during the Financial Crisis. The credit-card charge-off rate at these banks spiked to 8%. This is approaching the peak during the Financial Crisis.

The student loan debt bubble has also surpassed a trillion dollars, and the average young adult with student loan debt has a negative net worth…

Despite economic and stock market gains over the past nine years, many young adults are still struggling to get ahead in their financial lives and, in some ways, things may have actually gotten worse.

Americans age 25 to 34 with college degrees and student debt have a median net wealth of negative $1,900, according to a report analyzing 2016 Federal Reserve data released Thursday by Young Invincibles, a young adult advocacy group. That’s a drop of $9,000 from 2013, YI’s analysis found.

Meanwhile, corporate debt has doubled since the last financial crisis. Thousands of companies are so highly leveraged that even a slight economic downturn could completely wipe them out.

State and local government debt levels are also at record highs, but nobody seems to care. And if we never have another recession everything might work out okay.

The biggest offender of all, of course, is the United States federal government. We have been adding about a trillion dollars a year to the national debt since Barack Obama first entered the White House, and Goldman Sachs is projecting that number will surpass 2 trillion dollars by 2028…

The fiscal outlook for the United States “is not good,” according to Goldman Sachs, and could pose a threat to the country’s economic security during the next recession.

According to forecasts from the bank’s chief economist, the federal deficit will increase from $825 billion (or 4.1 percent of gross domestic product) to $1.25 trillion (5.5 percent of GDP) by 2021. And by 2028, the bank expects the number to balloon to $2.05 trillion (7 percent of GDP).

Our national debt has been growing at an exponential rate for decades, and because total disaster has not struck yet many people seem to believe that we can keep on doing this.

But the truth is that it simply is not possible. There is only so much debt that a society can take on before the entire system implodes.

So how close are we to that point?

The following chart comes from Charles Hugh Smith, and it shows the exponential rise in overall debt levels that has taken us to the brink of nearly 70 trillion dollars in debt…

And this next chart from the SRSrocco Report shows how our rate of overall debt growth has compared to our rate of GDP growth…

We are literally on a path to national suicide.

Whether it happens next month, next year or five years from now, it is inevitable that we are going to slam into a brick wall of financial reality.

For the moment, the only way that we can continue to enjoy our current debt-fueled standard of living is to continue increasing our debt bubble at an exponential rate.

But that can only go on for so long, and when the party ends we are going to experience the greatest debt crisis in history.

Today, the average American household is nearly $140,000 in debt, and that is more than double median household income. And if we were to include each household’s share of corporate debt, local government debt, state government debt and federal government debt, that number would be many times higher.

All of this debt will never be repaid. Ultimately there will come a day when the system will completely collapse under the weight of so much debt, and most Americans are completely unaware that such a day of reckoning is rapidly approaching.

[RedBaron]

Just looking at the first point, isn't the SMI defined as yesterday's SMI – opening gain or loss + last hour change? Maybe a portion of market participants don't like the volatility and brash emotional reaction that market participants have to certain things trump says (ie north korea, trade with china, etc)? I look at the few stocks I have invested in and I see that mutual funds have increased their stakes by large portions...isn't that the "real" smart money? Please correct me if I'm wrong, I don't have a finance degree.

ZH has been posting doom and gloom for ages. I have my stops set in the market and I follow our boyz 4 points listed above.

Edit: Wow nice article Jim^^^

[Cajundaddy]

Originally Posted by pwd72s

The reasons given in the article from zero hedge seem accurate enough. Can anyone here dispute them?

That said, maybe the conclusion is in error...feel free to make your own judgements on that.

Important trigger word here. ^^

1. "The smart investors are getting out of the market" No they are not. See Warren Buffett. He isn't going anywhere. The entire rest of the article is equal amounts of steer manure designed to manipulate readers, create fear, and sell advertising hits.
https://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/

If it looks like steer manure, smells like steer manure, it probably is steer manure. Read more Buffett and less Zero.

[tabs]

Buffets views are POLLYANNA. It has worked for decades for him, however all those decades was when America was eating high on the hog. So his Bullishness is a bit biased on two counts, one is his mindset of an ever prosperous America based upon the past and two he has a lot to lose if it goes south, so is he really going to tell you anything?

[Cajundaddy]

Originally Posted by tabs

Buffets views are POLLYANNA. It has worked for decades for him, however all those decades was when America was eating high on the hog. So his Bullishness is a bit biased on two counts, one is his mindset of an ever prosperous America based upon the past and two he has a lot to lose if it goes south, so is he really going to tell you anything?

The thing is... I think Buffett is absolutely right. The doom and gloomers? Not so much.

[tabs]

If you folks don't get it by now you never will. Hopefully like the frog you will just be cooked and have to wallow in the stew of your own making. Which if you do a close analysis of events over the past decade you will notice a marked deterioration of the situation. To make it easy we can use Presidents as a bell weather...From Reagan, to Bush to Clinton to GW, to BHO, and now TRUMP. The other scenario is that you will wake up one day and the bottom will have fallen out, and you will run around like the proverbial chicken with your head cut off, wondering how did this happen. Well you have been told and have no excuses.

Sadly the mass of the population through the ages have been complacent sheeple grazing out in the pasture until the big bad wolf comes and devours them.

