Road and Track article on the "bubble"

[TheGreg]

Classic Sports Car Bubble — Buying Vintage Cars

You can make almost exactly the same arguments regarding the Porsche 911 Carrera 3.2, which sold in unprecedented numbers during the Eighties and which can't stay in front of a Toyota Camry V6. Yet air-cooled 911s, even the crummy ones, are currently selling for unheard-of prices. Ten years ago, I passed up all sorts of 911SCs for 11 or 12 grand. Those same cars are now selling for $30,000. Carreras with the G50 transmission are doubling that. And if a 1984 Porsche with 100,000 miles on it is worth 60 grand, surely the Ferrari from the same era is worth more.

...and this one.

So the old saying might be right: You can't pay too much for a Ferrari or an air-cooled Porsche. You can only buy it a little too soon.

I'm glad I got mine in 2012, juuuust predated the rise.

[Biff]

Really good and funny read. The author is spot on!

[1979-930]

Thanks for the link. Good read.

The final paragraph is spot on and the reason I purchased mine. Overpriced or not. I have never had any fun owning stocks or property. While the value of this car goes up and down I get to enjoy the ride. And if someone would sell me an insurance policy on my stocks protecting my investment from total loss, I'd buy it today.

[War584]

"The best thing that could happen, and the most likely thing, is that you could find yourself driving a great road in your childhood dream car, just the way you always imagined it."... Amen brother.

Thanks for sharing.

[ficke]

Thanks, good read.

[Sox Fan]

good article indeed. thanks for sharing.

[Anje]

Yes that's a great one. Thanks for sharing.

[87maniac]

"... the assumption that a generation still unborn will care about cars
in general and gasoline-powered cars from before their birth in particular.
Do you give much of a damn about Hupmobiles or Hispano-Suizas?
How about accordions?"

I would say my age group has no interest driving hot rods
or 70's Muscle cars. Those are the domain of the 'old kickers'.

Our generation grew up with European hot hatches/sports coupes
with the 'new' radial tires. Lusted after Alfas, Pcars, BMW, Lotus.
Got our licenses ASAP at 15-16 and never looked back.

Twenty-somethings could care less about -any- of the above!
Many don't have their Drivers License yet.
Those that do can't drive a stick or parallel park,
let alone drive a twisty mountain course at 9/10's.
They are the market for the coming Google/Apple cars.

End of an era.

[McLovin]

The bubble already has ended. For example, prices for 84-89 Carreras are no higher today than they were a year ago. Probably a bit lower.

Same for 308s. He's a little high on his estimates of what those are going for. Those have a huge disadvantage compared to a 911, since (1) they are actually kind of crappy cars, slow, poorly made, and frankly too heavy and not that fun to drive and (2) too expensive to maintain for most. All in all, while there were fewer of them make, their appeal is far less universal.

High production cars like 78-89 911s are going to be affected by the aging demographic. There were a lot of those cars made, a lot still exist, and demand is dropping and will continue to drop in the next 10 years.

IMO nostalgia buying happens most with 40-55 year olds.

Guys who were teens to 20 in the 80s are now roughly late 40s to early 50s. Getting up there as far as buying cars to relive youth. 10 years from now, demand for 80s 911s will be far, far less than it is today.

[McLovin]

I'm a good example. I've owned a dozen 911s, it's the car I lusted after as a 16 year old in the early 80s.

I currently have a G50 Carrera. I don't have plans to sell it, but when I do, I doubt I will ever have one again. And this is after having them consistently since 1990.

If you live long enough, everyone gets to an age when you get over it.

[shaunmbenson]

I just don't think it holds that in 10 years there will be less demand for 80s 911s than now.

If the reasoning behind that bore out then 356s would be cheaper than they were 20 years ago and 10 years ago.

Obviously the same for early 911s. If that marker segment is now aged out of the prime of purchasing desire why are 911Ts 5-10 times what they were 10 years ago?

[bpu699]

Cars from the 80s just started going up 3 years ago... Youre predicting their demise already .

Certain halo cars persist and stay at high values...

Look at 356s...

Ferrari Dino's... Boxers...

I suspect the countach, testarossa, and 930 will follow the same path...


Last Pca event I went to, the guys with the really expensive cars were in their 60s...

Goto a concours... The owners are all older...

I am in my mid forties. There is a generation or two after us that will still want these cars. They still make Porsches... So the brand has name recognition...

Can't say the same for a dusenberg or Hispana suiza...

[Rick Brooklyn]

Yeah you're right, Bugatti, they stopped making those what, 70 years ago or something? I mean the real ones, not the volkswagens.

[CountD]

Originally Posted by McLovin

If you live long enough, everyone gets to an age when you get over it.

