Any information about the Pacific Palisades Fire

[Cajundaddy]

Originally Posted by jyl

I think houses can be built to be much more fire resistant than the typical SoCal house. Fire-resistant cladding like cement board (Hardie), no eaves or fire resistant eaves w/o vents, fire-resistant roof material, appropriate landscaping. Any info on how much this helps in actual practice?

Anything to make a home more fire resistant helps. Clearing brush back 50' from structures, fire resistant roof and sidings, clear all combustibles from near the house. With a wind driven fire like this one, the heat is so intense that even a fully concrete house can burn because at 3000*F the radiant heat comes in through the glass windows and ignites the interior furnishings. They burn from the inside out.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by creaturecat

thankfully? i can only imagine how disgusting that conversation must be.

It is no different (the conversation in PARF) than when you recently/last posted there. Perhaps you should visit and voice your opinion on the political aspects of this crisis and how things might have been done differently to prevent this crisis versus directing insults towards those that choose to do so from OT. Your opinion would be welcomed and valued there as always...even if everyone did not agree with you.

[jyl]

Some insurance market info and guesses for those interested.

With all the insurance companies pulling out of high-risk areas of CA, the FAIR plan's dwelling exposure rose to $458BN in 2023 (plus $26BN commercial). Pacific Palisades was one of FAIR's top ten highest wildfire exposures at $5.9BN in 2023. More insurers pulled out in 2024, so FAIR's exposure would be at least $6BN now. Figure almost all of that $6BN is now a loss, plus some of whatever it has in Altadena, not in the top ten.

FAIR, like all last-resort insurance plans, does not have assets or re-insurance sufficient to cover major catastrophic losses - instead it has the ability to surcharge all insurance in the state. Edit: FAIR has about $2.5BN re-insurance total (no idea how much covers these areas) and $240MM cash. Similar to the FL last-resort plan, which I think should be also on the brink after Helene and Milton. So figure that's $6BN that may have to be surcharged broadly.

Total homeowners' multi-peril premium in CA was $13.7BN in 2023. Maybe $15BN now?

So spread $6BN over $15BN and that suggests a possible 40% surcharge. I don't know if CA can spread that over multiple years - not sure how, unless state wants to issue bonds.

On top of that, CA needs to keep private insurers in the state market if not draw back the ones who have been pulling back which is almost all of them. Recently CA changed its insurance rules to permit, essentially, much higher premiums via model-based underwriting and passing on re-insurance costs. That was already expected to raise premiums very substantially.

And before any of this, CA was already being forced to permit significant premium increases - I read Farmers (#2 carrier in state) got approval to raise homeowners' rates 34% after years of being limited to 7%.

So how much premium increase in high-risk areas are insurers and re-insurers going to need now, to keep them from pulling out? State Farm (#1 carrier in state) non-renewed 70% of its policies in Pacific Palisades last year which was 1600 homes, leaving 600-700 homes, at $2MM a pop that is around $1.3BN loss plus contents, temp housing, etc - that's like half a years of its CA homeowners premium income, gone. State Farm has been losing $BNs a year already - I'd think premiums will have to have to get much richer, not a little richer.

So my guess is CA homeowners premiums could go up as much as 2X broadly, and 3X or more in high-risk areas.

Sounds nuts and inconceivable, but that's what the numbers and losses imply. Can someone pull a rabbit from a hat?

Sounds unfair to those not in high-risk areas, but more areas are/will be "high-risk" than we might think.

Consumer advocates, homeowners, CA insurance commissioner, insurance industry are all going to scream at each other, but at the end of the day its Mother Nature with the last word.

Some info here
https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/publication-msr-pb-property-casualty.pdf
https://www.cfpnet.com/key-statistics-data/

P.S. Sorry if this upsets anyone. I've been accused of having a conflict of interest because I invest in industries we talk about. Like what I say here changes anything. I think the insurance industry looks good - has for some years, actually - with the "hard" market going to be harder for longer. Like Viagra. Oh and the interest rate outlook is also improving (going up) at short and long ends. Double hardness.

[908/930]

Originally Posted by 3rd_gear_Ted

Having a generator with a transfer switch for the pool pump is what I did. The pump motor has a ASD drive and has more HP than necessary. I cram rubber plugs into the pool piping inlets and run the motor @ full speed. I can arc a stream of 1.5" hose water 80' that has my neighbors green with envy and thinking of the same.
I put on my driving suit and helmet and look like a fool, but its my home and I'll do what i got to. You just can't count on the FD at all. I'm working on a filter air pack to hook to my helmet, smoke inhalation is my concern.
They found a guy dead with a garden hose in his hand yesterday with black nostrils.

Edit: Be tired of it in PARF.

I like the pump idea. A plan for if the fire surrounds you would be a must.

edit, With a dive tank and a weight belt could possibly hide underwater, just don't pump it all out.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

Anything to make a home more fire resistant helps. Clearing brush back 50' from structures, fire resistant roof and sidings, clear all combustibles from near the house. With a wind driven fire like this one, the heat is so intense that even a fully concrete house can burn because at 3000*F the radiant heat comes in through the glass windows and ignites the interior furnishings. They burn from the inside out.

