Personal observations of the economy

[Ayles]

Observations from Seattle are that its great! Look outiside of my office downtown and see a dozen towers going up, gas is cheaper than its been in a long time, real estate has been on fire for the better part of two years, bidding wars are common, investments are growing and there are tons of jobs.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by zelrik911

I worry that the US could gradually morph into another UK (England) where royalty and a few lords-of- the-realm own most everything and everybody else just works to sustain their lifestyles.

That's a valid concern. The rich have been getting richer and working folks working harder to stay even for about 30 years here. It seems to have accelerated in the past decade. It causes me concern, also.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Health care costs seem to be kicking people's asses too as a direct result of the "affordable" (for a few) care act.

[jcommin]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

That's a valid concern. The rich have been getting richer and working folks working harder to stay even for about 30 years here. It seems to have accelerated in the past decade. It causes me concern, also.

I agree - somewhat. If I go to a high restaurant, there filled. No recession there! They were filled several years ago too. The have/have not gap will grow.

[Scuba Steve]

My perspective is from someone in manufacturing in Charleston, SC. We have no kids so I am unaware of what they run these days.

Food: people have already touched on it numerous times, but it seems as though both groceries and eating out have increased much faster than anything else. The crap food however (Banquet TV dinners for example) seem stationary with a lot of marketing for the flavor of the month. Atkins/organic/lactose/gluten free...

We replaced the wife's car twice last year and it seems like new car prices are spiking thanks to insane financing terms, but that they depreciate just as fast as ever so we bought used. No apparent discounts for cash at dealers since everyone can get financing somehow.

Housing in the area is bubbling again. Flippers and shoddy contractors have come back out of the woodwork and there are long queues for starting major projects.

What troubles me is that a lot of people at work seem to think things will be on the up and up indefinitely. When the time comes someday, it will be easy to tell who will have to go because they are nowhere near as productive or efficient as the others. It will be a rude awakening. These are not younger people either.

The job market remains tough for the wife's field (IT). She would really like to move beyond being an hourly employee but her options seem very limited. I'm still able to cover her under my insurance for not too much additional cost but we're concerned about how much longer that will last. We looked into additional education but...

The cost of education seems to have increased faster than any single other factor. The ROI for a (second) degree appeared terrible but there's an endless queue of people lined up for it because they're approved for an insane amount of debt.

Within our family we're doing quite well but we are building towards our long term strategy of being able to survive if a major job loss or something else comes our way. It seems that overall things are not going well enough for enough people for this to be a real economic recovery.

[cairns]

Health care, insurance, food much more expensive. I live in MD where taxes, fees, fines general cost of living have gone up dramatically. The state even went Republican and this is a VERY blue state. Crossing the bay bridge now $6. Used to be $2. Lots of companies relocating to Virginia or moving there from other states. Our company went from $4B to $2B. thousands of layoffs, my boss, my boss's boss and lots of colleagues unemployed or "retired". HQ now in VA. So far I've been lucky. Very lucky in fact.

First world complaint- I simply can't afford to do DE's the way I used to. Our club lost the coveted mid-Ohio slot due to lack of attendance. Gas is high but gas at the track is more outrageous than ever.

[recycled sixtie]

There are some really good observations on this thread. Here is my take.

A lot depends where you live. In oil country here used houses sell within 6 weeks generally. Relatively low unemployment here.

New car sales I believe are up. One set of neighbors has bought 2 new cars and one off lease in the last 2 months.

Restaurants look busy. Costco always looks busy.

What is down? I recently tried to sell some gold rings and antiques. I got low offers on gold rings which were 9 and 10 carat respectively. Antiques? Apparently baby boomers are getting rid of antiques as they are downsizing and the younger generation does not want old stuff.

Stock market is surprisingly buoyant but I am in for the long haul anyway.
Cheers, Guy

[Ferraripete]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

Health care costs seem to be kicking people's asses too as a direct result of the "affordable" (for a few) care act.

you think your healthcare would have not gone up otherwise? would your deductible be more reasonable?

[Jim Richards]

Healthcare costs have been going up fast since I've been in the workforce (1970s).

College tuition costs have been skyrocketing at least as long as my son was approaching college age, probably longer.

[cairns]

you think your healthcare would have not gone up otherwise? would your deductible be more reasonable?

Let's face it health care costs (meaning insurance) have gone up dramatically since the AHA was enacted. And having a health insurance company tell a doctor what he or she can prescribe would have been unthinkable even a few years ago. Just try getting a non generic prescription. I went from UHC platinum to bronze- and I'm paying more for it- with higher deductibles and a lot more restrictions- since last year. The platinum price doubled.

I should have bought stock in Wellpoint.

[jyl]

Actually, total health insurance costs have not gone up as much as you perceive (although they are rising faster than inflation).

What is going up fast is YOUR portion of the cost.

Employers are shifting costs to employees, through higher employee share of premiums and (especially) through high deductibles.

This has nothing to do with the ACA. It is just another way that, overall, business (companies) are gaining ground while labor (employees) are not. In addition to holding wages stagnant for years, companies are saving money on benefits like healthcare insurance.

