Do any of you time the stock market?

[recycled sixtie]

And sell your stocks when you think its high has been reached?

Or do you just buy and hold for a long time?

I bought Barrons Magazine the other day and it is interesting to note the various experts' opinions on where the market is going. I have been tending towards mutual funds as they seem to do better than me picking/choosing stocks and timing.

Buying the indices is a lot cheaper but somehow I like a company name that I can trust such as Fidelity.

Your thoughts overall?

[HardDrive]

I used to day trade. I did reasonably well with it, but you end up hunched in front of multiple computer screens like golem most of the day.

Mostly in funds at this point. I 'play' with about 10% of my $, and I only make changes year to year. I don't really follow the market.

[Seahawk]

I have been in the "market" in some fashion for over 40 years...remember the old financial pages in the paper?

There have been so many changes over the years that I stay mostly in funds and other vehicles (401's, etc.) and some stuff for the kids. I don't actively manage anything at this point, I'm too far behind the practical drivers for sound investment so I rely on a professional.

Tax posture is very important and drives investment as well.

I think I have told this story here before, but in the '80's I actively traded stocks, which I very much enjoyed and did well. Nothing spectacular, my hero in those days was Andrew Tobias who preached slow and steady. His software program, Managing Your Money, would become a key component in my money management.

I was single and stationed at NAS North Island in San Diego. I was headed out for my second long cruise (six month deployment) and decided to move all my money from stocks into a CD...I just didn't want the hassle of trying to mange a portfolio from afar and I had had a poor experience with a mutual fund provider.

Simple is good from a Frigate in the Persian Gulf.

So on Monday, October 19, 1987 just after a port visit to Australia, we are underway headed home. Black Monday occurs and the markets crashed.

Better lucky than good

[lukeh]

Originally Posted by recycled sixtie

I have been tending towards mutual funds as they seem to do better than me picking/choosing stocks and timing.

I figured that out decades ago.

What are the odds I'm going to pick stocks better than a team of PHDs and MBAs that get paid to watch companies and the market all day long? Over the long run I figure it's close to zero. I invest in managed funds that have a long term track record of beating the index's over the long haul and have been very happy with how it has worked out.

[biosurfer1]

Yep, I use NH-NL...mechanical investing has been very good to me. And also MJNA but that was a stupid penny stock bet that has paid off well but could obviously turn around at any second

[biosurfer1]

Actually I'd put the odds at 50/50. While I believe you wouldn't be good at picking stocks over the long term, past performance shows they aren't usually any better

Originally Posted by lukeh

I figured that out decades ago.

What are the odds I'm going to pick stocks better than a team of PHDs and MBAs that get paid to watch companies and the market all day long? Over the long run I figure it's close to zero. I invest in managed funds that have a long term track record of beating the index's over the long haul and have been very happy with how it has worked out.

[masraum]

I'm a long term kind of guy. The guy that I read for investing info has talked about market timing. His version of market timing is not really like day trading. It's based upon math and time.

Paul Merriman has a regular column at MarketWatch - Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News and his own site Paul Merriman. I think he only has 10% of his portfolio using market timing and the rest is buy and hold.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by recycled sixtie

And sell your stocks when you think its high has been reached?

Or do you just buy and hold for a long time?

I bought Barrons Magazine the other day and it is interesting to note the various experts' opinions on where the market is going. I have been tending towards mutual funds as they seem to do better than me picking/choosing stocks and timing.

Buying the indices is a lot cheaper but somehow I like a company name that I can trust such as Fidelity.

Your thoughts overall?

I used to time the market on single stocks allot. I was really good at it when the market kept going the way I wanted it to.

The big boys control and manipulate the market day to day. IMO unless you can read their minds, you're better off forgetting about timing and getting in good for the long haul.



Here's a fidelity fund I've done very well with over the past several years:

Westwood SMidCap Fund Institutional Class

Symbol: WHGMX

[boba]

Like Paul I have been in the market for over 40 years. During that time I have picked stocks, been in 401K's, mutual funds, managed portfolios, bond ladders, bond funds, commodities, and hedge funds. While managed funds and mutual funds can be a way to invest where one does not feel the need to watch it daily. But you still need to pay attention to what you are in. All funds have a set of parameters within which they invest, you need to know what those are. As the economy goes through its cycles those funds may be in the sweet spot or on the outs. You need to be ready to move in and out of these funds as these changes take place. So a small cap growth fund will not perform well when the market is favoring large cap consumer. My point is that however you choose to invest you need to take ownership of your investing decisions. You also need to keep track of your funds personnel, if a star has made a fund successful and then leaves for another fund this is not announced and now you no longer have the star performer.
I no longer invest in mutual funds, they will make end of period transactions to dress up their performance. These can have adverse tax consequences that you have no time to compensate for. They look good, you take a tax hit, don't need that.

