The Re-Opening Plan

[Seahawk]

To get back on track.

I'd like to hear from knowledgeable people concerning reasonable metrics that will enable businesses to reopen without legal ramifications...which is, frankly, extremely important.

My company can easily work from home and are in a good position with active government contract to keep everyone employed, perhaps add some folks if Navy contracts still functions. We can't do any classified work but we are developing legal alternatives.

However, I am good friends with some local vendors that are grappling with how and when, based on what council and the source of the council.

The link again: https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/03/needed-reopening-plan-fast.html

The comments are in the mean excellent.

I appreciate any input that advances the discourse.

Best.

[cabmandone]

I don't believe it's going to be up to businesses to determine when they reopen. Once business owners allow their businesses to be shuttered for "the public good" they've lost any control.

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by cabmando

I don't believe it's going to be up to businesses to determine when they reopen. Once business owners allow their businesses to be shuttered for "the public good" they've lost any control.

That is the essence of my original post. Those in the service industries are a bit in irons over this.

What is the legal exposure in this very, very litigious society?

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by Seahawk

What is the legal exposure in this very, very litigious society?

I don't understand that question. Are there possible legal exposures you have in mind?

[RWebb]

Yes, a business that reopens when ordered to close would have legal exposures of several types.

You might find the police at your door or even the Nat'l Guard.

Also, someone who became sick or died could sue in civil court (tort) using a public nuisance theory.

Specifics depend on the state laws, not to mention the ... ah... specifics of the situation.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by RWebb

Yes, a business that reopens when ordered to close would have legal exposures of several types.

I wasn't thinking of reopening in violation of the law. I was thinking about any possible legal exposure when reopening after the restrictions are lifted. Are people seriously asking what are the penalties for remaining open in violation of an ordered to close?

There was a bar in Cincinnati that was padlocked and the owner arrested for not closing after the order came down. Anyone who closes and then reopens would probably get the same.

[RWebb]

minimal & would depend on if an afflicted person could show that you had done so recklessly or negligently

[Iciclehead]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

If the machine called the economy requires coordination who was coordinating the economy prior to COVID-19?

It was in a steady state with the normal market feedback mechanisms and processes, if you read Ackoff's work on systems thinking, his work shows that in dynamic times, the gears do not mesh as well and things slip so you need to temporarily substitute for those feedback mechanisms to avoid further ripple effects down the chain.

For example....

All the major consulting companies have instituted work at home rules so their staff do not fly in to their clients. Say they believe that it is now safe to do so, but the airlines decide it is not.

Client's say WTF, where are your people....we have a contract with you for workers and we are now working, bring your people in.

Consulting companies say, not our fault, we are ready to go, but it's the airline's fault, call it force majeure.

Client says, not our problem, find the means....bus 'em in if you have to, get them here and then have them camp out here until the airlines are running again.

Can you spell "litigation".

Way out of it is for government (and it pains me to say this) needs to speak to consulting companies, speak to airlines, speak to clients and say its time to get back to work. On monday the airlines fly their pre-corona schedule and NO price gouging or we'll penalize you.

Everyone goes back to work. Trouble is, I have zero faith in government to either have the cojones or brainpower to even attempt any sort of coordination, in part as they legitimately fear they are wrong and people get sick after it was "supposed" to be over and blame them.

Also I have zero faith that the governments in many lands will withdraw once the economy gets ticking along, their tendencies to meddle are well proven and proven to be usually not effective or efficient.

But that is just my $0.02

Dennis

[Iciclehead]

Originally Posted by tabs

BTW I DEAL IN REALITY and NOT FANTASY..The tidings are grim...and are depressing but you have to deal with it. You have no other choice now because it is gob smacking you in the face...

Your thinking on the Micro level..you need to look at the MACRO machinations that effect peoples decisions and actions. The macro movements over the last decade leave little where with all to meet this crisis. Those machinations over the past decade have been done to sustain an appearance of a previous normalcy. where a NEW NORMAL was in fact operating out of sight. Now the CV tips the scales where that NEW NORMAL is in plain sight and you have to deal with that reality of having empty shelves...where previously they were full.

Yesterday and today the FED printed 150B. That is apx 2 months worth of QE3. They are putting up 500B A DAY at the REPO window, they are BACKSTOPPING Money Markets by accepting collateral for liquidity. They have put up 750B for QE 4.5 They are going to start BUYING muni bonds...

and soon corporate paper and even buying Stocks themselves like the BOJ does (and owns 75% of the Japanese equity market). They are moving to NEGATIVE US interest rates...at that point we may begin to see a cashless society as a move to be forced to use banks that are charging consumers negative interest rates. Gold ownership maybe prohibited as in 1933.

The price of Oil has virtually crashed to WTC 23.64 a barrel...I suspect sub 20 a barrel. Even Gold and Silver have crashed..but are now rebounding. When the Trillion $$ stimulus was announced the 10 yr Treasury bumped to about 1.2% and has fallen to sub 1% again. The USD is strong as all the other currencies are turning to shyte.

The GS prognostication for Qtr 2 GDP to fall by 24%. and the possibility of having 20% unemployment..can you say DEPRESSION..

