Ugh! Pano just arrived with some really whacked(?) valuations

[jluetjen]

I just got the new Pano in the mail and saw the cover article titled "The Rapidly Rising interest in early 911's". Cool!

Glancing through it I find a table titled "Early 911 Values - Several Observers contribute their points of view" with some really whacked out values. For example, a '69 911E "Good Driver" is listed with a value of $65,000. A 69T driver is listed for $45K. Admittedly, the author (Prescott Kelly) adds the footnote...

These estimates are strictly the personal opinions of the creators. They disclaim any authoritatiave sources other than their personal experiences. They recognize that the market is very fluid and that these numbers could be proven incorrect by any number of valid transactions with which the authors are not familiar"

Duh?! So the long and the short of it is that the table is based on nothing more econometric than someone's imagination.

Wow! I don't know about anyone else, but I don't own a 911 for investment purposes, I own it because I love to drive it -- which I do almost every day. Values like those in the table move the car out of the realm of a friendly hobby and turn it into an investment. Parts prices go out of sight, insurance costs go up, soon the only people who can afford these cars that we lover are investors.

Personally seeing people try to pump up the market like this makes me cringe. It also tends to encourage what I call the "Holy Icon" syndrome among people selling used 911 cars and parts. The fact that something comes from Porsche seems to make people think that it should be priced as if it is made from gold. So they set stupid reserve prices or hold onto something when a fair price is offered. The result is a market where parts don't move because sellers are sitting on inventory waiting for unreasonable prices. Having bought and sold a lot of parts, I can tell you that a lot of people have stuff squirrelled away in their attics waiting for a dopey buyer to offer them big bucks for it.

Am I the lone heretic who just doesn't get it, or do do others feel like I do?

[Komenda Fan]

There's no doubt longhood values have gone up, but those seem unrealistic. I did flip through the magazine, lots of talk about special, concours or historic cars. Doesn't give an accurate impression of the market in general.

Having said that, when I sold my 911, I thought I was a genius for having driven it for three years, and then sold it for the same amount. Not so genius now, can't get back into one for anywhere near that amount.

And I regret selling her every... single... day.

[SilberUrS6]

Originally Posted by jluetjen

The result is a market where parts don't move because sellers are sitting on inventory waiting for unreasonable prices. Having bought and sold a lot of parts, I can tell you that a lot of people have stuff squirrelled away in their attics waiting for a dopey buyer to offer them big bucks for it.

Am I the lone heretic who just doesn't get it, or do do others feel like I do?

Yes, you are that heretic.

Kidding.

I have seen some pretty silly pricing in the part section for stuff like early tool kits. My gosh, folks - it's a freakin' TOOL KIT. I suppose that after you've completed a resto on a long hood that's set you back $30k+, I guess dropping nearly $1k on a tool kit really puts the finishing touch on your show car.

But that means that every other jerk with an early tool kit (or fake 962 badge, lol) can demand a mint for a vinyl bag full of otherwise-unremarkable tools.

I am shaking my head that I passed up a set of newly RSR-refinished Fuchs in 16x7 and 16x8 at $1000 shipped. I figured that since tires for the 8-inch wheels were getting scarce, I'd be able to name my price this summer.

LOL. That same set might command twice that price this summer. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot, over? LOL.

I guess that if a speculator market arises for early 911s, then the parts market will follow.

[KNS]

jluetjen,

I couldn't agree with you more. While some may be thrilled that their air cooled 911 is rocketing up in value, I hate seeing it, it kills the "hobby". Just as many of the early 911s have disappeared from the roads (or to Europe), so too, will the SCs and Carreras.

The cars will end up being coveted rather than driven and enjoyed. One who may have longed to purchase an air cooled 911, all the while, carefully saving, will be priced out of the market.

[geshaghi]

If you look at high-end auctions (i.e., RM, Gooding, Bonhams, etc) at the major car events like Monterey or Amelia Island, the numbers quoted by Mr. Kelley are not out of line. The cars that are considered drivers by most of the enthusiast crowd here (me included) would not warrant inclusion in these events nor qualify for such values. If you read the full article, I think he makes this point a bit obliquely.

One thing is undeniable: The collector car market is beginning to recognize the inherent value in early 911's. There is little else on the market that offers the combination of iconic style, performance, useability, ease of maintenance and just plain fun for anywhere close to the money. Go to Monterey in August and see what other vintage European sports cars you can buy between $50,000 - $100,000. Maybe an Alfa.

