North Korea And Their Launch Codes

[Rick Lee]

Originally Posted by p911dad

Interesting chatter on the Defconwarning site about the NK's Guam missile test. These guys theorize that if he actually does launch 4 ICBMs toward Guam with splashdown near Guam, he is testing our ability to knock down 4 at once toward the same target. If we get 3 but one gets through, it will be a success for NK, as it proves we can't reliably get that many at once on 1 target. FWIW.

We would know their trajectories as soon as they left the ground and would not shoot down any that were already going to land in the water either by accident or design. That would keep NK guessing, but still be a casus belli for us.

[Rick Lee]

Originally Posted by aap1966

The Japanese military were determined to fight on despite losing 2 cities to nukes and the credible threat of "a rain of ruin from the air, the like of which has never been seen on this earth".

But they didn't know what hit them or if it could happen again or how many more times. And I don't think we had much inventory to keep hitting them like that at that time.

Everyone knows a single US sub off the coast of NK could lay waste to much of the country within minutes, and there'd be plenty more where that came from, if necessary. Then again, I wonder how Kim takes bad news from his advisors or how much he knows about the outside world, having been schooled in Switzerland, but not having traveled much other than that.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

I've wondered that as well. It's quite possible that Kim actually believes the B.S. his generals are shoveling him in order to keep from being shot to pieces by an AA gun or torn to pieces by dogs (two of KJU's favorite methods of dispatching individuals with whom he's displeased). It'd be tragic if so many people had to die simply because the leader of one of the combatants was completely ignorant.

It's a variation on the old axiom, "life is hard, but it's a lot harder if you're stupid".

I think KJU really needs to educate himself about what his real chances are against the U.S. military (to say nothing of S.K., Japan and whomever else might rally to the cause). It'd be "suicide by cop", just on a lot bigger scale and with a lot of collateral damage.

[GH85Carrera]

Any one of those subs have 200 nuclear missiles and each one is way more powerful than what we dropped on Japan in WW2. Just one sub could make NK a vast wasteland. And then we have the other surface ships with their arsenal. I just wonder how many nukes our aircraft carriers have at the ready.

Even without the nuclear option we could take down NK.

[gshase]

I would bet N.K. firing a missile would actually be "A Test Fire" as with the USAF/Navy systems being proven effective.

[flipper35]

I think the Ohio class have 22 or 24 missiles that are nukes and they can carry non-nuke Tomahawks.

THAAD has not been proven to be "effective" just yet so if NK sends 4 "test" missiles we, in all likelihood, would not hit them all.

That said, KJU has been notorious about seeing how far he can cross the line and get away with it. One of these days he is going to assume a permanent horizontal position possibly from one of his own. The sooner the better. The citizens of NK don't deserve the same fate as KJU.

[KNS]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

Everyone knows a single US sub off the coast of NK could lay waste to much of the country within minutes, and there'd be plenty more where that came from, if necessary. Then again, I wonder how Kim takes bad news from his advisors or how much he knows about the outside world, having been schooled in Switzerland, but not having traveled much other than that.

You can't rain down nukes on NK as easy as that. Much of NKs military is massed along the border and Seoul, SK is only 30 miles from the border. There are 10 million civilians living in Seoul. SK will bear the brunt because if chit hits the fan artillery and NK troops will flood across the boarder and head south.

[rick-l]

Originally Posted by GH85Carrera

Even without the nuclear option we could take down NK.

take out the air defense and a couple thousand precision guided Mark 84's would implement regime change real quick but it wouldn't stop a few artillery shells being lobed into the south.

[Rick Lee]

I didn't say there wouldn't be collateral damage, but we certainly have the capability to hit very many targets inside NK at the same time with almost no warning to them. First priority would be any missile sites and their artillery on the DMZ.

[Chocaholic]

And Un would be 2 miles below surrounded by concrete and comfort women.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by GH85Carrera

They can use an IMU and computers to get pretty darn close even without GPS or the Russian system Glonass.

https://www.quora.com/How-many-countries-have-their-own-GPS-system

There are other regional GPS like systems.

We used this system for YEARS.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D37D

The issue is that the earth is not consistent. Gravity varies as the density varies. The makes guidance inaccurate. For big bombs, it doesn't matter. but we were trying to hit nuclear missile sites. A lot of the missions over the USSR were to map the gravimetric anomalies.

They may have better electronics, but they will not be accurate. They the biggest bombs they have are 20kt.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

But they didn't know what hit them or if it could happen again or how many more times. And I don't think we had much inventory to keep hitting them like that at that time.

They knew EXACTLY what hit them. Japan, Soviet Union, England (independently) Germany were ALL working on nuclear weapons.

[red-beard]

Originally Posted by Rick Lee

I didn't say there wouldn't be collateral damage, but we certainly have the capability to hit very many targets inside NK at the same time with almost no warning to them. First priority would be any missile sites and their artillery on the DMZ.

Click below to go straight to the best part

https://youtu.be/vuP6KbIsNK4?t=2m13s

[red-beard]

I will say this, based on recent reading on our nuclear capabilities in the 1960's, we seriously over estimated the USSR's missile capability. I wonder if we are over estimating KJU.

