low oil prices effecting you?

[71scgc]

It's hurting me now, and will continue to.
It's my chief source of income. If it continues, my immediate future may need a rethink.
Low pump prices are nice. I don't get coupons from the oil co.s when the price is high.
Drilling activity will slack off if it continues.
OTOH...
Low oil prices really hurt OPEC. If prices stay down, and some OPEC members refuse to cut production, it could spell the end of the cartel. All it would take is Saudi to bail.
This would be one of the greatest things that could happen in modern history, as they have been the biggest manipulators of price in most of our memories.
You might actually see the true price of oil for the first time in forever.
It would be akin to pricing the USSR out of the cold war.

None of this is guaranteed. It's just an idea I've had kickin' around in my head lately...

Carter

[Scuba Steve]

We are completely unaffected, both in terms of our jobs and what we pay for gas. I have the long commute in the family at about 9 miles.

[sammyg2]

So far, no complaints.

Today the wholesale padd 5 price for CARB unleaded regular is $1.42
The price of gas has been falling like a rock, fortunately for refiners the price if crude has been falling slightly faster and is a leading indicator, so the refining margins had been useasonably good. Right up until last week.
Gas is a give-away right now, loosing money on every gallon. Jet and diesel remain relatively strong.

I'll be watching closely to see how and when it settles and when it starts it's way back up.

Instability is supposed to be good for the industry but I don't like it.
Saudi won't be able to afford keeping the price down for long.
I figure OPEC will collapse next fall.

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by nynor

just for frame of reference, how much has a barrel of crude dropped? how has this driven prices at the pump? what is driving the price drop, both for barrels and at the pump?

The most common crude benchmark we use in the US is west texas Intermediate.

WTI has been relatively stable averaging about $105 for a couple years. it's about HALF that now.

In London they use brent crude as a benchmark which was about $15 higher than WTI a year ago, and is now within a dollar or two of it.

Last year we were selling unleaded regular wholesale for $2.70, now it's $1.42
Oil has fallen slightly more than gas but gas is catching up.

Diesel and jet fuel have fallen a little but nowhere near as much.

[motion]

Isn't this a big deal for people in the NE with $1,000 monthly oil heating bills?

[Rinty]

Originally Posted by Instrument 41

Making me nervous. Louisiana's budget is tied to oil.

21% of Alberta's revenue is derived from energy royalties, so it will have a huge impact here, and on the other provinces that receive transfer payments from Alberta (via the federal government).

[beepbeep]

For me it's more of "yawn"...E85 went down marginally from 10.05 to 9.08. A friend who works on a Norwegian oil rig is feeling it though. Lot's of people on leave...

[Brando]

It cost me $10.00 to fill the bike today instead of $13.00. I also averaged 53.6 mpg. That's better than my previous record of 49.5mpg last summer.

If only gasoline could be stored without breaking down...

[EarlyPorsche]

Has anyone thought of buying into some sort of stock/fund/future related to crude or crude industries? I've been thinking of finding a fund that would track crude. I can't imagine crude will get much lower and if anything I'm guessing we'll see $80+ barrels again soon. Of course if I am wrong and we see $40 barrels I'll be out a lot of money! Still can't decide if its worth investing (heck I haven't even searched to find what fund would track crude or the like haha).

[Rickysa]

selfishly loving it...I get to go fishing again

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by EarlyPorsche

Has anyone thought of buying into some sort of stock/fund/future related to crude or crude industries? I've been thinking of finding a fund that would track crude. I can't imagine crude will get much lower and if anything I'm guessing we'll see $80+ barrels again soon. Of course if I am wrong and we see $40 barrels I'll be out a lot of money! Still can't decide if its worth investing (heck I haven't even searched to find what fund would track crude or the like haha).

I played the crude market several years ago when it hit $145 bbl and made some good bank.
Haven't jumped on the band wagon this time but may ride it back up.

How to Trade Crude Oil Futures | Commodity HQ

[KNS]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

I figure OPEC will collapse next fall.

Wow, 71scgc mentioned this as well. Is this a real possibility?
I wonder how Saudi Arabia will behave and price their oil without OPEC?

