Ugh! Pano just arrived with some really whacked(?) valuations
 

I just got the new Pano in the mail and saw the cover article titled "The Rapidly Rising interest in early 911's". Cool!

Glancing through it I find a table titled "Early 911 Values - Several Observers contribute their points of view" with some really whacked out values. For example, a '69 911E "Good Driver" is listed with a value of $65,000. :eek: A 69T driver is listed for $45K. Admittedly, the author (Prescott Kelly) adds the footnote...
Duh?! :rolleyes: So the long and the short of it is that the table is based on nothing more econometric than someone's imagination.

Wow! I don't know about anyone else, but I don't own a 911 for investment purposes, I own it because I love to drive it -- which I do almost every day. Values like those in the table move the car out of the realm of a friendly hobby and turn it into an investment. Parts prices go out of sight, insurance costs go up, soon the only people who can afford these cars that we lover are investors.

Personally seeing people try to pump up the market like this makes me cringe. It also tends to encourage what I call the "Holy Icon" syndrome among people selling used 911 cars and parts. The fact that something comes from Porsche seems to make people think that it should be priced as if it is made from gold. So they set stupid reserve prices or hold onto something when a fair price is offered. The result is a market where parts don't move because sellers are sitting on inventory waiting for unreasonable prices. Having bought and sold a lot of parts, I can tell you that a lot of people have stuff squirrelled away in their attics waiting for a dopey buyer to offer them big bucks for it.

Am I the lone heretic who just doesn't get it, or do do others feel like I do? :confused:

There's no doubt longhood values have gone up, but those seem unrealistic. I did flip through the magazine, lots of talk about special, concours or historic cars. Doesn't give an accurate impression of the market in general.

Having said that, when I sold my 911, I thought I was a genius for having driven it for three years, and then sold it for the same amount. Not so genius now, can't get back into one for anywhere near that amount.

And I regret selling her every... single... day.

Yes, you are that heretic.

Kidding.

I have seen some pretty silly pricing in the part section for stuff like early tool kits. My gosh, folks - it's a freakin' TOOL KIT. I suppose that after you've completed a resto on a long hood that's set you back $30k+, I guess dropping nearly $1k on a tool kit really puts the finishing touch on your show car.

But that means that every other jerk with an early tool kit (or fake 962 badge, lol) can demand a mint for a vinyl bag full of otherwise-unremarkable tools.

I am shaking my head that I passed up a set of newly RSR-refinished Fuchs in 16x7 and 16x8 at $1000 shipped. I figured that since tires for the 8-inch wheels were getting scarce, I'd be able to name my price this summer.

LOL. That same set might command twice that price this summer. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, over? LOL.

I guess that if a speculator market arises for early 911s, then the parts market will follow.

jluetjen,

I couldn't agree with you more. While some may be thrilled that their air cooled 911 is rocketing up in value, I hate seeing it, it kills the "hobby". Just as many of the early 911s have disappeared from the roads (or to Europe), so too, will the SCs and Carreras.

The cars will end up being coveted rather than driven and enjoyed. One who may have longed to purchase an air cooled 911, all the while, carefully saving, will be priced out of the market.

If you look at high-end auctions (i.e., RM, Gooding, Bonhams, etc) at the major car events like Monterey or Amelia Island, the numbers quoted by Mr. Kelley are not out of line. The cars that are considered drivers by most of the enthusiast crowd here (me included) would not warrant inclusion in these events nor qualify for such values. If you read the full article, I think he makes this point a bit obliquely.

One thing is undeniable: The collector car market is beginning to recognize the inherent value in early 911's. There is little else on the market that offers the combination of iconic style, performance, useability, ease of maintenance and just plain fun for anywhere close to the money. Go to Monterey in August and see what other vintage European sports cars you can buy between $50,000 - $100,000. Maybe an Alfa.

Those of us who are fortunate enough to own an early 911 now might represent the last generation to truly use and enjoy these cars in the way that they were intended. As values go up, much like the vintage Ferrari market, subsequent owners will be less and less likely to drive their cars.

It's a bit of a shame, since it does kill the hobby and enjoyment. My 73T is my near daily driver. It would fetch nowhere near those prices, but it is in very good shape mechanically and looks very presentable. It is so much fun to drive! My problem is that parts are becoming very high priced, that it makes it difficult to put on 6K miles a year with reasonable cost.

I know of several people hoarding parts including Fuchs, early orange badges, etc. in the hope to strike gold one day (they probably will).

