Next recession?

[ckelly78z]

Originally Posted by flatbutt

Whenever it occurs and however bad it gets remember it will be followed by a recovery.

Stay the course, hold your stocks, buy low while it is a deal, and watch it grow. This only works if you have the time to do so.

[Jims5543]

Originally Posted by KC911

I wish you had posted it Jim...sometimes I lie like a politician ....and I appreciate your posts and perspective....I just have a TOTALLY different perspective on "easy credit". The FED is nothing more than the "bankers' bank".... giving these large entities free, or low interest loans to make their billions ? You're a "go getter" and I admire that.....

I've also worked for two of the megabanks (one defunct) though my expertise is in IT and quantitative analysis.

You don't give a drunk a shot of "juice" when the DTs hit....painful as it is imo.. You get them off the "sauce".... or pay dearly....on down the road. This "road" began in '80...with hills and valleys....

This "might" be my last post....but I'll continue to read everyone's perspective....even Sammy's .

I'm outta the door....just don't hang a "chad" today

I was not trying to insult you in any of my posts, if I have come across that way, I apologize. I felt like I upset you with my post a graphs. I was making fun of myself for posting graphs Kachi style.

I have to run busy day maybe this evening or tomorrow I will reconstruct the post.

[sammyg2]

The FED is not the cure, the FED is the disease.

Manipulating monetary supply can affect temporary symptoms but they too often over-correct, they tweak, and artificially influence. that is wrong, that is bad.

Our market is designed to be self-regulating and self-adjusting. by manipulating we upset the market and it takes many years to counter. buy that time the socialistic economists (redundant) have already swung the pendulum too far in the opposite direction.

What we end up with is an unstable economy full of swings when it should be stable.
But stability doesn't make wall street rich, swings do.
Stability doesn't make your political opponents look bad, swings do.
And the small time investor/saver pays the price.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

Our market is designed to be self-regulating and self-adjusting.

I don't think so. It gets adjusted every few years or so because it is NOT self-regulating or self-adjusting. Take a look at the 1850 to 1933 time period, when the markets were not designed, they ran themselves. Huge recessions, multiple depressions, child labor, monopolies - we had people who were filthy rich killing employees who demanded non-lethal working conditions and a living wage.
A free market is not paradise.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by fintstone

This. While usually economic cycles are largely not politically driven, the long, drawn out pain recovering from the last recession was and the recent boom has been...because in both cases, leaders specifically targeted business to fundamentally change the nation. (rightly or wrongly depending on your social politics). Incredibly poor (or good) leadership in Washington does indeed have an impact. The opening up of more U.S. oil and gas drilling will help keep the momentum up for quite a while if we can get a handle on debt...as the interest is devastating and will be worse as rates go up. Closing the borders and cutting entitlements seems the only way to significantly reduce spending. Once again...it depends on political will (of whomever wins the House and their constituency).

Right now, my bet is that we are in a slight pause (economically) that will continue upward in Nov...unless a significant event changes the trajectory.

You also will have to cut the DOD.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by KC911

Mebbe a topic for another thread....what do y'all think is the "sweet spot" for the FED prime rate? It absolutely needs to be over a 100 basis points higher than it is now. The FED has it's faults, but it also covered EVERY one of our butt$ ten years ago. Without the FEDs actions (like them or not)....where do you think we'd be now?

I'd like to see the FED prime rate return to around 3.5%...give or take.

With Kc I don't even have to make comment anymore. My fingers are tired anyway.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by KC911

You've got it ALL wrong imo. The "cheap, easy credit" of ultra-low FED rates are exactly the "cause" of this crap. The FED rate absolutely needs to go back to traditional levels....and we are NOT there yet. What do YOU think the FED prime rate should be? Serious question. Will it have a negative impact on growth? Absolutely....just like it has been since '15...

The recent GDP growth numbers don't come close to growth a couple of qtrs in 2014 btw.

Just saw my R Congressman being interviewed.....he said increasing the national debt was nothing to be concerned about. I think he's an idiot . Is that PARFY ?

Better be careful of what you wish for.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Porsche-O-Phile

I think there may be one looming. There is a humongous bubble in the stock market today and there’s also a bubble that’s formed in the RE market and worse still we still aren’t “really” recovered from how bad 2008-09 was.

