[aigel]

As you already found out it was a real bad move to negotiate a counter offer after signing for the new job. Now you are stuck - whatever you do, will piss someone off and will definitely damage your reputation. Even though you see this point, you probably underestimate the problems this may cause you in the future, especially with today's efficient online networking tools!

To minimize damage, my vote is for the new company. You can tell the old that you had to go, the offer would have expired and the uncertainty / conditions still weren't good enough.

Leaving the current company will only piss off the guy that tried to keep you on board. The facts of what exactly happened aren't as clear either. "didn't reach an agreement in the counter offer negotiations" is all that needs to be said here, compared to "walked out on a signed job offer".

Walking away from a signed offer will create very big damage, even if you don't have a business friend make the connection. It's like you aren't showing up to the wedding - lame and a huge PITA for the new company / hiring manager.

Another con of staying at your current company that you don't mention is that you will be black-balled as a quitter / blackmailer. I have seen situations where this led to being on the poopy list during the next lay off. Not with the guy countering, but his boss or his replacement. You did lose some trust here - someone that just wants better conditions doesn't walk in with a resignation letter.

Hope this helps?

George