Maybe it's time to put the 73 away and buy a 996 for everyday ... bah, humbug!

keep in mind, these are mint cars, the 5% of best examples. I've been looking for a 944 turbo, and am kind of amazed the number of people who think their car is worth $10k, when it needs all kinds of work.

I sold my 82 911 sc a couple years ago for about 2 grand less than what it was 'worth'. Cars are only worth what someone will pay for it...

Priced out of 911's? There are TONS of cheap 944's to keep you happy ;) (or boxsters too!)

I'm really mad! There I said it. I sold my 1971 911T for $6,500 it was a 9/10 and my '72 911E it was a 8.5/10 for $8,500 in 2002. I told myself, these cars are a dime a dozen, I'll get another one in a few years. Yeah right! I want the '72E back, by the way it had a sunroof. I think right now, it would cost me about $45,000 to get another E. :(

Dime a dozen. This perception is driven by your location, CA has the same problem. See back here in the Midwest where they were driven on salted roads many were Rusty and ratty after 5-6 years. For you young guys on this site many long hoods were scrapped before you were born.
I drive my '73 as often as possible here in the Indy area and so far this year I have seen exactly one other longhood. "Drivers" by this definition are exceedingly rare.
Onthe same level as 356s. I 've seen one of them.

I agree the valuations Pano are unrealistic for 99% of the cars in existence. Those valuations also remind me that a few folks have far more cash trhan sense, and that bubbles can be created when too much cash chases too few goods.

Chris in Kansas City
65 911--rusty & then a tree fell on it
66 911--extremely rusty
83 930 --almost back together after 12 yrs disassembled in a body shop

Not to worry, the Euro is on the brink of destruction, and we will be getting all our cars back...at bargain prices.

I increased the insurance value of my car by a multiple of three after seeing those valuations in Pano.

While I my valuation is still not at those values, it reminded me that replacing my car would be extremely difficult and costly should something happen. It was something that was on my to-do list for a while and this was just another reminder.

I have also put approximately $10,000 of parts and labour into my car in the past 8 years since I purchased it.

Part of my letter to my insurer requesting the valuation increase:

As requested, the following is a list of some of the work completed on the vehicle since the previous appraisal:

1. The vehicle underwent a complete exterior bare metal paint job in the original colour from the factory (black). New exterior seals and trim were purchased and installed at the time of painting as required. New stock H4 headlights, driving lights, front and rear lenses and decklid lettering were also added.

The car was repainted as it had a previous poor paint job that left ‘spidering’ in the paint, not a result of an accident. I have lots of pictures of the pre-existing paint issues prior to the repaint.

2. The original 2.4L engine was overhauled to get the car running better and prevent leakage. A new clutch, rear main seal and clutch cable were installed and the pedal cluster was rebuilt. New Weber carbs and intake filters were installed replacing the Zenith carbs that were previously on the vehicle. Carrera chain tensioners were installed to prevent potential catastrophic engine failure. To resolve oil leakage issues, turbo valve covers and many new gaskets, seals, hoses and parts were installed on the vehicle, in addition to conducting multiple engine maintenance items.

3. The interior was also refurbished. The door panels and pockets were replaced with an original set in much better condition. The seats in the car were removed and a set of stock seats with excellent upholstery was installed. The leather on the steering wheel was redone. New coco mats and a new original-look radio and speaker, seatbelts, etc. were installed. The non-matching tachometer was replaced with a stock 1972 tachometer and a new turn signal stalk and Sucro relay were added. The door stays were also replaced or fixed as required as were multiple other small details such as the dash material and door pulls

4. The targa top received a complete refurbishment.

5. The tires, brakes, stock muffler, some stock suspension components, trunk carpeting, etc. were replaced as required.

6. The aftermarket subwoofer box, door speakers and limo window tint installed by the previous owner were removed.

7. The car was raised back up to stock height and aligned. The wheels were painted and rebalanced.

The engine, transmission and chasis are all numbers matching with no title issues or accident history. The car has all five matching Fuchs wheels with their original finish and the factory tool kit and tools. The car had original factory air-conditioning (non-operable but have all the parts), sport seats and the 911S-trim option. It is an original Canadian car and its known history indicates that it has never left Canada. The serial number (VIN) is 911211XXXX and the mileage is presented at 93,000 miles.

The attached valuation guide from the Porsche Club of America magazine, Panorama, provides the valuation of my car as an excellent driver at approximately $60,000 in U.S. dollars (approximately $62,000). I would like to increase the valuation of my car in the insurance policy to the amount of $XX,000.

coldstart, who do you insure with ? With Statefarm at the moment, but will be shopping around in Canada once restored and operational. Lant ?

