Tesla: The Great Short

[sammyg2]

Note that I'll be buying back on the dip.
Not sure how low that'll be, maybe $1400? Less?

[sammyg2]

In other news, I sold off most of my aggressive investments a week er two ago or so, got skared I was being too greedy and worried the bottom was gonna fall out.

Ended up spreading it around with roughly 80% various bonds and such. Heavy on income low on risk.
So while I'm gigglin about making peanuts on tsla I missed out on huge chunks O'cash iffn I hadn't changed strategy.
But I'k ok with that, slept good since that move knowing I won't loooose everything and hafta get a job at the quicky-mart.

Still nervous re-the market, I figure it WAAAAYYY over-bought. Thought that before, worse now. Could be wrong tho.

[sammyg2]

down to $1550. Dropping like a rock.
When to buy, when to buy .....


edit: down to 1500, limit order in at 1000

i got time.

[biosurfer1]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

down to $1550. Dropping like a rock.
When to buy, when to buy .....


edit: down to 1500, limit order in at 1000

i got time.

Nothing like 20% swings in a single day! Hold on to those hats

Wonder what Musk thinks today, seeing that it's more than doubled since this tweet:

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by biosurfer1

Nothing like 20% swings in a single day! Hold on to those hats

No kidding.

Day's Range 1,505.00 - 1,794.99

[sammyg2]

Last week there were about $20 billion shorted, I'll be curious to see how much that number goes up after today.

[sammyg2]

[sammyg2]

Buy order is in, 6 shares at $1200. Prolly won't get filled but so what.

Good article:

Is Tesla Worth $2,322 or $300? How 10 Analysts See the Stock.
Published: July 15, 2020 at 10:45 a.m. ET

Tesla is a controversial stock. That means investors need to sharpen their pencils and try to understand what analysts are saying—because when controversy is high, the Wall Street consensus doesn’t mean anything.

There are a number of ways to quantify a controversial stock. One way is to look at analyst price targets. For Tesla (ticker: TSLA), target prices vary widely. The top analyst price target for the stock is now $2,322, set by Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter Tuesday. One of the lowest from major brokers comes from Cowen analyst Jeffery Osborne. His target price is just $300 a share.

The $2,022 bull-bear spread is about 133% of Tesla stock’s current level. That’s roughly three times the average bull-bear spread for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks. Yep, Tesla is controversial.

Potter uses a discounted-cash-flow, or DCF, model to arrive at his price target. A DCF is typically a detailed financial model that forecasts sales, profit margins, and interest rates. It’s a very useful tool for financial analysts, but, as is the case with any model, the more assumptions that go into it, the greater the chance for error.

When updating his target price Tuesday, Potter increased his profit-margin expectations because of Tesla’s lead in software technology. Tesla, for instance, sells software-derived vehicle features for thousands of dollars. He also increased his vehicle delivery assumptions.

(Potter’s target generated a “Wow” tweet from CEO Elon Musk.)

Osborne’s primary valuation metrics are price/earnings and price/ earnings growth, or PEG, ratios. A PEG ratio is useful for comparing valuation of other high-growth companies. It divides the PE ratio by the earnings growth rate. Tesla is growing fast, but Osborne believes the stock is still overvalued.

Potter rates shares the equivalent of Buy. Osborne’s rating is Sell. J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman, Barclays ’ Brian Johnson, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, and RBC’s Joseph Spak also rate shares the equivalent of Sell.

Brinkman has a $295 price target, just a hair below Osborne’s. He derives his price target “based on fundamentals alone,” blending his DCF value and 2021 earnings multiples.

Brian Johnson also has a $300 target price. He calls Tesla’s business execution impressive but its shares overvalued. He uses a “probabilistic” framework, meaning he blends several scenarios to come up with a target price. Interestingly, he publishes an upside and downside case for the stock. His upside target is $1,925 a share, but his downside number is $36.

Adam Jonas is a bear, but less bearish than Osborne, Brinkman, and Johnson. His price target is $740. He values the components of Tesla separately. The car business, for Jonas, is worth $703 a share based on Ebtida multiples. He values Tesla’s potential mobility business—such as autonomous taxis—at $37 a share. He values Tesla’s solar panel and energy storage business at zero.

Joseph Spak has a $615 price target. His method is a little different than other analysts. He uses a three times 2021 sales multiple and 18 times 2021 Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) multiple and adjusts his target for bull and bear scenarios.

There are so many ways to arrive at value. Those are the bears, Ben Kallo and Dan Ives are two Hold-rated analysts. Kallo has a $700 price target based on a 15 times 2022 Ebitda estimate—“in line with other large-cap high-growth peers,” he writes. He was bullish on Tesla stock for a long time, but downgraded shares in 2020 after the risk-reward became more “fairly balanced.”

Ives, for his part, has a $1,250 price target and values Tesla stock at 42 times his 2025 estimated earnings of $30 a share. Wall Street’s 2023 earnings estimate, by comparison, is roughly $24 a share.

