[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by kevin993

Logistics predictions (trying to stay out of the politics):

1) The surge of demand for housing will boost home prices in nearby neighborhoods. People who need homes are going to buy or rent in places near to where they were. Some will leave the area altogether (especially those who were considering leaving CA already).

2) The clean up process will take MUCH longer than home owners expect. Approvals, permits, and assessments from public sector and insurance companies. What is required? From whom? In what sequence? What is dependent on what? Most homeowners will have zero experience and struggle to learn on the fly. It will take a LONG time before anyone pivots from clean-up to rebuilding.

3) Demand for contractors of all types will increase. Supply will emerge but contractors will have more work than they can handle. Some will be licensed. Others will not. Frustrated homeowners will struggle to get appointments, get on a list, get attention, and get work done.

4) Insurance will not be sufficient to pay for temporary housing and rebuilding costs in many cases.

5) Government agencies and staff is not equipped for anything of this scale. They are not accustomed to the volume or the need to be nimble. There will be bottlenecks an delays.

6) Some people will try to "buy" their way to getting things done faster. In some cases, that will work. In others, it won't. At a minimum, it could be a factor that drives up costs and graft.

7) There are going to be lots of pain points on utilities, property taxes, etc. A homeowner with a pile of ash is not going to be thrilled about writing a $30k property tax check or paying a water bill based on broken valves.

8) Urban planners will want to re-imagine the burned areas and re-zone or re-plan them from a clean sheet of paper. Agree or disagree, different visions will delay rebuilding pace. At a minimum, new builds will cost more because of building codes and heightened sensitivity to fire risk.

9) Pacific Palisades and Altadena are two very different areas of LA. Different demographics, topography, etc. There will be differences in handling, treatment, pace, etc. Comparisons will be inevitable.

10) CA fire/natural disaster insurance is going to be bumpy and take time. Increased premiums, changes to coverage, govt role/backstop, etc. At present, premiums can't adequately reflect risk.


Terrible in all respects. Best wishes to all impacted.

#8 will be interesting. Will the government take advantage of this disaster to either rezone or make rebuilding difficult or cost prohibitive? Will someone like Blackrock swoop in to purchase the “unusable” lots to create high density luxury housing, likely marketed as being “fire resistant”? This seems to be the script in Hawaii so it’s a definite concern. Many of the families impacted will likely be upside down and desperate to get a new home and move on with life, and not up to a protracted legal battle.