I have been with Lant/Silver Wheels/Aviva Insurance for 8 years now. I have never had a claim so I don't know whether they are a good insurer or not-- that is when you find out. Anyone can take premiums.

The Silver Wheels program is now under Haggerty Insurance this year and I believe that they have added a premium to becoming a new insured. My previous policy was extremely cheap ($12/month) and even with the increased valuation, it is still less than $28/month for insurance.

Hey Steve, I put a 3.0 in my 72 last year. You should take her out for a spin and see how it compares to your old 2.7 transplant!

As far as my car's concerned, there likely won't be any subsequent owners that aren't my descendants :)

Can you just call them up and have them change the valuation? I thought they required an appraisal? I'm with Silver Wheels as well, as they ask me for a new appraisal every 2 years. (I think I'm due this summer)

I believe that Silver Wheels used to require an appraisal every 5 years. According to my conversations with the Lant Ins broker, the new insurer, Haggerty Insurance, is moving away from the internal policy of appraisals. The rep said just to send in some photos and a list of improvements to the vehicle and your requested valuation. They approved the valuation.

The biggest hurdle will come should there be a big loss. Your car is insured up to that valuation under the OPCF 44. I recommend you take the time to properly document and photograph your car or have an appraiser do it for you. It will help should you have an issue down the road....

Obviously the more documentation and pics the better. I still think that a proper appraisal is the way to go after major upgrades to a vehicle and worth the $150.

Ah, I see what's happening. My policy has the 19A agreed value clause, which, for me, is really important. On total loss, they pay that amount, no more, no less, and the amount is based on an appraisal. I spend enough time at work haggling with clueless insurance adjusters. I don't want to go through that with my own personal car should the need arise.

Your policy may read $60k, but that's the maximum they'll pay out on a total loss. They'll first try to offer you half that, hope you accept it, then dicker back and forth. The problem is this isn't a 2008 Toyota Camry, where one car is within 5% valuation of any other. Vintage Porsches are all over the map in terms of valuations, even with the major stuff being more or less the same. I couldn't possibly imagine having to deal with the adjusters I deal with for our lease portfolio, on a vintage Porsche. Good god, I'd be pulling my hair out.

I've never understood the "kills the hobby" comment.

There are always going to be under-valued Porsches to play with. 3 years ago, it was the '74-77 911s. Before that, the 3.2 Carrera. Today, it's the 996 and Boxster.

Longhoods have been priced in a bubble for 6-7 years at least, and there is still upward pressure. Want a running long hood for under $20K? They are out there. You just have to apply some imagination to see through the cosmetic challenges.

Pining for the day you could buy a running, presentable longhood for $7K? Well, yes, those days are gone.

Can I just "ditto" this? Add the history of 356 values to the conversation and you have all the info you need to see the past, present and future of Porsche pricing. -- Matt

I don't know about that. I (mistakenly) put my longhood up for sale a year or 2 ago for 20k firm, and the best I got was an offer for 16. Thank god I came to my senses and pulled it from the market, but the action on it was surprisingly light. And that's a running car, with some upgrades, a spare engine, fresh clutch, rebuilt tranny, etc.

This was bound to happen to long hoods. It's actually been happening for the last ten years, and at a much faster rate in the past five. These are now "classic cars" that have greater performance than a 356. I actually think, as owners age, the early 911 might outpace the 356 market... It's already up over last year's prices.

The Pano prices for "collector quality" 911S cars is pretty much correct based on the sales I know about. I think the "good driver" 911T prices are a bit high personally. Those might fall somewhere between the Pano and Excellence estimates.

I think modified early 911s are something that could continue to be of interest to hobbyists. Cheaper than an equivalent original, and more fun to play with.

What people are saying is true. The long hoods are getting expensive....just like the 356 prices have gone. I like 356 cars, but could never afford the starting prices of $40,000 plus for just a good 356C coupe, so I gave up and looked at the early 911. I am fairly late to all these early cars and try to buy under $20,000, but realize it is coming to an end. Even 912's are getting high prices. So yes, to me cars in the above 40k range are no longer just a hobby to drive everyday, gee, how is a guy to justify 40k for a fun daily driver? It turns into a weekend show car and/or garage queen.

opinion on two cars
 

My friend and I both have early 911Es. His a 1972, one owner, coupe, completely original, 42k miles. Yup, only 42k miles.