[techweenie]

Originally Posted by cairns

Let's face it health care costs (meaning insurance) have gone up dramatically since the AHA was enacted. And having a health insurance company tell a doctor what he or she can prescribe would have been unthinkable even a few years ago. Just try getting a non generic prescription. I went from UHC platinum to bronze- and I'm paying more for it- since last year. The platinum price doubled.

Actually, the average rate of increase over the past 12 years was cut by 2/3 last year. Health care costs were rising 12-15% a year in the US. Now 5. But the distribution of the increases is not consistent. The true savings will be known years from now as people get early diagnosis and treatment that is proven to be 11-12% of the cost of a deferred diagnosis in many diseases.

Where minimum wage 'floors' have been raised, local economies have done noticeably better. But where wages are not supported, there are too many instances of corporations pushing employees to Federal assistance to supplement low wages/reduced working hours. Someone calculated that the Federal subsidy for a typical Walmart is about $1 million/yr.

[techweenie]

I'll add that in 2008, economists were saying that when the worst recession in modern times ended - and that end was not in sight yet - that it was going to be a "jobless recovery." And many, if not most economists also predicted a "double dip" recession. The former is more or less true, with only 10 million jobs added since the recession ended in 7/09. That is a low recovery rate. And too many people are back in the work force at lower paying jobs.

[RF5BPilot]

There has been a shift in how (many) companies view employees. Granted, this has gone in waves before, but this has stuck since 2008.

Since 1990, I've given organizations an alternative to traditional (snapshot) employee surveys. I use a diagnostic process that can show the underlying causes of why people quit or stay, the factors that affect productivity, the qualities of the best leadership styles for your organization, etc. I've turned this into more than just a report, but a full action process so that this information gets used.

Since 2008, for the most part, the companies I encounter feel the employees are lucky to have a job at all. There are many more applicants than jobs and alternatives are so slim, that management has a much freer hand in how they treat employees because it doesn't seem to have the consequences that it did before when there were more jobs available.

So, my work has tended to wither as most organizations have migrated to the shortest, cheapest surveys (if they continued employee surveys at all) that tend to stress comparative data (which is so inaccurate that you're probably better off not seeing it). Mostly just to say they did a survey rather than implementing a systems improvement process.

Disappointing.

I'm in the process of moving on to another way to make a living as I just have no interest in junk survey work.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by cairns

And having a health insurance company tell a doctor what he or she can prescribe would have been unthinkable even a few years ago. Just try getting a non generic prescription.

Insurance companies have been telling doctors how to practice medicine for 20 years or more. In 2006 my wife was in a hospital 2 hours away. After 2 days in the doctor said she needed to stay another day. I left for home thinking everything was set up. But the insurance co. said "Nope." They threw her out of the hospital while I was on my way home for the day. Didn't even call me to see if I would pay cash. She called from a restaurant to have me come and get her. Turned out the doctor knew more than the insurance co. She was back in a different hospital within the week.
My insurance co. fought me over Crestor vs generic for months in 2008. I had to live in pain for months while my doc tried different statins to find a cheap replacement for the one that we knew worked.

[WolfeMacleod]

Originally Posted by Don Ro

I've noticed the cost of groceries rising markedly over the past 5 - 6 yrs.
I bought a slab of Halibut recently at Costco - $37.
Anyone notice the increase in the cost of beef?

That's because cows are going extinct, donchaknow?


The bread that used to cost 99 cents is now $3.
The 99 cent gallon of milk is now $3.50 or $4.
Ground beef $6/pound. or more.

[techweenie]

Not sure when milk was $0.99...

[pavulon]

Anonymous surveys which require employees to disclose age, gender and department in which they work, contractors/consultants brought in to help devise and deliver bad news while senior management side-steps accountability, ascribing middle management accountability for senior management employee satisfaction, consumer satisfaction surveys which nobody can figure out, budget goal posts mounted on wheels...on and on it goes. Bottom Line Mentality runs rampant and yet it's a mystery that morale and good faith stinks.

Originally Posted by RF5BPilot

There has been a shift in how (many) companies view employees. Granted, this has gone in waves before, but this has stuck since 2008.

Since 1990, I've given organizations an alternative to traditional (snapshot) employee surveys. I use a diagnostic process that can show the underlying causes of why people quit or stay, the factors that affect productivity, the qualities of the best leadership styles for your organization, etc. I've turned this into more than just a report, but a full action process so that this information gets used.

Since 2008, for the most part, the companies I encounter feel the employees are lucky to have a job at all. There are many more applicants than jobs and alternatives are so slim, that management has a much freer hand in how they treat employees because it doesn't seem to have the consequences that it did before when there were more jobs available.

So, my work has tended to wither as most organizations have migrated to the shortest, cheapest surveys (if they continued employee surveys at all) that tend to stress comparative data (which is so inaccurate that you're probably better off not seeing it). Mostly just to say they did a survey rather than implementing a systems improvement process.

Disappointing.

I'm in the process of moving on to another way to make a living as I just have no interest in junk survey work.

[Tilikum Turbo]

Originally Posted by sugarwood

Like, they're selling a lot or a little ?

Business is way down...which is a indicator real disposable income is just not there.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by sugarwood

Like, they're selling a lot or a little ?

The most prestgious jewelery store in the world is not selling the 3M USD pieces very often anymore. In other words the WHALES ain't buying...