Then we come to RE Foreclosures...there already is a moratorium, Car loan defaults and Credit Card defaults...they are already saying if you do not make a payment do not worry. Filing Income Taxes is now deferred till 7/15/20. Then we come to the 2K payments to everybody..which is designed help people meet their obligations to the banks and living expenses

ALL PENSION FUNDS, ANNUITIES, Mutual Funds and 401Ks are at risk because of the Stock Market rout.

Shauny you know full well what I said about CV being at DEFCON 3 back in January and the possible future outcome.

Tabs, I have not been tracking those metrics of late, in part as there are few that understand WTF they mean so it becomes more self gratification than useful for good conversation.

I too worry about the injection issue and also how to handle the inevitable defaults on RE and the laws that **shudder** governments will put in place to stop the rout.

The dynamic is interesting as they are issuing more funds but at 0% rate (if I hear Mnuchin correctly)...

Please confirm your data, I need to think a bit....

Dennis

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Seahawk

That is the essence of my original post. Those in the service industries are a bit in irons over this.

What is the legal exposure in this very, very litigious society?

Not sure there are steps that would minimize exposure to litigation. Even with the State giving "permission" to reopen, if someone gets sick as a result, there's nothing that will stop them from filing a lawsuit claiming negligence.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Incubation period is from 1 to 14 days. Proving you got the virus from visiting anywhere is next to impossible. Courts will throw out frivolous cases and fine both prosecuting attorneys and litigants faster than, I don't know, something really fast.

[RWebb]

yes, that's likely Shaun

[Shaun @ Tru6]

The courts will have zero tolerance for such buffoonery on the heels of a national, in fact worldwide, tragedy. It's a pandemic for god's sake. A store would have to force feed you a spoonful of covid19, on video, to be held accountable,

[Seahawk]

Perhaps.

Do a quick search on Ebola lawsuits, SARS lawsuits:

https://duckduckgo.com/?t=ffsb&q=law+suits+over+ebola&atb=v72-1&ia=web

What's past is prologue...wait until the "you got me sick and then I gave it to my Grandmother who died" lawsuits. The Cruise Industry is also in a panic. There are at least 25 ships doing circles waiting to find a port.

The company I own has already discussed this with our lawyer. We do not worry about our employees, btw, but the randoms...

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Anyone with a valid suit will be heard. Anyone saying they had a sandwich as Flo's Diner or saw Troll's World Tour at the local AMC and got covid19 there will most like be dismissed and fined.

[Bill Verburg]

So is Interstate commerce essential or not, I have a truckload of equipment for use in upstate NY in a truck in Ohio, driver says he can't deliver because the Gov has shut down NYS. But I see FedEx and UPS trucks running around, business as usual.

Now what happens to my truckload of already paid for equipment?

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Iciclehead

Tabs, I have not been tracking those metrics of late, in part as there are few that understand WTF they mean so it becomes more self gratification than useful for good conversation.

I too worry about the injection issue and also how to handle the inevitable defaults on RE and the laws that **shudder** governments will put in place to stop the rout.

The dynamic is interesting as they are issuing more funds but at 0% rate (if I hear Mnuchin correctly)...

Please confirm your data, I need to think a bit....

Dennis

I have made a terrible mistake I gave them credit for being smarter than they are..But then like an actor on the stage and my fellow Pelican being the other actors, I am speaking to the larger audience that is out there in the dark lurking. So I am not really talking to them exclusively. It has been that way for a long while.

They are calling the FED's back stopping the Money Market Buck standard.. A BACK DOOR BAILOUT of the banks...break that buck standard and the global financial system evaporates faster than I can type these fking words... So that means that the Defaults on Car loans and Credit Cards have started to hit the sytem, and now the banks have to pour money into those funds which effects their liquidity now that they are not getting those payments....WHOA...the fking shyte has already hit the fking fan...this rickety house of cards called the Global economy is being blown away like the little Pigs straw house...

Why do ya think that the govt is gona be sending you those checks in the mail...

Ice you are one of the few that I do not need to explain things to on this Board...the rest to varying degrees are out to fkin lunch..."restart the economy" It has to survive first. I won't say it wont but...holy shyte...

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Bill Verburg

So is Interstate commerce essential or not, I have a truckload of equipment for use in upstate NY in a truck in Ohio, driver says he can't deliver because the Gov has shut down NYS. But I see FedEx and UPS trucks running around, business as usual.

Now what happens to my truckload of already paid for equipment?

Let me know what it is, where in OH and where to in NYC. I'll see if I can use some of my contacts to help you out. PM if you want. I'll be shipping a machine to Long Island in the next week one way or the other.

[john70t]

Originally Posted by RWebb

Also, someone who became sick or died could sue in civil court (tort) using a public nuisance theory.

"This business or product contains known carcinogens and/or pathogens known to The State of California"


(edit:the rest moved to another thread)

[rattlsnak]

Originally Posted by Bill Verburg

So is Interstate commerce essential or not, I have a truckload of equipment for use in upstate NY in a truck in Ohio, driver says he can't deliver because the Gov has shut down NYS. But I see FedEx and UPS trucks running around, business as usual.

Now what happens to my truckload of already paid for equipment?

I think it depends on the company. We (at FedEx) just received our letter/card to carry with us that states that our company is an "Essential goods carrier" so we are allowed to be out on the road etc. (it had some special law code numbers on it ..)