I have a 1973 911E targa, S trim and guages, 180k miles, some upgrades like Recaro seats and suspension, but still a 2.4 liter, MFI car in very nice condition. Engine rebuild at 140k miles.

We are both considering selling and these prices we hear about make it even more tempting. Oh, yeah, both are metallic green, his original, mine repainted once the same color as original.

Curious as to this forums opinions on how to market and sell these cars.

Thanks.

I guess I'd agree with that, if you include watercooled.

I don't think there will always be under-valued air cooled Porsches to play with. Yes, I'd agree that historically, up til now, that's been true, but I don't think it will be true for too much longer.

Maybe "killing" the hobby is a little extreme, but for those of us dyed in the wool aircooled enthusiasts, the hobby is going to at least start getting maimed as prices get out of reach.

It was fun in the era of being able to buy really nice, driveable longhoods for $10-$15K. That era has of course passed.

It is (or was?) a lot of fun in the era of being able to buy very nice shorthood Carreras for $15-$16K. Not sure if that era has passed, but I'm pretty sure that in 2020, an 80,000 mile, all original G50 Carrera isn't going to be $20,000 anymore.

That's what I meant when I said "killing the hobby". For the guy dreaming of owning an air cooled Porsche some day - he will be forever priced out of the market. My chance of owning a nice long hood (I'd love a 911E) has probably passed.

In addition, as the prices rise, the owners of air cooled cars will be increasingly hesitant to drive their cars on a somewhat daily basis.

Okay, this is just silly.

There have always been people priced out of the market, even when you could buy 911s for $4000.

Now, air cooled Porsches sell for prices similar to a mid-range Lexus or Infiniti or Mercedes or Audi or BMW.

The key difference is that in 2-3 years each of those cars will have cost you $500-700/mo. in depreciation.

......I am becoming more hesitant to drive my 1973.5T on daily joy rides since they have been increasing in price, rarity and desire. I find nothing wrong with that as a purely financial consideration since it represents an appreciating asset outweighing any current investment. I bought it 11 years ago for $9500.00 after the prior owner dumped over 34K into a total restoration. Who knew?! Yes, it should be driven, but if the longhoods are now becoming desired collectibles, beating it down only to restore it again does not make financial sense to me in my present stage of life. It was never intended as a daily driver.

I concur with some of the valuations in Pano coupled with Bruce Anderson's continuing appraisal of the cars as they move up in collectible status.

So, indeed guys like me can sit on them for years making supply more limited as demand soars. Not a bad thing. But then, I can always take it across country with a trunk load of spare parts and a horseshoe up my butt and write a flowery travel story of me and my longhood as I photodocument our great adventure and add more notoriety to the greatness of the Porsche 911 longhoods.

Maybe not a bad idea..........any sponsor(s) out there? :rolleyes:

Bob
73.5T ( in lovely Sepia)

I had this ad forwarded to me yesterday:
1970 Porsche 911T Targa

I'm told asking price is $65k...

Here's an interesting history: 2004, I bought a rusty, neglected '73 E coupe for $2850. Put a couple years and a couple bucks into it and sold it for $16,400. My buyer put a couple years and a couple bucks into it and we sold it in the mid-$20s. It is now coming back on the market and the seller is thinking of asking $65K.

In all honesty, I think the car is a mid $40s car today. Either way, the appreciation is pretty spectacular.

People ask me if they should just buy any random original 911 and sit on it for a few years, and I really don't know. How much higher can/will the market go on these cars? My sense is, not a whole lot.

911e...
 

I could of had my own "Techweenie" story...

I passed on a pretty nice '71 911E (it started near $30k but sold for around $22k if I recall correctly) a few years ago because I didn't like the color!

It was maroon with a black leather interior, and right about now (amongst the long hood craze) I'm feeling pretty silly for passing on it.

If I had a little more foresight, I would have realized that the color was not really bad and that if it had been a color I really liked (signal blue/green or slate grey) it would probably have sold quickly for much more.....

I'm sure I have had more fun with my SC than I would have with that 911E, but as somewhat of an "fun investment," there's no comparison - long hoods rule!

Back in the '80s the Ferrari craze was in full swing. The Ferrari market looked just like the early 911 market today. If you had anything with a prancing horse on it, you were in the money. They went up and up and up, and lots of inexperienced investors tried to jump into the market by buying Ferraris at record prices, assuming they would continue to climb. Then around '88 the bottom fell out of the market and the cars settled down quite a bit in value. The inexperienced guys who said "I want in on this craze" were looking at losses. Of course, being Ferraris, the market came back strong, but it took about 15 years. That's a long time to hold your investment cars. Like Techweenie said, this could very well be the top of the market, at least for now. -- Matt

Yep. In 2006 I paid $1000 for my 1970 911T targa driver. It had been resprayed a couple of times and had a bit of kidney bowl rust. It had S trim and was a solid and reliable daily driver for nearly 2 years.