Hadn't thought of that. So if rebuilding you also want insulated fire shutters on all windows?

Suppose you had an external fire sprinkler system, activate and it sprays water on roof and walls from an internal water and power supply. Kind of replacing the irrigation system for the landscaping you no longer have (because 50' away is in your neighbor's lot). Make a big difference or not really?

[URY914]

Originally Posted by 908/930

I like the pump idea. A plan for if the fire surrounds you would be a must.

edit, With a dive tank and a weight belt could possibly hide underwater, just don't pump it all out.

You'll need to be on a generator as the power lines will be going up in flames too.

[fintstone]

Originally Posted by jyl

Hadn't thought of that. So if rebuilding you also want insulated fire shutters on all windows?

Suppose you had an external fire sprinkler system, activate and it sprays water on roof and walls from an internal water and power supply. Kind of replacing the irrigation system for the landscaping you no longer have (because 50' away is in your neighbor's lot). Make a big difference or not really?

I would leave the outdoor irrigation system but put in much larger sprinkler heads (the rotating type) ...ones that you can quickly change to 360-degree rotation. If there is a fire, your neighbor will not mind you soaking his property/yard too and it adds a great deal of distance from your home. The ones near you house can also be turned to 360-degree rotation and soak your house and property (lawn/cleared area). A well and generator would be helpful so you would not be susceptible to power outages/have to store as much water.

[VINMAN]

Most people have zero clue about the the amount of water that os need for a fire of this magnitude.

Your average residential fire a garden hose is absolutely useless once it gets past a certain point.

.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by craigster59

When you see the size of the devastation in the Palisades it's just mind blowing...

my mind can’t comprehend it. It’s an almost indescribably beautiful area the size of Manhattan, just gone.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by 908/930

I like the pump idea. A plan for if the fire surrounds you would be a must.

edit, With a dive tank and a weight belt could possibly hide underwater, just don't pump it all out.

If you plan on hiding in your pool during one of these fires, might as well throw some carrots and potatoes in there as well.

[VINMAN]

Originally Posted by speeder

If you plan on hiding in your pool during one of these fires, might as well throw some carrots and potatoes in there as well.

Very well put Dennis!

.

[onewhippedpuppy]

Helicopter survey of Pacific Palisades. Holy God…

https://x.com/ABC7/status/1877412635617943872?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5 Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1877412635617943872%7Ctwgr% 5E44d1f5bc2da6904e1e9f837cf238be2dbdb5e017%7Ctwcon %5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.breitbart.com%2Fweather% 2F2025%2F01%2F09%2Flive-updates-day-3-of-catastrophic-los-angeles-wildfires%2F

[Eric at Pelican Parts]

Just an update: still haven't been given the order to evacuate. Smoke smell is terrible everywhere, and power is out every few blocks. Thankfully 2 air purifiers inside the house keep the smell to a minimum. Turning on the heater was a terrible decision last night.

We also have yet another fire which started a hour ago, the Creek Fire. It just sprouted below Big Tujunga Canyon, northwest of the Eaton fire.

[greglepore]

Originally Posted by VINMAN

Most people have zero clue about the the amount of water that os need for a fire of this magnitude.

Your average residential fire a garden hose is absolutely useless once it gets past a certain point.

.

Yeah. Even an inch and half with crew-it just flashes over top of you and hopefully doesn't trap you and your squad. I understand the drive of folks to protect their home, but gtfo.
The firecrews fighting this are true heroes. Working to the point of exhaustion, a couple hours off and back to the lines. People have no idea...

[onewhippedpuppy]

Originally Posted by greglepore

The firecrews fighting this are true heroes. Working to the point of exhaustion, a couple hours off and back to the lines. People have no idea...

Absolutely 1000000% agree. Hero is a term that sadly gets casually tossed around regarding people who are just performing the functions of their mundane jobs. These guys are absolute freaking badasses. I watch the videos of them at work and it scares the hell out of me. Guaranteed my job isn’t going to scare anybody….

[masraum]

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/the-historic-landmarks-razed-by-los-angeles-deadly-fires-180985797/

The raging wildfires in the Los Angeles area have so far killed five people, spreading over almost 30 square miles. The fires are the city’s most destructive to date: More than 2,000 structures have burnt down, including homes, businesses and historic buildings.

According to a Wednesday statement by California State Parks, fires that spread through Will Rogers State Historic Park engulfed the eponymous 1930s actor’s ranch house. And blazes that swept through Topanga State Park destroyed the iconic Topanga Ranch Motel—once owned by 20th-century newspaper publisher William Randolph Hearst. State park employee residences at Topanga and Will Rogers parks were also razed by these blazes belonging to the Palisades Fire, which ripped through the Pacific Palisades neighborhood, west of downtown Los Angeles.

