Tesla: The Great Short

[sugarwood]

Originally Posted by trader220

Do you understand how the time spread works and how to trade off of it?

All I read is that you're selling calls.

[trader220]

Originally Posted by speeder

At least since the beginning of this thread. In all fairness, the guy is an options trader, (not former as his avatar says), not an investor. And also to be fair, absolutely no one on earth saw TSLA’s meteoric rise coming. That said, I believed in TSLA way before this thread started and disagreed with any short people on page one, if not mistaken. I knew that Tesla would survive.

There is being wrong and then there is being the most wrong anyone has ever been in the history of investing.

To be honest I have had some net short positions from time to time but for the most part have not been short TSLA, and absolutely not just balls out short stock.

The time spread on the 1000 strike I am letting rip. If we blow through the 1000 strike this week I end up exercising the 1000 calls and then I am short the next weeks 1000 calls vs long stock. That's where the risk is, if the stock tanks after that, I am only hedged by the amount of premium left in the 1/22 1000 calls I am short. So if the stock reverses after this week I need to be careful on how and when I close the position. If the stock reverses this week I can sit tight and manage the short 1/22 1000 strike calls. If the stock keeps going through next week I do nothing and I just keep the 3 bucks and change I sold the spreads for.

To be honest, I don't give a **** about the company. The stock is too rich for me to want to own it in a long term account here, and I would never short the thing for anything more than very short periods of time. The iV spread, 1/15 vs. 1/22 was all I was looking at. When the iV curve gets that steep its a good time to sell the time spreads. I have no interest in having any position on past 1/22 at least until after earnings.

My avatar says "former" because I retired from being an institutional trader. However as you pointed out, I have not forgotten the nearly 30 years of knowledge and experience I gained as a trader.

I agree, anyone who says they saw these kinds of moves coming is not being honest. I freely admit I am not aces on fundamental analysis, however I know enough to know that a p/e of over 1700 is not sustainable. Something's got to give. By the same token, I know very well that John Maynard Keynes was correct in that the market (TSLA) can remain irrational longer than I can remain liquid, and for that reason I wont be long or short the stock for anything other than short term plays and only via options.

[trader220]

Originally Posted by sugarwood

All I read is that you're selling calls.

That's odd because I didn't post anywhere that I just sold calls.

[epbrown]

I'm actually a little torn. I was buying $10k worth of AAPL when it split, and decided to get $10k of TSLA as well. My money doubled on the TSLA so I sold it last week and bought another $20k of Apple. But TSLA is still on a tear, and now I'm wondering if I should have sold just half, and bought more Apple every time the remaining Tesla shares doubled.

I blame Pac-Man - I got burned so many times trying to get that last 1600-point flashing ghost, 40 years later I'm still gun-shy.

[ItzaMe]

Originally Posted by epbrown

I'm actually a little torn. I was buying $10k worth of AAPL when it split, and decided to get $10k of TSLA as well. My money doubled on the TSLA so I sold it last week and bought another $20k of Apple. But TSLA is still on a tear, and now I'm wondering if I should have sold just half, and bought more Apple every time the remaining Tesla shares doubled.

I blame Pac-Man - I got burned so many times trying to get that last 1600-point flashing ghost, 40 years later I'm still gun-shy.

Nice move selling early in the year

[epbrown]

Originally Posted by ItzaMe

Nice move selling early in the year

A mixed bag - Tesla dropped, but so has the Apple I bought with the proceeds (though not as much).

[john70t]

Despite all the previous hype over runaway Prius, the Tesla crashes got barely a second glance from media. I still don't understand how the NHTSA allowed experimental vehicles to be advertised as 'fully autonomous' and sold as such. It's literally using public motorways as test tracks for an experiment technology that will require at least a hundred times the existing sensory power and AI to be the equivalent of a safe driving human. That's not even counting the ability to know when other people are more likely to drive crazy such as after sports games, or new years eve, or during a Friday freezing rain. The Tesla sensors are easily fooled by conflicting circumstances and/or input data. Sometimes they just simply drive on the wrong side of a two lane road. Outrageously dangerous.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banned-youtube-devastating-video-details-teslas-full-self-driving-claims-versus-reality
"It's financially insane to buy anything other than a Tesla," the video shows Musk saying in April 2019.
The video also shows Musk in 2015 saying that Tesla will have autonomy in 3 years. It then shows Musk in 2018 saying that by the end of the following year, full self driving would be 100% to 200% safer than humans driving.
Noting that Tesla was in financial turmoil at the times Musk made many statements, the video swiftly debunks each of Musk's points as it shows them, using footage of media reports and autonomous "beta testers".

The video banned from YouTube is here: https://www.veoh.com/watch/v142103958tzjgSYSk

[Sooner or later]

Here is rhe video on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/1pU5w0GxX9I

[McLovin]

I’ve done a lot of miles in Teslas.
I do agree, I’m surprised at how they are marketed as “self driving.”
They are pretty amazing, but they are definitely not anywhere near fully autonomous. It’s a dangerous situation where people, for whatever reason, drive them thinking they are.

[David]

I was in a traffic jam on Friday due to an accident. When I finally got to the accident I saw a burned out car off the right of the highway. The car was burned almost to the ground with the only car looking thing left being the wheels. I can’t be sure what they were but they sure looked like Tesla wheels. Then I went online and looked up pictures of burned Teslas and they looked identical to what I saw.

[techweenie]

Originally Posted by David

I was in a traffic jam on Friday due to an accident. When I finally got to the accident I saw a burned out car off the right of the highway. The car was burned almost to the ground with the only car looking thing left being the wheels. I can’t be sure what they were but they sure looked like Tesla wheels. Then I went online and looked up pictures of burned Teslas and they looked identical to what I saw.

LOL. Good thing gasoline vehicles never burn!

[David]

Originally Posted by techweenie

LOL. Good thing gasoline vehicles never burn!

I've seen plenty of burned ICE vehicles but nothing like this. I'm still an electric car fan and will likely have one in the next 5 years but it sure got my attention.

[sammyg2]

TSLA is down to 601 and meme stocks are through the roof.

As soon as they sell off those meme stocks, they'll be putting their gains somewhere else.
Patterns over the previous 5 months would indicate that somewhere else will include TSLA.
At least that's what I'll be doing

[trader220]

Good luck with that.

[sammyg2]

Thanks, it's always better to be lucky than good.

[trader220]

Luck runs out.

[thor66]

pretty fun 2 year old thread

[techweenie]

I wish I had put money in TSLA 2 years ago, but I have a little $ in it now, plus ARK.K, which is in TSLA and a lot of other tech. I still have money in Micron Technology, which has more than doubled since I bought, but the star of my portfolio is LCTN, which I bought 11 months ago at $36. Last I looked, it was $320. So, I guess I've bet heavily in TSLA and crypto... I have no non-tech stocks.

[1990C4S]

Originally Posted by David

I've seen plenty of burned ICE vehicles but nothing like this. I'm still an electric car fan and will likely have one in the next 5 years but it sure got my attention.

ICE or electric, the car is totaled either way. Only the level of destruction differs.

If the gas tank was spread out under the entire floor pan, and only 6" deep, I suspect the results would be similar to an EV fire.

[sammyg2]

In at 594