[widebody911]

What's sad is Kim Jong Il and Trump had so much in common...

https://www.thestar.com/sports/golf/2011/12/19/kim_jongil_once_carded_38under_par_at_pyongyang_go lf_course.html

According to reports, Kim, who was 52 at the time, carded no worse than a birdie on any hole at the country’s only golf club. He also had five holes-in-one in the round, which was witnessed by 17 armed bodyguards.

[svandamme]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

Americans tend to judge everything using American standards of freedom, education, culture, etc.

Never understood why.

fixed it for you

[svandamme]

Originally Posted by flipper35

I would imagine they use INS instead of GPS, but if they did use GPS then the military would just "alter" the coordinates and not shut the system down.

It does not work like that. It works on time.
GPS works on the calculation of time difference between various known sources at known locations.

Simplified : if you know A is london, B is NYC and C is Paris
And you know they all have a Clock that is in sync.

You can calculate location by triangulation of the distance. The distance will be known because they all pulse at the same time, and the pulses arrive on your location at different times. the Pulse will contain information of the source that sent it.
Such as
Source A pulse 15h34m15sec340ms UTC
Source B pulse 15h34m15sec340ms UTC
Source A pulse 15h34m15sec350ms UTC
Source B pulse 15h34m15sec350ms UTC
Source A pulse 15h34m15sec360ms UTC
Source B pulse 15h34m15sec360ms UTC
Source C pulse 15h34m15sec340ms UTC
Source C pulse 15h34m15sec350ms UTC

This example shows 2 sets the one sent at 340ms and the one sent at 350ms and the start of another one that isn't complete yet


When the receiver gets those pulses, it can figure out how much delay is between the 3 pulses.
Because it knows it got them at different times, but it can identify them as being sent at the exact same time. They are a set.
In the above example the receiver is closer to A then to B and C is very far away

So you cannot "alter" the coordinates, those are a fixed factor in the system.
This is a simplified example, as GPS works slightly different, it works with trilateration instead of triangulation. Slightly more complicated, and it works in 3D rather then just a flat map.


What the USAF would do in times of war, is turn off the Civilian clear text transmission of the pulses. Leaving only the encrypted pulses to be used by The military who has a fancier "TomTom" that can decrypt those signals.

Now in that case, everybody else will still get some GPS signals, but they will be unusable since there is no information that can be read from them. The trilateration would not work as you would not know what to trilateration from.

It might be possible to still ball park the source location, but if you do not know at which time the source sent the pulse, you cannot do the trilateration.
Because you need a minimum amount of pulses, that were sent at the same time, from the synchronized atomic clocks... That's the key, not the location..

Source A pulse
Source B pulse
Source A pulse
Source C pulse
Source B pulse
Source B pulse
Source A pulse
Source C pulse

All that is meaningless , since you do not know which pulse belongs to which simultaneously sent set.
As such you cannot figure out the delay
it's just useless data at this point.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by svandamme

fixed it for you

Agreed.

In our defense, we have built the greatest nation on the planet by pulling the best, and worst, from everywhere else. You would think then that would we appreciate the rest of the world better. Exceptionalism is a powerful drug. We are addicted.

[jyl]

The leaders of both North Korea and the US benefit from escalating the rhetoric. Both face major domestic challenges, both are obsessed with their public image, and both are using aggressive language to drum up political support of the “rally around the flag” variety.

It is in both Kim and Trump’s interest for the current drama, tension, and attention to be the status quo for some time, then to de-escalate in a manner which allows both to claim victory.

Interestingly, drawing out aggressive military threats from the US is also in China’s interest, as it enhances China’s position in SE Asia as the reasonable, non-aggressive superpower. The other countries in the region are well aware that the death and destruction in a war will be in Asia, not in the US.

There are various ways for such a de-escalation to occur. North Korea could postpone the next missile launch and the US or China could agree to vague future diplomatic talks. North Korea could launch one missile that aborts mid-flight but is reported inside North Korea as being four missiles that hit the advertised target (international waters about 15 miles from Guam) and the US could threaten more fire and fury on the next launch. China could persuade North Korea to refrain from the launch by promising continued economic support, to restrain the US, and to broker future talks, allowing everyone to save face with China getting most of the credit.

There is also the chance of a serious miscalculation that leads to war in Korea. It is hard to say which leader is more likely to make a miscalculation. Kim is more experienced (he's been trained his whole life for his position) and seems calculating, but he may have executed some important adviser; Trump is inexperienced (his ignorance about foreign affairs is remarkable) and seems impulsive, he has a mix of hot-heads and sober minds around him but Kelly is hopefully packing his calendar with the sober ones. Kim knows his and his country’s survival is at stake; Trump probably realizes the (current) military threat to the US is minimal and may be less concerned about the threat to South Korea.

On the other hand, the US, North Korea, and China are almost certainly communicating in secret, a war is in neither leaders’ interest, Kim controls information flow in his country such that he can do X and make his people think he did Y, and Trump doesn’t usually carry out his threats because simply “talking tough” is good enough for his core political base.

TLR version: both Kim and Trump love the high ratings this saber rattling is delivering.

[Steve Carlton]

Kim and Donald are sharing a beer over Face Time.