Thanks !

Stay safe guys, with all the recent rain in NC this can't be good.

Some of the models dump 12-30 inches of water right over where I live in Va.
As said before- ground here is 100% saturated. The front yard has become a permanent tractorpulling mudhole/ stream this year, ordinarily it only has water for about 2 weeks in spring. It's never been like this for so long. If this hits with any wind at all, lots of trees are coming down. They will be restoring power for weeks.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536584532.JPG
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536584532.JPG.

At the bottom of the mountain, 20-30 inches of water would take some roads OUT!
If the forecast holds up, these roads are gonners:

- this blurry pic shows a field which will become a river with all the water coming off the mountain in the background. There is a house down there which will be toast. The VDOT guys had some equipment down there doing their best to prep.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536584621.JPG


That field drains under this road. It will be gone too if the predictions are right...

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536584621.JPG



Here is another road that catches all the water from the mountain. It gets bad flash flooding with several inches. Should be a washout.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536584621.JPG

It looks like consensus is building for a Wilmington, NC hit, but it is still early. Also, PM when you get settled in. I can get intro'd to a surprisingly small, but really deep 911 crowd near there.

I am partial to this site: Mike's Weather Page... powered by Sparks Energy!

Information overload.....:eek:

The facts, I just want the facts.

That's a new one for me. Thanks!

Blows, actually...

Mike's is a hurricane specific site. Windy is more of a general weather site. To each his own.

I use both.

The Windy site uses the same models everyone else does, just presents them graphically with a terrific interface.

Look in the lower right corner, you can pick a model and track it: The GF model has Florence sitting and spinning, the NAM and EC do not.

My daughter at UNCW is leaving for Raleigh right now. Still in the path, but not nearly as devastating as it will be Wilmington.

Have recently retired friends that just finished a beautiful "forever" home in N. Myrtle Beach and own 2 rentals around Emerald Isle, NC. This could be a triple whammy for them. :(

Outerbanks -

https://twister.asc.ohio-state.edu/models/view/nam/sfc/20180910/12

GFS has it stopping just as it gets to the coast - Which could turn it into an even more deadly storm

My friend in Swansboro NC is already feeling the effects.http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536608744.jpg

Just peachy....

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536609322.png

I am trying to figure out how that is even possible?

The storm is still 1200 Miles from mainland US.

Is your friend messing with you?

I think he is messing with you. Here is a screen shot from the live webcam at the Ocean Isle pier.

http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploa...1536612042.JPG

Anyone in the path a 1st timer? I have been through a few of these now. I spent the entire month of Sept 2004 without power with a 1 year old kid in the house.

We have a rule, weak cat3 and under sit tight.

Strong Cat 3 monitor with plans to sit tight but do not discount evacuating.

Cat4 and 5 GTFO out nothing is worth it and trust me sitting through a Cat 3 storm in your house is unnerving. The sound the wind makes screws up your head. Get away get somewhere safe and come back rested and ready to clean up.

Tips you will not get on the news.

- Gas pumps are usually on 24 hours a day, make a gas run, even if you have to run 100 miles away and get it in the middle of the night.

- Alcohol sales will be banned when evacuation is mandatory until well after the storm. Forget bread and milk make sure you have beer and whiskey.

- Fill your fridge with lots of water containers and freeze them all now, they will help keep things cold for a long while after the power goes out.

- Unplug your dishwasher, put things you cannot fit in your car in there, pictures papers thinks that you do not want to be water damaged. Close it up tight, it is water proof.

- You will be on your own after the storm, form a network of friends or family who you can work together with and help.

Above all else, be safe, I am hoping this storm would turn away and go bother the fish.

Ron, I'm concerned as well, and we're on highish ground in Ivy. I do have a whole house generator though, so if you lose power for an extended time you're welcome here...