[dan88911]

I have heard it said for the average investor getting out is easy.
Figuring out when to get back in is the hard part.
I got a diversified portfolio of funds. And some solid individual stocks mostly dividend payers.
I like to take profits and reallocated when necessary.
I read a lot and had some help along the way.

[lukeh]

Originally Posted by biosurfer1

While I believe you wouldn't be good at picking stocks over the long term, past performance shows they aren't usually any better

You lost me. Are you saying past performance shows mutual funds aren't good at picking stocks over the long haul? Based on what?

[PushingMyLuck]

Originally Posted by lukeh

What are the odds I'm going to pick stocks better than a team of PHDs and MBAs that get paid to watch companies and the market all day long?

Much MUCH higher than you think.

[FrankyV]

I prefer to be a contrarian- buy or hold a stock or the whole market when everyone else is selling and sell when everyone else is buying. It has worked out pretty well in the current cycle, which started in mid to late 2007, and now I am beginning to liquidate certain positions that are looking overvalued. Also, when a stock doubles in value and I still want to own it, I liquidate half (my original investment amount). That way if it goes back down, I have locked in the gain and protected myself from a subsequent drop in the stock.

[boba]

As I pointed out each fund has a set of guidelines which determine what they can buy. As the economy goes thru its cycles some segments do better than others. There are sites which track the performance of all funds against an index or multipal indexes. Some outperform and others underperform. What this means is that an investor needs to do their due diligence when picking a fund, not much different than picking a stock. Now with a fund you are spreading your risk across several equities. This mitigates the chance you will match the best performance in the sector or the worst. Investing in indexes or iShares does much the same as a fund without the fees or load.

[boba]

As far as market timing goes, some claim to be able to make predictions, but I do not have very much confidence in them. I will set stop loss points on stocks I buy. I will also sell some of a stock if it runs up dramatically to recoup original principle. I can then invest that in something else. When there is a correction I will add to positions I have confidence in or buy something new that has been over sold. I have missed crashes in the past but things drop so fast sometimes all you can do is ride it out. If you had solid picks they will recover with the market. If you choose funds you need to do some of the same.

[RWebb]

a mutual fund will indeed 'spread the risk,' but over scores of individual stocks - often hundreds

some funds track major indices or attempt to track the entire market; sector funds attempt to track entire sectors - and Fidelity has some good ones

none of the above has anything to do really with market timing, which any professor of finance that studies the concept will tell you is a bad idea

Vanguard has even lower expenses than Fidelity and has numerous good funds, HealthCare is one that has a superb record and will likely do well this year

search up the numerous threads already on here for more - use the terms Fidelity & Vanguard

It is early in the year, but nonetheless, I am able to make one prediction for 2014 with a high degree of confidence: One-half of all stocks will do worse than the market overall.

[VincentVega]

My market timing is a change to asset allocation. I thought things were a little frothy late this fall so I sold some of the stuff that was up 25%+ ytd. A few years ago I bought the dips of the market correction. Dead simple, just trying to be logical about my $$.

Like most I've mostly moved from stocks but still dabble and usually end up a little. I think long term for most of the $$ so I like the idea of rotating into down sectors and taking profits when they are plentiful. Hogs get slaughtered right?

[Cajundaddy]

The only time I ever lost money was timing the market in actively traded stocks. Most of my stock market play is in IRAs and Vanguard index funds because the costs are so low. I agree with Buffet that it is better to buy stock like you would buy a farm. Choose good value and a business that will be around for a while gaining value instead of attempting to do a quick flip for a big score. A stock with effective management will produce over a many years at very low risk.

Right now I have about 30% of my investments in index funds, 30% in real estate, 30% in business capital, and 10% cash. This was a good year for stocks.

[Shuie]

I'd rather bet on some sport that I know absolutely nothing about. Like basketball.

[biosurfer1]

No, the reply was to the so called "pro's" however even mutual funds are the same way. For every fund that has done well over the past 1,5,10 years, etc. It's just as easy to find those that have not.

Originally Posted by lukeh

You lost me. Are you saying past performance shows mutual funds aren't good at picking stocks over the long haul? Based on what?