Words of wisdom. I agree - you do get over things.

Interesting thing is about cars like a DeLorean. I'm in my mid-40s, and I went to this guys house that was in his mid-30s - and he had a DeLorean. Loved it because of Back to the Future. A DeLorean may be a timeless classic because of its movie connection.

You would think that a 928 would be more sentimental because of Risky Business, Cannonball Run, Weird Science and a bunch of others but it is not.

Movies like Back to the Future span entire generations, making the DeLorean always special so people will always make that connection.

[panzerfaust]

Originally Posted by McLovin

The bubble already has ended. For example, prices for 84-89 Carreras are no higher today than they were a year ago. Probably a bit lower.

Same for 308s. He's a little high on his estimates of what those are going for. Those have a huge disadvantage compared to a 911, since (1) they are actually kind of crappy cars, slow, poorly made, and frankly too heavy and not that fun to drive and (2) too expensive to maintain for most. All in all, while there were fewer of them make, their appeal is far less universal.

High production cars like 78-89 911s are going to be affected by the aging demographic. There were a lot of those cars made, a lot still exist, and demand is dropping and will continue to drop in the next 10 years.

IMO nostalgia buying happens most with 40-55 year olds.

Guys who were teens to 20 in the 80s are now roughly late 40s to early 50s. Getting up there as far as buying cars to relive youth. 10 years from now, demand for 80s 911s will be far, far less than it is today.

nicely written... but

ive had a 930 and now a M491. unlike the usa smog dogs injected cars, not all 308's arent broadly as slow and poorly made as you make them out to be in my experience. early cars yes but the later qv's were screwed together pretty well no worse than my M491. I had a couple of 308's too. u can see here in a period c&d test it was the fastest car at Big Willow followed by a turbo esprit then a M491 carrera (a rare test). for the record, i have an g-body esprit also :-). http://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/1984-porsche-911-carrera-archived-road-test-review

the euro qv gtb that ive driven is evey bit as quick as the 3.2's. At a around 2900lbs stock it weighs no more than usa spec m491 dentist spec car. the difference is you can remove the extra fat in a 911 much easier than a 308 if you are track preparing.

308 gr4 tribute cars are the rage in europe now and they are 2200ish pounds. worse thing about a 308 is the drivetrain CG is mounted high up and there isnt much u can do about that. The best thing is that this motor spins to 7700 stock, has more power and dosent feel like blow up like a 3.2 at 6800. Shifting is 1000x more satisfying that a 915 box and much better than a G50 IMO.

maintenance favors the porsche since there are less valves to adjust but in the last 3-5 years the rebuild cost are the same at 15-20K. possibly even more than the fcar since the price gouging on the air-cooled parts. basically the cost of a total rebuild on the 308 has remain somewhat constant while the 911's have increased 3 fold in the last 30 years.

but i still prefer my porsche

just my 2 cents...pf

[amg463]

Originally Posted by McLovin

10 years from now, demand for 80s 911s will be far, far less than it is today.

I'm positive history will prove you 100% wrong on this. Wish I could make a bet on it.

[ficke]

People who are making the point that these cars will not be desired forever are maybe even a few generations from now are of course agreeing with the main thrust of the OP link but seem to be missing out on the main point of the author, which is summed up in his finial paragraph, which is the ultimate reward of owning these cars is the enjoyment they bring us.

[Mick_D]

The best point the author of that article brought up was the fact that an '80s 3.2 Carrera is slower than a 2016 Toyota Camry with a V6. In fact, most of the 'supercars' of the late 70s and early 80s are dogs compared to what's been made after 2000.

A stock 2001 BMW E46 M3 is faster in every category than a stock 1975 930.

But we all know which one most people would rather drive.

[Otter74]

Originally Posted by Mick_D

The best point the author of that article brought up was the fact that an '80s 3.2 Carrera is slower than a 2016 Toyota Camry with a V6. In fact, most of the 'supercars' of the late 70s and early 80s are dogs compared to what's been made after 2000.

A stock 2001 BMW E46 M3 is faster in every category than a stock 1975 930.

But we all know which one most people would rather drive.

I think many of us know that you do not need to have a fast car - either in absolute terms or in comparative terms - to have fun. Witness the below for a great example:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdBuwzRAEAw

[techweenie]

Talking about Porsches as if they were commodity cars is just lazy and careless. The special Porsches are bringing ever more money as the newbies to the Porsche world get smarter about their investments. The middle and bottom of the market for 3.2 Carreras aren't showing signs of slowing in my world, but I clearly live in a different world than some of the people here.

A few recent events in Miami and Los Angeles show a rising interest in the entire range of air cooled Porsches among 'millennials' and 'Gen X-ers.'