Jefferies’ Philppe Houchois and JMP Securities’ Joe Osha are two more bullish analysts. Osha’s price target is $1,500. He values Tesla like “other category killers,” including Apple (AAPL). That leads him to higher market-share and profit-margin assumptions than traditional auto makers have achieved.

Houchois’ price target is $1,200. Like Potter’s, it is DCF derived. It is the first true valuation repeat among Barron’s sample. Still, assumption differences drive a $1,122 price difference. That’s $200 billion of market value.

That’s how 10 analysts arrived at a value for Tesla shares. Thirty-six analysts cover the company, according to Bloomberg. The average analyst price target now sits a little below $900.

That’s well below where shares trade, but it’s hard to keep up. Tesla stock has risen 268% year to date, crushing comparable returns of the Dow and S&P 500. Tesla is now the world’s most valuable car company.

Tesla stock was down 0.8%, at $1,504.41, in recent trading. The S&P 500 was up 1.2%.

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/is-tesla-worth-2-322-or-300-how-10-analysts-see-the-stock-51594824352?mod=mw_quote_news

[Sooner or later]

I received an email today. Being a past Tesla stock owner I can participate in a class action lawsuit against them. I I think it is over the Solar City deal. I'm rich! Probably be worth a buck or two.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

I received an email today. Being a past Tesla stock owner I can participate in a class action lawsuit against them. I I think it is over the Solar City deal. I'm rich! Probably be worth a buck or two.

Can't help to think that somehow, the gubmint will end up covering the payout of that lawsuit
So maybe you'll get your dollar back

[G50]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

. . . participate in a class action lawsuit . . . Probably be worth a buck or two.

Literally.

[madcorgi]

Originally Posted by G50

Literally.

Exactly. I was part of a class action settlement after my employer lost all the personal data for employees to hackers. Got a check for a whopping $12.50.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by G50

Literally.

I know. My action was to delete the email.

[sammyg2]

LOl, from the "are you sheeting me" department:

Tesla stock hit a new high before closing down. The problem is it didn’t. It was a stock that resembles Tesla, the electric-vehicle pioneer. Investors appeared to be confused by near-identical stock tickers: TSLA and TLSA.

The stock in question is TLSA, or Tiziana Life Sciences, and investors sent it to an intraday record on Wednesday in apparent confusion with Tesla. Interestingly, its move over the past month is strikingly similar to the stock of Tesla (TSLA). Tiziana stock is up 47% over the past month. Tesla shares are up 56%. What’s more, Tiziana shares are up 219% year to date, while Tesla shares have gained 270%.

Tiziana is a biotech company with no sales and one analyst covering the company, according to Bloomberg. At the beginning of the year, the stock had a market value of less than $75 million.

[sammyg2]

A fool and his money are my best friends.
More:

Zoom Technologies (ZTNO) stock took a ride in the wake of the Zoom Video Communications (ZM) initial public offering. Eventually the SEC suspended trading in Zoom Technologies because of confusion. Shares were at $10.40 before the suspension. They opened weeks later at 30 cents before closing at $2.25. Shares closed at 37 cents Wednesday.

Zoom Technologies has no sales or analysts. Its market capitalization is only about $1 million.

It might seem like it goes without saying, but it doesn’t. Check stock symbols twice before trading.

[svandamme]

lol

So I guess investors aren't that smart after all??
Who'de ave thunk...

[sammyg2]

Couldn't resist.



Earnings report due this Wednesday.
Based on the past history (and hysteria) of this stock:
if the news is absolutely terrible the stock might go down a little.
If it's only marginally terrible, it'll go up a little.
If it's just bad, it'll go up a lot

[speeder]

Big gambler there.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

Couldn't resist.



Earnings report due this Wednesday.
Based on the past history (and hysteria) of this stock:
if the news is absolutely terrible the stock might go down a little.
If it's only marginally terrible, it'll go up a little.
If it's just bad, it'll go up a lot

Kiss of death. It will be at 1000 in short order.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by speeder

Big gambler there.

the basis of this thread was "all you people are bashing tesla, why don't you do something about it"? Put your money where your mouth is so to speak.
An expert is someone who can tell you 1000 ways to make love but doesn't know any women.
get in the game and then pop off. Right?

Well I'm in the game.
But since tesla is all hype and little substance and priced stupid-high, I'm only playing with the $$ left over in an account right on this turkey. Like change in an ash tray. last year I bought almost 100k of tsla and sold it for 1/4 mil. But today it's just stupid, too risky to go big.
How much you in for?

From 02-04-2020 in this thread:

Originally Posted by sammyg2

in October I sold BA and bought TSLA around $255/per

Yes it's a pig and I don't like kool-aid, but there was one more space left on the bandwagon and I was playin.
today

Status Filled at $897.3901
Symbol TSLA
Description TESLA INC COM
Action Sell
Quantity All Shares
Order Type Market
Time in Force Day
Conditions None
Trade Type Cash
Market Session Standard
Order Date 02/04/2020, 10:13:06 AM ET

six weeks after I sold that, it bottomed at $361.