Gas prices are... um well, wait a minute

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

Yes it is! A look at consumer spending would put your uncertainty to rest. Consumer spending is still up! Consumers aren't slowing their spending down because of inflation, they are going shopping and enjoying lower prices for the fuel to get them to the stores.

I suspect that consumer spending is up largely up because everything costs more, not because they are buying more. Prices of very many things are up double digits over the past 2 years.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by fintstone

I suspect that consumer spending is up largely up because everything costs more, not because they are buying more. Prices of very many things are up double digits over the past 2 years.

But they still aren't spending less, as they would if price increases were so onerous that they were limiting spending. Your devotion to your doom and gloom outlook just doesn't comport with reality.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by fintstone

So…you don’t think gasoline consumption being way down indicates that driving is down? Seriously?

Do you think that releasing strategic reserves (more supply) did not lower prices any? That is hilarious.

No fint, of course I do. But I also think that neither of those two factors are the cause of gas prices dropping significantly over the past few weeks.

Driving is up, particularly over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the strategic reserve releases are over, the administration "attacks on oil" haven't changed .... and your thesis is still fundamentally flawed imo.

[Sooner or later]

15 million barrels from the release are going out this month. This completes the original plan to release 180 million barrels. No additional releases have been announced at this time.

https://www.energy.gov/articles/doe-announces-final-contract-awards-president-bidens-emergency-release-strategic-petroleum

[KFC911]

^^^ My mistake SOL .... I thought the contracts ended at the end of Nov. I stand corrected on that... thanks! That said, 1 million per day is a minor amount in the big picture. The Colonial pipeline moves 3 million of finished product by my area, by fint's, and even up to Vinny's and beyond. Although I live very close to a tank farm, over the past 6 months, prices jumped up .50 and .30 at a time (overnight jumps) and floated back down .... many times moving in opposite directions, both locally and between states. The myth that stations make .02-.03 per gallon is just that.... a myth. Big oil profits and manipulation have been rampant imo... the former are documented and methinks local stations' have been gouging too .... some areas worse than others. Prices are still obscene out west .... YMMV, but that's how I see it.

[Sooner or later]

A lot is about to happen.

On top of the reserve releases ending...

OPEC is meeting today.

Unless something has changed the Russian crude sanctions start tomorrow.

Gonna be an interesting month or so...

[KFC911]

Thought I read somewhere that oil continues down to 60/bbl for several months, then back up next year....

But not if an Arab shiek farts .... so who really knows???

[Sooner or later]

No additional OPEC quota cut.

[JackDidley]

Sams had 87 for $2.84 and 93 for $3.33 today. Going the right direction.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

But they still aren't spending less, as they would if price increases were so onerous that they were limiting spending. Your devotion to your doom and gloom outlook just doesn't comport with reality.

They are buying less and spending more to do so. That was the point. Sadly, personal debt is way up to finance it. Pretty soon, the credit limits are maxxed out and they have to also pay to service the debt.

Face it, relatively wealthy, old, retired people on a Porsche board that own collector cars and spend their SS COLAs on toys/fun do not see the reality most people live with (heating oil up over 60% and food up over 14%).

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by KC911

No fint, of course I do. But I also think that neither of those two factors are the cause of gas prices dropping significantly over the past few weeks.

Driving is up, particularly over the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, the strategic reserve releases are over, the administration "attacks on oil" haven't changed .... and your thesis is still fundamentally flawed imo.

According to AAA, driving over Thanksgiving was not up to prepandemic levels. Anecdotally, we made a road trip on Thanksgiving this year traffic was certainly much less for the same trip prepandemic...so it might be different where you live.

Strategic releases are not yet over, and winter almost always sees lower demand for gasoline than summer.

[KFC911]

I have been referring to driving habits, gas prices, etc. over the past few months fwiw. And yes, around here, it's been a boomtown..... everything is up ..... except gas prices .

There is still a real disconnect here between gas prices and oil prices, and also the deltas between gas stations that simply don't follow historical patterns too.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by KC911

I have been referring to driving habits, gas prices, etc. over the past few months fwiw. And yes, around here, it's been a boomtown..... everything is up ..... except gas prices .

There is still a real disconnect here between gas prices and oil prices, and also the deltas between gas stations that simply don't follow historical patterns too.

Isn't it a "boomtown" there because the carpetbaggers are moving in en masse?

Gas is down everywhere over last year for sure...but still pretty high. Everything else is also way, way up.

I spend a lot of time in NC as well...near Asheville (long a carpetbagger boomtown) ...and drive across the state quite often (to my properties there). Traffic is terrible and real estate prices are high, but the locals all pretty much work service jobs and are priced out of the excess. The carpetbaggers did not bring industry jobs, only high prices and jobs at restaurants. Local natives typically live far out on rural roads and have to commute long distances to work that does not pay well enough to buy a home close in. They are really hurting. It is starting to look like the late 70s. According to Gas Buddy, regular runs from about $2.99 to $3.89 (median seems around $3.40 with the lowest at the airport Walmart (gas war of some sort?). It is usually much higher than you report near the interstate throughout the state (where I typically drive). You seem to have a "sweet spot" where you live. Good paying jobs and low prices...in God's country. Good for you.

[KFC911]

Fint, I live off of Wendover (where my rural boy scout camp was in '72) with a Jamestown address (now ... was G'boro). This area was still rural when I moved here (Wendover was a country road) and since then, High Point and Greensboro have expanded to meet and even the surrounding rural counties (where my ancestors settled hundreds of years ago) have boomed. The gas prices I notice are in Greensboro proper, High Point, Jamestown, and also out in the somewhat rural counties..... They vary in their deltas, but the historical patterns and trends this year have not been consistent, nor have they followed the price of oil like they always have.

And gas along the Interstate (in every state) is much higher .... that hasn't changed.

[stevej37]

Down 28 cents in the last 10 days here.

Reg is now $3.18/gal.

[KFC911]

Every time I've passed my goto station the past week or so the price has dropped a few cents... now at 2.83 and I'm nowhere near needing any. Lots of stations in that same range too ....

[stevej37]

$3.12 here today....the roads are busy.

[JackDidley]

$2.75 for 87 and $3.28 for 93 at Sams today.

[stevej37]

I just don't understand why the Indians get all the cheap gas.

I might have to join up.

[Evans, Marv]

Down to $4.76 here. It's getting so cheap, they'll start paying people to fill their tanks soon.