The Re-Opening Plan

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by cabmando

I'm not saying it's going to burn to the ground. I'm just saying this virus put more hurt on us economically than it ultimately will in the loss of life.

The gambit is sacrificing the short term so that the long term isn't apocalyptic. The framers of the plan put in place believe that the actions taken now will halt widespread contagion and high mortality rates leading to actual economic meltdown, not some milquetoast slowdown that we'll recover from just fine.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

Hey Bill,

For years I’ve been arguing that the reality is such that nobody is gonna be there to save anybody, especially not the government. I’m the pessimist’s pessimist about the economy. I even tried to tell TABS to take his rose-colored Ray-Ban Aviators off and look at the real world.

That is really funny..for I have been saying that the USD is going to turn to TP and the Govt Debt is going to blow up like Krakota destroying govt ability to even function. So all you would have to do is add up the pieces of that equation to see that the system is done. Where a new dark ages is possible. Nostatus told me to take a "chill pill" back in 10 when I ran that one by you all.

Maybe you missed something there????

[tabs]

Originally Posted by cabmando

I'm not saying it's going to burn to the ground. I'm just saying this virus put more hurt on us economically than it ultimately will in the loss of life.

By George I think you got it...

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

The economy hasn't been shut down so it doesn't need to be restarted.

I have to disagree. I live in Ohio and our governor shut down everything except essential services and agriculture. Ohio's economy isn't insignificant to the national economy.
Gov. Dewine will eventually been seen as either a thoughtful leader or a fool, but he has the courage to make hard decisions, and I have to admire that.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by cabmando

I'm not saying it's going to burn to the ground. I'm just saying this virus put more hurt on us economically than it ultimately will in the loss of life.

How do you measure the hurt of the loss of tens of thousands of loved ones? How many dollars is a life worth?

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

You deal in buffets and the U.S. losing world currency status.

Well Shauny you are welcome to think what you like...your opinion is valuable as are some other parties who take me seriously.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

How do you measure the hurt of the loss of tens of thousands of loved ones? How many dollars is a life worth?

I know that comes across as crass but ultimately TENS if not hundreds of millions will be hurt as a result of this. I'm not putting a dollar value on life. I posted a statistic earlier about suicide and economic downturns. Make no mistake, the virus and the loss of jobs/incomes will result in the loss of life.

[RWebb]

workers who surged to Walmart, Cosco, etc. can return to servers, baristas

will be hired to do a deep clean of the tables, etcs. or new biz created temporarily to clean up


airline employees??

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by cabmando

I know that comes across as crass but ultimately TENS if not hundreds of millions will be hurt as a result of this.

I understand that economic decline can be stressful, I do feel sorry for those who become so despondent that they chose to end their lives. But at least it's a choice.

I'm also concerned with life's fighters who don't give up. I grew up crapping in a little white house out back. I came up from nothing and if I have to I can go back where I came from as long as I have MrsWD. I am willing to sacrifice for the greater good, but if the greater good is just making sure everyone who survives can make their Winnebago payments, I'm out. I cannot conceive of either of us having our lives cut short by this virus because other people were so attached to their wealth they wouldn't sacrifice what was asked of them.
You can recover from being poor, I know, I've done it. You don't recover from dead.

[legion]

The whole point is to drive down the economy. They aren't worried about reopening anything.

[Captain Ahab Jr]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

I understand that economic decline can be stressful, I do feel sorry for those who become so despondent that they chose to end their lives. But at least it's a choice.

I'm also concerned with life's fighters who don't give up. I grew up crapping in a little white house out back. I came up from nothing and if I have to I can go back where I came from as long as I have MrsWD. I am willing to sacrifice for the greater good, but if the greater good is just making sure everyone can make their Winnebago payments, I'm out. I cannot conceive of either of us having our lives cut short by this virus because other people were so attached to their wealth they wouldn't sacrifice what was asked of them.
You can recover from being poor, I know, I've done it. You don't recover from dead.

100% agree with your sentiments but I have to raise an objection with your last sentence

You can recover from dead, I know. I've done it

Mrs Ahab and I have lived well below our means all our life, to the point sometimes we feel we miss out on some of the finer things in life. We've tried to build our family life around experiences from travelling the world and not from chasing money or possessions

I can see this virus being the big reset a lot of folk need.

Hopefully people will re-find the joy of enjoying being contented with the simpler pleasures in life like buying local food/products, outdoor/healthy activities, reading, learning new skills, up cycling/repairing not replacing, friends and family, less time at work etc etc

Kind of like what I'd imagine living in the 50's must have been like, everything must have been simpler

[Crowbob]

Originally Posted by legion

The whole point is to drive down the economy. They aren't worried about reopening anything.

Who do you think is 'they'?

[Brando]

Don't place blame of our economy slowing down/coming to a halt on a virus. A virus doesn't issue executive orders, demand businesses close or the sheriff/state police will come 'enforce' on you, or make sweeping declarations.

Just imagine the precedence this sets. If government can declare a nation-wide (also state-wide, county-wide, and city-wide) emergency that impacts our lives to this degree - what else would they do? Such drastic measures were not taken post 9-11. Not even when SARS hit. Or H1N1. Or when measles was on the rise just a couple years ago. Why all of a sudden such an over-reaction now?

[Crowbob]

Maybe it isn't an over-reaction. Maybe the honchos know more than they are letting on.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

Maybe it isn't an over-reaction. Maybe the honchos know more than they are letting on.