With what has been posted here I feel within myself a finality. The message is solidly out there which is slowly becoming mainstream. The realization is sinking in that we are all standing on the deck of a global sinking ship.

Some may still desperately think there are solutions...let me enlighten you, the prevailing will is that there are more people punching holes in the side of the ship that lets the water in, than are trying to plug them up. Those who think solutions are desperately trying to cling to what is already lost to them. The US after everything is added up has a NEGATIVE 40T USD balance sheet. You are just borrowing what you got for awhile. You see what you got is on the collective credit card. As a society America and the world is BK.

[Cajundaddy]

You are actually starting to believe your own tripe Tabs. I will refer you to the theme song for this thread. Written when Buffett first started investing. Things managed to turn out ok in spite of worldwide chaos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCTdfo6T-u8

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/27/what-warren-buffett-learned-from-buying-his-first-stock-at-age-11.html

[tabs]

This morning I was watching some Jordan Peterspn vids on U Tube. In one of them he talked about young people exclaiming that they have RIGHTS and never before in history have so many people had so many rights. Instead we should be talking about RESPONSIBILITY which has become a silly quaint notion. Americans have abdicated their RESPONSIBILITY for taking care of themselves and handed it over to the government partially of which are entitlements and having your right to them. Unfortunately the government has fked things up with mismanagement and now the sloth of corruption.

Both political factions in America agree on one thing but from different perspectives. The Left scream Trump collusion and the Right screams BO, HRC and Bureaucratic corruption.

[Cajundaddy]

Turn off the news Tabs. It's all BS designed to scare you and by your many posts, I'd say it is working. There is far more to life than living in mortal fear of the next headline.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

You are actually starting to believe your own tripe Tabs. I will refer you to the theme song for this thread. Written when Buffett first started investing. Things managed to turn out ok in spite of worldwide chaos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCTdfo6T-u8

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/27/what-warren-buffett-learned-from-buying-his-first-stock-at-age-11.html

He bought his first stock in April of 1942 when the SP500 was 130. That was the low point for the SP 500 during his trading years. Today it is apx 2680. So my thinking is correct, it has been nothing but an upward trend in the US equities since he started trading in 1942.


http://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data
I am trying really hard to be nice to you...you do not want to know where I think you have your head or how dim of light bulb you really are.

[john70t]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

Written when Buffett first started investing.

Buffet has a new album coming out: "The base. The blow. The ho". Phat shizznat yo.

Tabs is not wrong but as long as the rest of the world is equally or more f'ked we will do ok. The oceans are dying and so in 50years China will start starving and have a revolution just because. We will keep printing money and importing new workers. They will keep needing customers. Europe will be over-run by the Middle East and turned into a giant ghetto and eliminating that competition. Russia will grow more chest hair. Israel will start pumping from gaza oil wells and flood the world whenever the Saudis studder. Japan and Korea will stick with electronics and cars hopefully affected by the head of Mao over the horizon.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

Turn off the news Tabs. It's all BS designed to scare you and by your many posts, I'd say it is working. There is far more to life than living in mortal fear of the next headline.

You just keep digging the hole deeper for yourself don't you. News for you, I don't watch the news. I turned the FAUX and all the others (as if I watched them to begin with) off right after the 2016 election.

I pull up the SP500 chart virtually everyday to get a peak of what is going on and that is about it. During the crisis years I would tune in to CNBC at 3AM PDT as solace. I got to emailing them which they would read while on air...they even made comment on air about me after one of the first of them... My stuff had an effect on them and the discussion. As it did with CR and guests from time to time.

Strangely some of the stuff has been repeated by some very interesting people.

Locally the term "spoon" has become common reference for a certain item on this Board.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by john70t

Buffet has a new album coming out: "The base. The blow. The ho". Phat shizznat yo.

Tabs is not wrong but as long as the rest of the world is equally or more f'ked we will do ok. The oceans are dying and so in 50years China will start starving and have a revolution just because. We will keep printing money and importing new workers. They will keep needing customers. Europe will be over-run by the Middle East and turned into a giant ghetto and eliminating that competition. Russia will grow more chest hair. Israel will start pumping from gaza oil wells and flood the world whenever the Saudis studder. Japan and Korea will stick with electronics and cars hopefully affected by the head of Mao over the horizon.

More or less....everybody is sliding to the bottom including the US. The question is will it be a soft landing or will some BLACK SWAN event cause a falling off the cliff? Stresses are building and with it risk.

[p911dad]

Interesting article in the WSJ about the return of the European Doom Loop, the Italian government kicked it off with the usual drama. The article explains that the southern Euro banks are large holders of Spanish and Italian debt, that the governments can't back realistically. The values plunged today and set off a major ripple in international banking. The doom loop is a downward spiral in gov't debt values (bonds) like eight years ago and the banks are getting hit hard. They have been whistling past the graveyard for years now.

[tabs]

On a lighter note today being a black lesbian woman I hate white people. They are such racists. Yesterday when I was an old white fk I fully admit that I am a cultural racist. So whenever I am a white person and am accused of being racist I say why yes I am.

I ask Jesus for forgiveness for my deplorableness. Let us kneel and pray to Jesus. Praise Jesus.