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by KNS

Wow, 71scgc mentioned this as well. Is this a real possibility?
I wonder how Saudi Arabia will behave and price their oil without OPEC?

OPEC is nothing more than a group of countries that get together and agree to production quotas (dictated by saudi) to control the supply and therefore artificially support the price of crude.

They all cheat a little bit, and saudi cheats the most.
it's worked for them so far.

But if they are used to maknig $100/bbl and they all the sudden have to run their gubmint on $50/bbl, they can't do that for very long.
They'll panic and start over-supplying. Once that happens it'll fall like a house of cards.

The only way I can see of that NOT happening is if the price rebounds and stabilizes at between $70 and $80.

Having OPEC crumble would be a good thing for the most part, but remember our neighbor to the south is an OPECKER and gets a whole lot of their money from oil. PEMEX is a gubmint run oil company and is the largest company in me-he-ko. They are the 6th largest oil producer on the planet.

If ME-HE-CO ran out of oil money it could get real ugly. Either we'd have to wipe their butts and pay their bills (even more than we (I) already have to) or the drug cartels could go for the juglar at first sign of weakness.

Then we'd have to go in there and fight a gorrilla war that would make shooting sheet heads in the ME look like a carnival game.
Cuba Could get involved with the help of The soviets, and it'd be WOLVERINES!




Yes that is worst case scenario but we doan wanna see that.







.

[sammyg2]

PEMEX:

The state-owned company pays out over 60% of its revenue in royalties and taxes, and those funds pay for 40% of the federal government's budget.

40% of the budget. If the price of crude gets cut in half but the cost of producing it doesn't change, then the actual net profits fron oil could easily get cut by 3/4.

That would mean that 40% of mexico's total revenues could get knocked down to 10%.

Can you imagine what would happen to the USA if within a matter of a couple months our total goverment revenue (income) fell by 30%?

It would make the great depression look like a little blip on the radar.

[jwasbury]

Originally Posted by motion

Isn't this a big deal for people in the NE with $1,000 monthly oil heating bills?

^yup, surprised this wasn't mentioned more often so far - I suppose responders are either in the "what's this winter you speak of" camp, or they have natural gas heat which is much cheaper.

My country home in PA is in a rural area, so no gas service. Oil or propane, and propane isn't cheaper per BTU. I replaced a 30 year old boiler this fall, so I suppose the lower prices makes my pay-back timeline a little longer. I choose not to think of it this way - I prefer to think of it as I am saving twice...using less oil, and paying less per unit.

I think I spent between 3k or so on heating oil later year, and we don't keep the place at comfortable temperature during the week when we're not there.

[Brando]

When oil prices were higher, was electric for heat viable?

Originally Posted by jwasbury

^yup, surprised this wasn't mentioned more often so far - I suppose responders are either in the "what's this winter you speak of" camp, or they have natural gas heat which is much cheaper.

My country home in PA is in a rural area, so no gas service. Oil or propane, and propane isn't cheaper per BTU. I replaced a 30 year old boiler this fall, so I suppose the lower prices makes my pay-back timeline a little longer. I choose not to think of it this way - I prefer to think of it as I am saving twice...using less oil, and paying less per unit.

I think I spent between 3k or so on heating oil later year, and we don't keep the place at comfortable temperature during the week when we're not there.

[BRPORSCHE]

I am totally screwed.

Royally.

[Gogar]

Originally Posted by BRPORSCHE

I am totally screwed.

Royally.

Wait 18 months and you'll be laughing your ass off.

[BRPORSCHE]

Originally Posted by Gogar

Wait 18 months and you'll be laughing your ass off.

I sure hope so. You know that company you just picked some options on? Hopefully they weather this without shedding too much headcount!

[sammyg2]

Originally Posted by motion

Isn't this a big deal for people in the NE with $1,000 monthly oil heating bills?

Diesel, jet and heating oil haven't fallen at the same pace as gasoline.

Residential heating oil is less expensive than last year but still not cheap. Maybe in a couple months it'll get down there to where it used to be considered economical.