We have at least two legislators who knew enough to adjust their stock portfolios before they let the public know what was happening.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

I understand that economic decline can be stressful, I do feel sorry for those who become so despondent that they chose to end their lives. But at least it's a choice.

I'm also concerned with life's fighters who don't give up. I grew up crapping in a little white house out back. I came up from nothing and if I have to I can go back where I came from as long as I have MrsWD. I am willing to sacrifice for the greater good, but if the greater good is just making sure everyone who survives can make their Winnebago payments, I'm out. I cannot conceive of either of us having our lives cut short by this virus because other people were so attached to their wealth they wouldn't sacrifice what was asked of them.
You can recover from being poor, I know, I've done it. You don't recover from dead.

I'm certain the ones with Winnies aren't the ones being hurt. It's the folks that live paycheck to paycheck. It's the folks who are working 2 jobs to make ends meet. It's the folks that are now where you came up from who will suffer from this... by the millions.

[Crowbob]

We also have a president who did a 180 at some point. He is being criticized for not turning soon enough. Then in shockingly quick succession, many states put out very severe executive orders. And now we have a virtual national shut-down doing enormous economic damage. Congress is passing huge financial rescues which everybody knows we can't afford. Are these governors, congress, the medical community and the president all being tricked?

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

We also have a president who did a 180 at some point. He is being criticized for not turning soon enough. Then in shockingly quick succession, many states put out very severe executive orders. And now we have a virtual national shut-down doing enormous economic damage. Congress is passing huge financial rescues which everybody knows we can't afford. Are these governors, congress, the medical community and the president all being tricked?

To a degree, yes IMO

[RWebb]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

We also have a president who did a 180 at some point. He is being criticized for not turning soon enough. Then in shockingly quick succession, many states put out very severe executive orders. And now we have a virtual national shut-down doing enormous economic damage. Congress is passing huge financial rescues which everybody knows we can't afford. Are these governors, congress, the medical community and the president all being tricked?

No - they were simply made aware of multiple epidemiological models - all of which predicted > 1 million US deaths if no control measures were implemented

Itis to Trump's credit that he did a 180, but to his detriment that he poo-poo'ed the situation for a month or longer

Here is a graphic based on those models:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/20/us/coronavirus-model-us-outbreak.html

[pmax]

Originally Posted by Seahawk

Nothing political about this, but it will become so. What we need is movement to metrics for Re-opening:

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/03/needed-reopening-plan-fast.html

Shutting everything down and staying home for a few weeks is a sledgehammer.

Not everything. Work at tech companies like mine haven't missed a beat.
Service industries will have to adapt to survive. Takeout orders, Online meetings etc.

Here's what's considered essential here.
For the purposes of this Order, “Essential Businesses” means:

Healthcare Operations and Essential Infrastructure;
Grocery stores, certified farmers' markets, farm and produce stands, supermarkets, food banks, convenience stores, and other establishments engaged in the retail sale of canned food, dry goods, fresh fruits and vegetables, pet supply, fresh meats, fish, and poultry, and any other household consumer products (such as cleaning and personal care products).
This includes stores that sell groceries and also sell other non-grocery products, and products necessary to maintaining the safety, sanitation, and essential operation of residences;
Food cultivation, including farming, livestock, and fishing;
Businesses that provide food, shelter, and social services, and other necessities of life for economically disadvantaged or otherwise needy individuals;
Newspapers, television, radio, and other media services;
Gas stations and auto-supply, auto-repair, and related facilities;
Banks and related financial institutions;
Hardware stores;
Plumbers, electricians, exterminators, and other service providers who provide services that are necessary to maintaining the safety, sanitation, and essential operation of residences, Essential Activities, and Essential Businesses;
Businesses providing mailing and shipping services, including post office boxes;
Educational institutions-including public and private K-12 schools, colleges, and universities-for purposes of facilitating distance learning or performing essential functions, provided that social distancing of six-feet per person is maintained to the greatest extent possible;
Laundromats, drycleaners, and laundry service providers;
Restaurants and other facilities that prepare and serve food, but only for delivery or carry out. Schools and other entities that typically provide free food services to students or members of the public may continue to do so under this Order on the condition that the food is provided to students or members of the public on a pick-up and take-away basis only. Schools and other entities that provide food services under this exemption shall not permit the food to be eaten at the site where it is provided, or at any other gathering site;
Businesses that supply products needed for people to work from home;
Businesses that supply other essential businesses with the support or supplies necessary to operate;
Businesses that ship or deliver groceries, food, goods or services directly to residences;
Airlines, taxis, and other private transportation providers providing transportation services necessary for Essential Activities and other purposes expressly authorized in this Order;
Home-based care for seniors, adults, or children;
Residential facilities and shelters for seniors, adults, and children;
Professional services, such as legal or accounting services, when necessary to assist in compliance with legally mandated activities;
Childcare facilities providing services that enable employees exempted in this Order to work as permitted. To the extent possible, childcare facilities must operate under the following mandatory conditions:
Childcare must be carried out in stable groups of 12 or fewer ("stable" means that the same 12 or fewer children are in the same group each day).
Children shall not change from one group to another.
If more than one group of children is cared for at one facility, each group shall be in a separate Groups shall not mix with each other.
Childcare providers shall remain solely with one group of children.