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cabmandone 03-09-2020 09:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by speeder (Post 10777358)
I don't think that the reaction to CV is irrational, China is all but off-line for the time being and travel is dead, other than essential business travel. Europe is extremely disrupted, especially Italy.

It's temporary but it's going to hurt for a minute. The real story is all of the people who will get filthy rich off the situation.

I might not get filthy rich off of this but I've been working to get myself in a good cash position to take advantage of a correction and I plan to capitalize.

It is irrational. We're not really in the heart of travel season. I'd be more concerned if we were coming into summer travel time and this was hitting but we're not. This too shall pass.

Shaun @ Tru6 03-09-2020 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by speeder (Post 10777358)
I don't think that the reaction to CV is irrational, China is all but off-line for the time being and travel is dead, other than essential business travel. Europe is extremely disrupted, especially Italy.

It's temporary but it's going to hurt for a minute. The real story is all of the people who will get filthy rich off the situation.

I cancelled trips to Italy and Morocco over the weekend. Everyone I know has canceled travel plans.

With the world economy slowing and U.S. Corps taking on massive debt with cheap money, earnings will decrease substantial 2 to 6 months out, many won't be able to service their debt. That and the combination of businesses going under and the Corp. tax cut, tax revenue will be substantially lower leading to an even higher incredible deficit and debt.

Good times to come.

93nav 03-09-2020 10:13 AM

Even if this virus passes quickly, which is a big if, I rather doubt that people will want to travel very soon. Even if they have the money, which a lot won't.

In the 1970's, the DOW fell from about 1050 to 577. Lets call that an even 50%.



Quote:

Originally Posted by cabmando (Post 10777390)
I might not get filthy rich off of this but I've been working to get myself in a good cash position to take advantage of a correction and I plan to capitalize.

It is irrational. We're not really in the heart of travel season. I'd be more concerned if we were coming into summer travel time and this was hitting but we're not. This too shall pass.


93nav 03-09-2020 10:33 AM

People will be staying home. Netflix and Roku may benefit, at least temporarily. Their stocks are going down like all the others right now.

Buy?, and when?

Any other stocks or ETFs?

cabmandone 03-09-2020 10:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 93nav (Post 10777445)
Even if this virus passes quickly, which is a big if, I rather doubt that people will want to travel very soon. Even if they have the money, which a lot won't.

In the 1970's, the DOW fell from about 1050 to 577. Lets call that an even 50%.

Why won't a lot of people have the money to travel? Was everyone planning to use stock market gains for travel? I'm not hearing about massive layoffs. Interest rates are crazy low which means some will do a cash out refi to put money back into their homes with improvements they've been wanting to do. Others will take that money and travel because plane tickets and rental properties are going to be CRAZY cheap.

cabmandone 03-09-2020 02:55 PM

Sheesus MSFT and AAPL are looking tempting!

Meh.. I looked and AAPL is still WAY off of its 52 week low. I'm sitting it out.

biosurfer1 03-10-2020 06:53 AM

I bought a couple different dividend paying stocks yesterday afternoon and all of them ended lower than what I paid.

Today they are all above what I paid. I've given up on guessing what tomorrow will bring.

Dividends will pay for the rest of my life, and hopefully longer, so who cares:)

Chocaholic 03-10-2020 07:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6 (Post 10777414)
I cancelled trips to Italy and Morocco over the weekend. Everyone I know has canceled travel plans.

With the world economy slowing and U.S. Corps taking on massive debt with cheap money, earnings will decrease substantial 2 to 6 months out, many won't be able to service their debt. That and the combination of businesses going under and the Corp. tax cut, tax revenue will be substantially lower leading to an even higher incredible deficit and debt.

Good times to come.

Yet, Covid is in decline in China and SK. Two of the world's largest suppliers of, well...almost everything. Nope, not ready to sign up for the doom and gloom club just yet. I think by early/mid summer, this will be history and many will do very well as the markets recover.

Shaun @ Tru6 03-10-2020 08:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chocaholic (Post 10778506)
Yet, Covid is in decline in China and SK. Two of the world's largest suppliers of, well...almost everything. Nope, not ready to sign up for the doom and gloom club just yet. I think by early/mid summer, this will be history and many will do very well as the markets recover.

Could be. I'm more concerned about the fundamentals, namely the current admin's addiction to Keynesian economics. It's one thing for government to cut taxes and spend wildly to boost a recessionary economy, quite another when the country has been doing so well for so long. The deficit and debt are more out of control than ever before. Couple that with Corporate America borrowing beyond it's means, we are only a true catastrophe away from serious recession with the Fed's tool box already used up. I hope that covid-19 isn't that catastrophe. But even if it isn't, prudent economic theory should be put in play.

I'm a pragmatist and more conservative than most, true. I guess we all hope for the best.

RWebb 03-10-2020 11:05 AM

a Recession is looming

Sooner or later 03-10-2020 11:37 AM

We don't need stimulus at the current time. People have money but are going to stop spending it while holed up in their bunkers. It depends on how long this drags out on how bad it could become.

pmax 03-10-2020 11:37 AM

Millions.

Remember that.

Sooner or later 03-10-2020 11:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pmax (Post 10778707)
Millions.

"What is the number of Tweets spreading Coronavirus misinformation."

pmax 03-10-2020 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cabmando (Post 10777760)
Sheesus MSFT and AAPL are looking tempting!

Meh.. I looked and AAPL is still WAY off of its 52 week low. I'm sitting it out.

If that's the criteria, BA is at 2 year low.

pmax 03-10-2020 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sooner or later (Post 10778714)
"What is the number of Tweets spreading Coronavirus misinformation."

Billions.

RWebb 03-10-2020 12:24 PM

This looks pretty good:

https://www.flattenthecurve.com/

Sooner or later 03-10-2020 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RWebb (Post 10778756)
This looks pretty good:

https://www.flattenthecurve.com/

Information changes fast. Some of it is dated

"Moreover there are 6 states that still don’t have a single lab ready to carry out the test even if they had one in their hands. "

CDC today
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/testing-in-us.html

This map includes states and territories with one or more laboratories that have successfully verified and are currently using COVID-19 diagnostic tests. As of the evening of March 9, 79 state and local public health labs in 50 states and the District of Columbia have successfully verified and are currently using COVID-19 diagnostic tests.

sammyg2 03-10-2020 01:40 PM

Ostrich.

HardDrive 03-10-2020 01:56 PM

My wife and I are positioning cash to get in, but I don't think we are remotely close to bottom.

cabmandone 03-10-2020 03:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RWebb (Post 10778679)
a Recession is looming

Yeah..... for the last 3 years according to some.

Meanwhile in the real world, phone is still ringing and people are still buying! Just sold two today... with the coronavirus and the market drop from yesterday!


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