Amnesty bill may be dead

[MRM]

Did any of you seriously believe any of the immigration reform bills were anything but shams that had no chance of passing? Anyone getting frothed up supporting or opposing any immigration bill has been had. The whole thing was a put up.

The people behind the bill were pushing it as a wedge issue for their own agenda with no intention of changing any laws. The people opposed to it were letting it get as far as it did so they could use it as a wedge issue for their own agenda. Bush and his ilk wanted to throw a sop to the left with no intention of letting it become law. The only question was how the sponsors were going to allow the bill to be derailed while acting like they were doing everything possible to pass the bill.

This is the legislative equivalent to the movie The Hustler where the real money is made by people who can make it look like they're trying to sink the shot when all they are trying to do is come as close to the pocket as possible without getting it in.

[Rick Lee]

I don't agree with that. I think this bill made some pretty strange bedfellows. It's not every day you get Jon Kyl and Mitch McConnell, conservative stalwarts, agreeing with Ted kennedy and completely ignoring their constituents.

[MRM]

That proves my point. They had no intent of letting anything getting close to law. The only question was how they were going to allow the bill to go off the tracks without looking like they did it on purpose.

[speeder]

Interesting theory. I'm not a big conspiracy guy; not because I think that people are above that sort of thing, but it requires a level of competence and cooperation that just does not exist in the world.

[lendaddy]

Originally posted by techweenie
Just checking.

That "simplifed proposal" was actually Ronald Reagan's amnesty law, with only the dates changed.

I find it amusing that the 'little tin god' of the right -- RR -- was on the wrong side (according to current thinking) of immigration, spending and dealing with terrorist states, but is still the standard of comparison for conservative presidential candidates.

I've never heard anyone defend Reagan's amnesty plan. It's always been a stain on his record.

[Jim727]

Originally posted by MRM
Did any of you seriously believe any of the immigration reform bills were anything but shams that had no chance of passing? Anyone getting frothed up supporting or opposing any immigration bill has been had. The whole thing was a put up.

The people behind the bill were pushing it as a wedge issue for their own agenda with no intention of changing any laws. The people opposed to it were letting it get as far as it did so they could use it as a wedge issue for their own agenda. Bush and his ilk wanted to throw a sop to the left with no intention of letting it become law. The only question was how the sponsors were going to allow the bill to be derailed while acting like they were doing everything possible to pass the bill.

This is the legislative equivalent to the movie The Hustler where the real money is made by people who can make it look like they're trying to sink the shot when all they are trying to do is come as close to the pocket as possible without getting it in.

Although I think the republicrats are all jackals, in this case I think the proposal was genuine - and a gamble for the millions of potential votes at stake. The democrat position was obvious, but the republican position required that the proposal get rammed through before any serious opposition could gel. The risk the republicans had was the potential to divide the voter base from the money base (those profiting from hiring illegals), and no manager of any competence would face that risk for a bill designed to go down in defeat. They were holding a wedge that would more divide their party than republicans against democrats.

What they got was opposition with faster growth and more intensity than expected. The wedge went between the money and the votes - not between the republicans and democrats. It also changed the character of the republican presidential race and has placed republican strategy in a real sticky place, I think.

[Jim727]

Originally posted by techweenie
Just checking.

That "simplifed proposal" was actually Ronald Reagan's amnesty law, with only the dates changed.

I find it amusing that the 'little tin god' of the right -- RR -- was on the wrong side (according to current thinking) of immigration, spending and dealing with terrorist states, but is still the standard of comparison for conservative presidential candidates.

It's also an interesting blueprint for failure. Amnesty for 2 million got us what? Depending on estimates, it encouraged anywhere from 12 million to 18 million more to enter illegally. Excellent lesson from history.

[MRM]

It wasn't so much a conspiracy to raise and then derail an immigration bill as it was the typical political theater on a larger than usual scale. A bill takes a lot of work and prep to get it signed into law. It's an old trick to propose a law that you don't really want to go into effect and then let it die because you don't push it hard enough. You look good because you pushed the issue and you get to complain about a do-nothing Congress or politics as usual. No one sees the effort you didn't put into getting the bill passed.

That's what the strange bedfellows did here. It was in their interest to push the bill but not in their interest to push hard enough for it to go into law. Hence the Hustler analogy of looking like you were trying to sink the ball.

[Rick Lee]

I don't think anyone came out looking good here. The Republican senators who supported this really shot themselves in the feet and I hope all of them get primary challenges now. The RNC chair should do his party a favor and quit now, since their donations have dried up and he was one of the bills supporters too. Piss on them.