Those of us who are fortunate enough to own an early 911 now might represent the last generation to truly use and enjoy these cars in the way that they were intended. As values go up, much like the vintage Ferrari market, subsequent owners will be less and less likely to drive their cars.

[Wiese]

It's a bit of a shame, since it does kill the hobby and enjoyment. My 73T is my near daily driver. It would fetch nowhere near those prices, but it is in very good shape mechanically and looks very presentable. It is so much fun to drive! My problem is that parts are becoming very high priced, that it makes it difficult to put on 6K miles a year with reasonable cost.

I know of several people hoarding parts including Fuchs, early orange badges, etc. in the hope to strike gold one day (they probably will).

Maybe it's time to put the 73 away and buy a 996 for everyday ... bah, humbug!

[chamilun]

keep in mind, these are mint cars, the 5% of best examples. I've been looking for a 944 turbo, and am kind of amazed the number of people who think their car is worth $10k, when it needs all kinds of work.

I sold my 82 911 sc a couple years ago for about 2 grand less than what it was 'worth'. Cars are only worth what someone will pay for it...

[racer]

Priced out of 911's? There are TONS of cheap 944's to keep you happy (or boxsters too!)

[Rodney Nelson]

I'm really mad! There I said it. I sold my 1971 911T for $6,500 it was a 9/10 and my '72 911E it was a 8.5/10 for $8,500 in 2002. I told myself, these cars are a dime a dozen, I'll get another one in a few years. Yeah right! I want the '72E back, by the way it had a sunroof. I think right now, it would cost me about $45,000 to get another E.

[copbait73]

Originally Posted by Rodney Nelson

I'm really mad! There I said it. I sold my 1971 911T for $6,500 it was a 9/10 and my '72 911E it was a 8.5/10 for $8,500 in 2002. I told myself, these cars are a dime a dozen, I'll get another one in a few years. Yeah right! I want the '72E back, by the way it had a sunroof. I think right now, it would cost me about $45,000 to get another E.

Dime a dozen. This perception is driven by your location, CA has the same problem. See back here in the Midwest where they were driven on salted roads many were Rusty and ratty after 5-6 years. For you young guys on this site many long hoods were scrapped before you were born.
I drive my '73 as often as possible here in the Indy area and so far this year I have seen exactly one other longhood. "Drivers" by this definition are exceedingly rare.
Onthe same level as 356s. I 've seen one of them.

[chris steineger]

I agree the valuations Pano are unrealistic for 99% of the cars in existence. Those valuations also remind me that a few folks have far more cash trhan sense, and that bubbles can be created when too much cash chases too few goods.

Chris in Kansas City
65 911--rusty & then a tree fell on it
66 911--extremely rusty
83 930 --almost back together after 12 yrs disassembled in a body shop

[car-reras]

Not to worry, the Euro is on the brink of destruction, and we will be getting all our cars back...at bargain prices.

[coldstart]

I increased the insurance value of my car by a multiple of three after seeing those valuations in Pano.

While I my valuation is still not at those values, it reminded me that replacing my car would be extremely difficult and costly should something happen. It was something that was on my to-do list for a while and this was just another reminder.

I have also put approximately $10,000 of parts and labour into my car in the past 8 years since I purchased it.

Part of my letter to my insurer requesting the valuation increase:

As requested, the following is a list of some of the work completed on the vehicle since the previous appraisal:

1. The vehicle underwent a complete exterior bare metal paint job in the original colour from the factory (black). New exterior seals and trim were purchased and installed at the time of painting as required. New stock H4 headlights, driving lights, front and rear lenses and decklid lettering were also added.

The car was repainted as it had a previous poor paint job that left ‘spidering’ in the paint, not a result of an accident. I have lots of pictures of the pre-existing paint issues prior to the repaint.

2. The original 2.4L engine was overhauled to get the car running better and prevent leakage. A new clutch, rear main seal and clutch cable were installed and the pedal cluster was rebuilt. New Weber carbs and intake filters were installed replacing the Zenith carbs that were previously on the vehicle. Carrera chain tensioners were installed to prevent potential catastrophic engine failure. To resolve oil leakage issues, turbo valve covers and many new gaskets, seals, hoses and parts were installed on the vehicle, in addition to conducting multiple engine maintenance items.

