996: Where and when is the bottom

[discovery2]

With the 996 prices tanking the way they have in the last 12 months it has to be tempting to even the most diehard air cooled only guys. That said, where is the market going? If these cars get any cheaper Im going to have to start thinking harder.

[jkarolyi]

As they get to be 10-15 years old, they will bottom out around $10,000 for a well-maintained example in excellent condition, much like a 928S4 does today. The 996 is more like a continuation of the 928 as a luxury sports coupe than a successor to the raw and rowdy air-cooled 911.

It was designed by marketers using 911 styling elements so it would be a sales success, which it undeniably was. It was engineered to be cheap to build, taking less than 50% of the man hours to build as a 1989 911. While we know that this has done wonders for Porsche's bottom line, I think the bean counters had a little too much influence in the 996. If you doubt me, check out the 996's Ford Taurus-like interior.

While the 996 is an awesome vehicle, and I would love to own one that was still under warranty, they were not designed for longevity the way the air-cooled cars were. The engine blocks, for example, are considered disposable items and are not rebuilt. Many have failed before reaching the five year mark, unheard of in the air-cooled cars. They offer very tempting performance for mid $20s money though...

[the]

I agree, they will be $10K for good condition ones, less for those that need work. When? Well, you can find dozens of them for sale with asking prices in the mid-upper 20s right now ($25-$27K), for a 1999. Those are asking prices, so figure actual purchase of $25K.

I figure they'll continue to depreciate around $2K per year, until they hit $12K or so.

The comparison to the 928 is interesting. The air cooled 911s maintain value because they never die! They just get rebuilt. So there is a lot of market support for parts, information, updates, etc. etc. You see tons of threads of people doing incredible things to resurrect 911s (and even 914s these days) from the chassis up.

You never see that for 924/944/928. When they are worn out, they are scrapped. Will be interesting to see if the 996, 20 years from now, is more like an aircooled 911, or a 924/944/996 in that regard (I don't think people will be rebuilding 996s).

[racer]

I think you are still 5 years away from $10k 996's. Heck, 1997 Boxsters are only now getting to 10K (for high mileage, rattier examples)

I thought I had noticed a bit of a bottoming out already on the 996s, in part because 993 prices could be viewed as artificially high. I haven't seen any '99 996's for under $20K (I am not including any auction prices here).. Most are low to mid 20's for higher mileage examples.

With 997's so expensive I think there is still a chance for 996's to recover a bit from the initial price drops. By 2002/3 they seemed to have been better sorted out, better equiped and better preserved than the 3.4l cars.

I would argue that the 928=996 comparison a bad one as the 996 IS a 911 and the 997 improves upon the basic style and performance that the 996.

It is unclear why people say the new cars are not designed for "longevity". Heck the 996 was produced for 7 years (3.2l carerras for only 5) and in fairly large numbers. I admit there are components known to fail (rms and coolant tanks come quick to mind) and "electronic" components do fail with age, but I can't think of ANY Porsche that can't last 10-15 years or 200,000 properly maintained miles.

Heck, some argue its much nicer being able to purchase a "crate" motor than having to rebuild one.

[EarlyPorsche]

Foolishness. Half as many man hours from an 89 to a 99? We barely had computers in the 80's, obviously it takes half as many man hours with technology advancing by the peak late 90's.

Disposable engine? They are very much rebuildable, however the ones that go bad the dealer finds cheaper to just replace completely. Rather than train master engine builders, they just give you a whole new one. Its courtesy to the customer for not getting something your "garage" assembled. The air cooled ones needed new engines in their warrenty period also, except then you had a hit or miss in terms of rebuild quality, now its always 100%.

[Rockafella]

I find the various opinions on the 996 market fascinating. There are clearly two camps, those that view the 996 as a (real) 911 and those that do not.

With that comes the supporting data for one's view, all of it correct but context must be applied.

Personally, I feel that the 996s will sit right on or slightly below an equivalent 993. The bottom arrives when the 993s hit bottom. That is yet to come imho. But, I think the 996s have stopped their freefall and have began to settle down. I think the 964s are a good predictor of future markets.

The 996 is a great car and in reality a decent 911 to boot. Yes they are complex and refined, but that is progress and a requirement of the industry. You could not get 320HP and 20MPG without those pesky computers.

Keep in mind that the 996 is the sign of the times. When they were new, you went into the dealer with your dot com money and bought a 70k 911 with 20k worth of interior bling. This equates to huge depreciation, as the next buyer is willing to pay exactly zero for your carbon fiber dash kit (sorry, I meant "technic package" ).

If something went wrong, you want a new one. Seriously, do we fix anything anymore? My sister-in-law throws away toaster ovens rather than clean them. You think she is the only one who thinks like this? A new car owner does not want to figure out who (re)builds the best 911 engines in their local market since the answer is obvious...Porsche does.

Porsche does things different these days and we as an enthusiast community can accept that and enjoy the wonderful new products they create or we can live in the dark ages and hope that Porsche becomes Morgan.

Would the Cayman be better air-cooled? Nobody ever criticizes Porsche for that.

My "bulletproof" SC had an 8k engine rebuild at 72k miles. Cracked case studs. If you read the book "Car," you will get some insight into the psychology of owner's complaints and perceptions. Think bandwagon mentality.

[jkarolyi]

Defenders of the water cooled 911s always gloss over the engine issues. If the engine is robust, Why hasn't Porsche turbocharged the 996 engine? Why do they use a further developed 993 engine for the Turbo and GT3? The wet sump 996 engine is an enlarged Boxster engine and is designed for street use only.

"Well, if it blows just install a new $8000 engine". Does anyone really think Porsche will continue subsidizing new engines once the cars get over 10 years old? And if Porsche actually produces the engines that cheap with some profit margin, that says worlds about the standards of the engine. Heck, a Subaru WRX engine costs more.

I'm not advocating Porsche standing still ala Morgan. I really like the 996 and think they should have produced it along side a futher developed 993. I'll stand by my 928 comparison, which is also a *very* fine car by the way, and also originally supposed to replace the 911. It didn't. A 911 the 928 and 996 aren't.

[EarlyPorsche]

Well the real argument isn't a matter of how robust, the 996 does not have a huge history of blown engines. In fact, the main problem is a leaky rear main seal which really is not a problem. Subsidizing engines at 10 years is neither an issue either, as the engine COULD BE rebuilt but Porsche can just as easily throw in a new one, which I would prefer. The argument against turbocharging is odd as well, its a naturally aspirated engine, the other is designed to be turbo charged. Things like pistons, rods, heads, and cranks along with accessory pieces like lubrication vary in the long block of a natrually aspirated engine versus a force induction engine. I mean, turboing a naturally aspirated engine would be pretty irresponsible of them right?
Finally, profit margins? Again the majority run fine, in todays world NO COMPANY REBUILDS ENGINES IN DEALERSHIPS. If you buy any new car and there is a problem with the short block it gets replaced, and I am glad. I would not want some tech or mechanic who can recharge air conditioners to touch my engines bottom end. Give me a new one from the factory.