In 2008 I sold it to a shop in Belgium for just shy of $10k. They did a bare metal restoration on it and in 2009 sold it to a gentleman in Germany for 55K Euro.

I'm pretty confident that if I still had that car today in the exact same condition I owned it in, I could sell it in less than a week for $20-25K.

I've suspended my search for a 73.5 CIS-T because I think the current market (or at least asking) prices simply doesn't make economic sense to me. In fact, I sold a 2010 Cayman-S to raise funds to buy a "nice T" and couldn't justify the ever-increasing prices and so I'm holding onto my money.

Since '05 or '06 I've followed the 911T market closely and noticed a steady upward march in prices that only paused and went sideways during the 08-09 recession - but they never really fell much.

I work on Wall Street and am fascinated by bubbles. Frankly, I don't know if longhood cars are in the midst of a pricing bubble. Owners think not, buyers think so. We'll only know if a 1980's-style Ferrari scenario plays out similarly. In short, we won't know until after the fact when it takes longer to sell a car and downward pricing pressure results.

Here are some totally anecdotal things I've noticed over the past 5 years (this is for 911T's):

1. You could get a 'really nice' driver for $25k-ish until late 2009.
2. Since early 2010 through to today a 'really nice' driver will now cost you at least $40-$50k, and usually more. This is a car with extremely minimal or no rust, survived the 80's intact and is very presentable.
3. Cars I saw in person and passed on due to issues (typically rust) were usually snatched up by European buyers sight unseen. A couple cars I blinked on were gone in a matter of 24-48 hours.

As a result, sellers didn't need to deal with tire kickers and the strong Euro not only put a solid floor on prices, but contributed to the ever-increasing asking prices these cars have experienced. Unfortunately, a lot of junk (that appeared nice on the internet) made it across the Atlantic.

I may have missed an opportunity to buy a longhood, but that's life. Is it a bubble? I don't know, but if Ferrari's with their more exotic appeal and lower production numbers could get hit, I see no reason why early 911's couldn't either. What will prick the bubble? Hard to say. If the Euro goes below 1.20 maybe that will take some steam out. Maybe the market will shift to cars that seem to be a better relative value (3.2's, 993's?) and so buyers will also consider those cars as well.

I brought over a 73 Carrera RS in the grey market heydays in 1984. Since then I've followed the prices. They went way up in the late 80s and peaked somewhere around 1988, then dropped for a few years (like the Ferraris), and I estimate the car lost 50% from the peak by the early 90s. Then prices took off again, but seemed to sputter in the early 2000s. And now we are where we are. So for my 28 years of ownership it's been a sawtooth with an upward slope. Timing is everything.

I don't know if it's a bubble, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a correction of 20-25%. Especially if the Euro tanks.

FWIW, I estimate that, at 3.5% annual inflation, my car is worth pretty much the same as what it was in 1988. The two peaks (if this is in fact a peak) are similar in inflation-adjusted dollars.

I'd be interested in reading the article... I went to the book store and they didn't carry it. Any chance someone can scan it?

thanks!

Well, here's a link to the important part on Early S. Shows the values, but only the beginning of the article. The pdf file is about halfway down the page. Tried to attach the pdf here but it seems beyond my abilities...

Panorama early 911 values

I have a contary opinion here and think we will see more upside especially with 1974-89 cars. I would expect all air cooled cars to appreciate more in the next decade. Lots and lots of people with money now in their 40's getting older who are getting disillusioned with other investments and are seeing an air colled 911 as something fun and safe to own. I personally kow 3 people who have paid top dollar for 3.2's in the last year as they think (as do I) that these cars will be very hard to find soon.

As for Europe I am there very often and whether the Euro tanks or not the demand for air cooled 911's will only increase. There are just not enough cars available anymore and whether there is a reccesion or not the kind of people who are buying these cars are generally well insulated already and paying with cash.

Todays price will look like a bargain soon I think and even the beater 10k mid year 911 will disappear as the parts will become way more valuable than the sum.

Here is some info on the prices of longhoods in the past few years. I wonder if the current prices shown from 2011 has increased significantly for the the E and T models. We all know the S prices is just way up there. Excellence :: Buyers Guide :