3. The interior was also refurbished. The door panels and pockets were replaced with an original set in much better condition. The seats in the car were removed and a set of stock seats with excellent upholstery was installed. The leather on the steering wheel was redone. New coco mats and a new original-look radio and speaker, seatbelts, etc. were installed. The non-matching tachometer was replaced with a stock 1972 tachometer and a new turn signal stalk and Sucro relay were added. The door stays were also replaced or fixed as required as were multiple other small details such as the dash material and door pulls

4. The targa top received a complete refurbishment.

5. The tires, brakes, stock muffler, some stock suspension components, trunk carpeting, etc. were replaced as required.

6. The aftermarket subwoofer box, door speakers and limo window tint installed by the previous owner were removed.

7. The car was raised back up to stock height and aligned. The wheels were painted and rebalanced.

The engine, transmission and chasis are all numbers matching with no title issues or accident history. The car has all five matching Fuchs wheels with their original finish and the factory tool kit and tools. The car had original factory air-conditioning (non-operable but have all the parts), sport seats and the 911S-trim option. It is an original Canadian car and its known history indicates that it has never left Canada. The serial number (VIN) is 911211XXXX and the mileage is presented at 93,000 miles.

The attached valuation guide from the Porsche Club of America magazine, Panorama, provides the valuation of my car as an excellent driver at approximately $60,000 in U.S. dollars (approximately $62,000). I would like to increase the valuation of my car in the insurance policy to the amount of $XX,000.

[NorthernThrux]

coldstart, who do you insure with ? With Statefarm at the moment, but will be shopping around in Canada once restored and operational. Lant ?

[coldstart]

I have been with Lant/Silver Wheels/Aviva Insurance for 8 years now. I have never had a claim so I don't know whether they are a good insurer or not-- that is when you find out. Anyone can take premiums.

The Silver Wheels program is now under Haggerty Insurance this year and I believe that they have added a premium to becoming a new insured. My previous policy was extremely cheap ($12/month) and even with the increased valuation, it is still less than $28/month for insurance.

[Christien]

Originally Posted by Komenda Fan

And I regret selling her every... single... day.

Hey Steve, I put a 3.0 in my 72 last year. You should take her out for a spin and see how it compares to your old 2.7 transplant!

Originally Posted by geshaghi

As values go up, much like the vintage Ferrari market, subsequent owners will be less and less likely to drive their cars.

As far as my car's concerned, there likely won't be any subsequent owners that aren't my descendants

Originally Posted by coldstart

I would like to increase the valuation of my car in the insurance policy to the amount of $XX,000.

Can you just call them up and have them change the valuation? I thought they required an appraisal? I'm with Silver Wheels as well, as they ask me for a new appraisal every 2 years. (I think I'm due this summer)

[coldstart]

I believe that Silver Wheels used to require an appraisal every 5 years. According to my conversations with the Lant Ins broker, the new insurer, Haggerty Insurance, is moving away from the internal policy of appraisals. The rep said just to send in some photos and a list of improvements to the vehicle and your requested valuation. They approved the valuation.

The biggest hurdle will come should there be a big loss. Your car is insured up to that valuation under the OPCF 44. I recommend you take the time to properly document and photograph your car or have an appraiser do it for you. It will help should you have an issue down the road....

[coldstart]

Obviously the more documentation and pics the better. I still think that a proper appraisal is the way to go after major upgrades to a vehicle and worth the $150.

[Christien]

Ah, I see what's happening. My policy has the 19A agreed value clause, which, for me, is really important. On total loss, they pay that amount, no more, no less, and the amount is based on an appraisal. I spend enough time at work haggling with clueless insurance adjusters. I don't want to go through that with my own personal car should the need arise.

Your policy may read $60k, but that's the maximum they'll pay out on a total loss. They'll first try to offer you half that, hope you accept it, then dicker back and forth. The problem is this isn't a 2008 Toyota Camry, where one car is within 5% valuation of any other. Vintage Porsches are all over the map in terms of valuations, even with the major stuff being more or less the same. I couldn't possibly imagine having to deal with the adjusters I deal with for our lease portfolio, on a vintage Porsche. Good god, I'd be pulling my hair out.

[techweenie]

I've never understood the "kills the hobby" comment.

There are always going to be under-valued Porsches to play with. 3 years ago, it was the '74-77 911s. Before that, the 3.2 Carrera. Today, it's the 996 and Boxster.

Longhoods have been priced in a bubble for 6-7 years at least, and there is still upward pressure. Want a running long hood for under $20K? They are out there. You just have to apply some imagination to see through the cosmetic challenges.

Pining for the day you could buy a running, presentable longhood for $7K? Well, yes, those days are gone.