We’re fully ten years out from that recession and the federal reserve still has VERY low interest rates and billions of dollars of junk / bad / “subprime” debt on its books (and will for decades) created during the stupidity of the housing bubble of the mid-2000s. While I don’t see what’s coming as catastrophic, I think it will last longer than it “should” and be slower to recover than has been the case historically simply because the federal reserve doesn’t have the tools to juice the economy when needed - they used every tool in the toolbox to keep the ship afloat during the time from 2008-2012 or so and has STILL (ten years later!) been reluctant to raise rates. We also STILL are seeing anemic wage growth. Only very recently has there been an uptick in salaries... It has taken a very, very long time to haplen and won’t have much time to “marinate” before there is downward pressure on salaries again. That can’t help matters... There’s a lot of money out there but most of it is consolidated with the very, very wealthy. None of that helps. I suspect in the next 2-3 years there will be a downturn for a year or so, followed by sloooooooow, lackluster growth (think 2013-2016).

Well I am at least glad that you think.

We never recovered. Low to no interest rates proves the point. Monied interests have been taxed with low interest rates. They should have had a higher roi.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

Cheap money cum corporate debt bubble
No wage growth
Trade and tariff uncertainty ultimately netting out to inflation
Protectionism
Banking deregulation
More buyers than sellers in the stock market
Tax cuts
National debt at $22 trillion

What could go wrong?

You forgot to mention T.

[seafeye]

My company I work for has had record hiring last 3 years.
But zero growth. We are just replacing the folks retiring.
If anything we are going to shrink in the next 5 years.

Low unemployment record hiring is just a number. It tells a story. Not the whole story.

[nota]

BuSH2 and the Gop caused the last bad one in 2007-8
mr O would have recovered fast and better BUT the Gop use every trick they had
to make the recovery slow and limited

T-rump will cause the next one by his insane actions esp about trade
trade/tariffs was the cause of the Gop led crash in 29
T-rump is trying hard to rerun that disaster

[tabs]

Originally Posted by flatbutt

Whenever it occurs and however bad it gets remember it will be followed by a recovery.

You are mixed up...it is night is followed by day.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by sammyg2

The FED is not the cure, the FED is the disease.

Manipulating monetary supply can affect temporary symptoms but they too often over-correct, they tweak, and artificially influence. that is wrong, that is bad.

Our market is designed to be self-regulating and self-adjusting. by manipulating we upset the market and it takes many years to counter. buy that time the socialistic economists (redundant) have already swung the pendulum too far in the opposite direction.

What we end up with is an unstable economy full of swings when it should be stable.
But stability doesn't make wall street rich, swings do.
Stability doesn't make your political opponents look bad, swings do.
And the small time investor/saver pays the price.

The FED saved your azz so that you could have 7 figures to sell off. You are one of the guys who should be giving em bj' s in gratitude.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by Jims5543

I was not trying to insult you in any of my posts, if I have come across that way, I apologize. I felt like I upset you with my post a graphs. I was making fun of myself for posting graphs Kachi style.

I have to run busy day maybe this evening or tomorrow I will reconstruct the post.

No worries Jim....I didn't take it that way at all. I enjoy the exchanges of ideas with others...

Even Tabby doesn't bug me when he calls me a maroon, and I've only had my intelligence insulted a few times by someone on this thread over the years....and I still like him too

[tabs]

Originally Posted by nota

BuSH2 and the Gop caused the last bad one in 2007-8
mr O would have recovered fast and better BUT the Gop use every trick they had
to make the recovery slow and limited

T-rump will cause the next one by his insane actions esp about trade
trade/tariffs was the cause of the Gop led crash in 29
T-rump is trying hard to rerun that disaster

I have more prosaic things to say about what you should go and do to yourself...but won't. You are so out to lunch in Pelosi land that you are not even worth reading. End of your story!

[tabs]

Originally Posted by KC911

No worries Jim....I didn't take it that way at all. I enjoy the exchanges of ideas with others...

Even Tabby doesn't bug me when he calls me a maroon, and I've only had my intelligence insulted a few times by someone on this thread over the years....and I still like him too

You have lots of company to hang with. I find myself quite alone.

One thing that will help yalll is if you widen your time frames and see the panorama of history. Go back 100 years and follow the bread crumbs that will lead you to today. What happened back then sets the stage for today.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by wdfifteen

I don't think so. It gets adjusted every few years or so because it is NOT self-regulating or self-adjusting. Take a look at the 1850 to 1933 time period, when the markets were not designed, they ran themselves. Huge recessions, multiple depressions, child labor, monopolies - we had people who were filthy rich killing employees who demanded non-lethal working conditions and a living wage.
A free market is not paradise.

The rise of the unions..

[tabs]

BO fettered business with regulations through exec orders. Which created uncertainty in business people. Once he left office and a pro biz guy came in biz people had a sigh of relief. Reflected in a bump in the econ.

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by tabs

You have lots of company to hang with. I find myself quite alone.

....

I've always heard it's lonely at the top of that mountain....with nuthin' but a burning bush to keep ya warm

....but that's just not my cross to bear.

Alas....if only someone would've warned us boyz earlier .

[tabs]

I am not worried about a recession cause we all are going to die anyway.