The Re-Opening Plan

[billjam]

Originally Posted by Seahawk

Nothing political about this, but it will become so. What we need is movement to metrics for Re-opening:

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/03/needed-reopening-plan-fast.html

I read through the article that was originally the subject of this link and it was a really interesting and relevant data-based presentation of facts. Lot's of food for thought.
I sent the link to many of my friends, but they are now coming back saying that the link no longer works. I just checked it and it does work, but opens up a completely different article.
Can anyone provide a new link to the original article that seahawk provided?

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by billjam

I read through the article that was originally the subject of this link and it was a really interesting and relevant data-based presentation of facts. Lot's of food for thought.
I sent the link to many of my friends, but they are now coming back saying that the link no longer works. I just checked it and it does work, but opens up a completely different article.
Can anyone provide a new link to the original article that seahawk provided?

Good morning, Bill. Hope all is well. Please give my best to your family!

I have ported two links in the past few days. Both are below. As always, view with skepticism. They are both interesting points of view.

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/03/needed-reopening-plan-fast.html

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-evidence-over-hysteria

[billjam]

Thanks Paul, all's well here. Toni says hi.

In Australia, we have had two national addresses from the Prime Minister today which, among other things, have effectively shut down all businesses and locations where people congregate. Lot's of economic support for small businesses (us) and people out of work.
Most state borders are closed or will be closed in the next few days.
Social distancing is being pushed big time as this really seems to be the key to reducing the peak of infections and thus avoiding over-whelming of the health system.

[tubwreck]

Sure I'm going to regret this, but

(a) State and local health departments have since forever had the ability to close businesses for public health reasons.
(b) Expect in the future that the level of closure/restriction/lockdown will be tied to the occupancy rate for hospital and more particularly ICU beds.

I have colleagues in South Korea, where this situation is being managed, including

- Designating hospitals as COVID-19 or non-COVID-19 to preserve health delivery for "ordinary" issues.
- On-demand testing.
- You can subscribe for SMS notification whenever someone in your area tests positive, and you can then see an anonymized history of the persons recent travels, so you can see if you were on the same train or in the same restaurant and get tested if so.
- Plenty of toilet paper ins the shops

This will go from "exploding crisis" to "managed problem".

[john70t]

Social distancing is good practice to keep that person (breathing down your neck in line) from sneezing all over you.

But to enforce this only is simply bad medical practice with a heaping dollop of totalitarianism.
And that is what they are telling people.

The virus can survive several days on surfaces. Every common element you touch throughout the day has the potential of transmitting infection to another surface, realistically speaking. That includes everything from shaking hands, door handles, countertops, pens, forms, elevator buttons, coffee handles, etc. Once touched, everything can become a new source carried over by anyone. The possibilities are infinite. The solution is to wear gloves and masks in public.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by john70t

Social distancing is good practice to keep that person (breathing down your neck in line) from sneezing all over you.

And yet people can't figure it out. I'm standing in line at the register being polite and keeping my distance from the person at the register and up comes Karencoughsalot standing RIGHT behind me.

[wayner]

Seahawk

On the up side, and especially for government work, when things re-open there will be budgets that need to be spent before year end.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

I have seen a significant uptick in inquiries and orders over the weekend. Looks like working from home, a lot of guys are tearing their cars apart and want everything pretty going back in. Customer just dropped off a ton of BMW E12 stuff.

[john70t]

Originally Posted by cabmando

And yet people can't figure it out. I'm standing in line at the register being polite and keeping my distance from the person at the register and up comes Karencoughsalot standing RIGHT behind me.

Several times I've lifted my wallet and almost given someone behind me a good elbow to the face.
Oops.
Then I turned, lifted a hand, and said "Could you please step back just a bit until I am done? Thank you."

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by wayner

Seahawk

On the up side, and especially for government work, when things re-open there will be budgets that need to be spent before year end.

Odd but true. We are also getting a lot of inquires as to our capacity for manufacturing as companies look to onshore specific capabilities.

I don't manage the day-to-day efforts in the company I have a large share of in NC, but they have asked me to help in the efforts to respond.

My engineering partner in VA, different firm that is design and engineering services based (and is government compliant in accounting and contracts) has seen an increase in inquires as well. I am working today as a matter of fact.

The key will be to understand the Local, State and Federal guidelines as we get through this.

[Brando]

Quite a scary predicament - companies have been outsourcing so long, we don't know how to manufacture products here with all the regulations. I'm sure some businesses do but not all.

Originally Posted by Seahawk

[...] The key will be to understand the Local, State and Federal guidelines as we get through this.

[Iciclehead]

Originally Posted by tabs

I have made a terrible mistake I gave them credit for being smarter than they are..But then like an actor on the stage and my fellow Pelican being the other actors, I am speaking to the larger audience that is out there in the dark lurking. So I am not really talking to them exclusively. It has been that way for a long while.

They are calling the FED's back stopping the Money Market Buck standard.. A BACK DOOR BAILOUT of the banks...break that buck standard and the global financial system evaporates faster than I can type these fking words... So that means that the Defaults on Car loans and Credit Cards have started to hit the sytem, and now the banks have to pour money into those funds which effects their liquidity now that they are not getting those payments....WHOA...the fking shyte has already hit the fking fan...this rickety house of cards called the Global economy is being blown away like the little Pigs straw house...

Why do ya think that the govt is gona be sending you those checks in the mail...

Ice you are one of the few that I do not need to explain things to on this Board...the rest to varying degrees are out to fkin lunch..."restart the economy" It has to survive first. I won't say it wont but...holy shyte...

Random thought....if they are issuing at 0% rate, that implies that they see deflation in their future which ties to the idea of a shrunken economy or at least shrinking economic demand that they are trying to stabilize away from free fall.

I am busy doing this work thing....need to think some more.....

Dennis

PS - I am beginning to move towards your cataclysmic outcome premise, clearly the catalyst is this never-before-seen crisis event that unfreezes most embedded positions.

[reachme]

Expect in the future that the level of closure/restriction/lockdown will be tied to the occupancy rate for hospital and more particularly ICU beds.

Talking about reopening businesses without talking about health risk ignores the reasons for closing in the first place. Nobody expects this flu to go away. Everyone will likely get exposed. The delay is to increase our capacity to handle as we eliminate restrictions to business, to buy time.

At that point when there are X open beds (with ventilators?) they will have to loosen restrictions incrementally and watch cases surge.