“California State Parks mourns the loss of these treasured natural and cultural resources, and our hearts go out to everyone impacted by the devastating fires in the Los Angeles area,” says State Parks director Armando Quintero in the statement. “We are directing all available resources into the emergency response effort and working to secure and protect as much as we can at affected nearby state parks.”

Rogers was a cherished renaissance entertainer: movie star, radio personality, writer, philanthropist, aviation enthusiast and “cowboy philosopher;” the parks department referred to him as “America’s most beloved citizen.” Born in 1879 as a citizen of the Cherokee Nation, in territory that later became Oklahoma, Rogers traveled the world before purchasing land in the Palisades in the 1920s. By the time Roger died in 1935, he’d developed a sprawling ranch on his 359-acre property. The estate included a 31-room mansion, houses for guests, stables and corrals, a golf course and horse-riding trails. In 1944, Rogers’ wife, Betty, donated the property to California, and it became a historic park.

State park employees were able to evacuate the ranch’s horses and some artifacts, including pieces of art, from Rogers’ ranch. But the fires destroyed the entire building, save some stone chimneys and walls. As Cherokee Principal Chief Chuck Hoskin Jr. says in a statement, “Rogers is among our most beloved Cherokees and a legacy of our people.” He lauded the protectors of the Will Rogers ranch, who have preserved history over the years.

The Topanga Ranch Motel also possessed a long history marked by a significant American figure. Hearst built the bungalow-style building in 1929, just across the street from Topanga Beach. By that time, he owned newspapers and magazines across the country. Hearst was a political influencer and pioneer of yellow journalism—dishonest and sensationalized reporting, which some historians believe contributed to the Spanish-American War of 1898. A native of San Francisco, Hearst spent much of his life in California and developed several properties in the state—most notably, the opulent Hearst Castle in San Simeon, 300 miles up the Pacific coast from Los Angeles.

The Topanga Ranch Motel had 30 rooms, which once hosted construction workers who built the Pacific Coast Highway. In its heyday, the place provided an “inexpensive seaside holiday vacation retreat for families and writers and was a popular film and television location,” according to State Parks, which acquired the property in 2001. The department had been planning to restore 20 of the old motel’s cabins for public use.

The Palisades Fire also brushed the grounds of the Getty Villa—an art museum founded by oil tycoon J. Paul Getty in 1974 to house his massive collection of Classical and Renaissance works. The building itself has escaped damage so far.

“Fortunately, Getty had made extensive efforts to clear brush from the surrounding area as part of its fire mitigation efforts throughout the year,” as Katherine E. Fleming, president and CEO of the J. Paul Getty Trust, says in a statement. These efforts included irrigating the grounds and sealing the building to keep out smoke. “Some trees and vegetation on site have burned, but staff and the collection remain safe,” Fleming says.

Northeast of the Palisades, the Eaton Fire consumed Altadena, an unincorporated region inside Los Angeles County, up in the Verdugo Mountains near the Eaton Canyon Falls nature reserve. Among the many buildings destroyed is the Bunny Museum—“the world’s only museum about everything bunny.” As CBS News’ Dean Fioresi reports, the museum was a “beloved staple of Altadena for nearly three decades,” and possessed almost 50,000 bunny-related items.

“All of the Old Town, the iconic Altadena Old Town, is gone,” as Steve Lubanski, co-owner of the Bunny Museum, tells CBS News. “Our museum is gone. That'll hit me in a while.” Lubanksi says he and his wife spent nearly 40 years building their collection. They were only able to save their pets and a few items.

As of Thursday afternoon, first responders have made gains battling the Sunset Fire, which forced residents of the Hollywood Hills to evacuate, per the Los Angeles Times. Extreme wind speeds have contributed to the fires’ spreading. As Los Angeles Fire Department Chief Kristin Crowley said at a Wednesday press conference, “We are absolutely not out of danger yet.”

[VINMAN]

Originally Posted by greglepore

Yeah. Even an inch and half with crew-it just flashes over top of you and hopefully doesn't trap you and your squad. I understand the drive of folks to protect their home, but gtfo.

I can't even begin to tell you how many fires I've pulled up on over the years, where the home was already a loss because the homeowner attempted to put it out themselves and hesitated calling us.

.

[Sooner or later]

Be safe, Eric.

[Baz]

Originally Posted by Eric at Pelican Parts

Just an update: still haven't been given the order to evacuate. Smoke smell is terrible everywhere, and power is out every few blocks. Thankfully 2 air purifiers inside the house keep the smell to a minimum. Turning on the heater was a terrible decision last night.

We also have yet another fire which started a hour ago, the Creek Fire. It just sprouted below Big Tujunga Canyon, northwest of the Eaton fire.

Dang......fingers & toes crossed and prayers sent for you and yours, Eric!

[wildthing]

Hoping for the best outcome for all given the circumstances. I have friends who work at the Getty Trust, friends who are on evac alert, friends who live there but are out of the country and fear coming back to nothing, friends who haven't responded to my "are you safe" text...