121000 cases? Is this reality?

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by KC911

GIGO.....that's what we have for "statistically valid" data points imo...jmho.

In a sense yes. Korea has a lot data and it is nothing of the sort. We have to listen to the experts and they all say the same thing. No vaccine,. At least we easily transmitted as the flu. Far more deadly than the flu for those in a large demographic.

Fauci

https://youtu.be/8A3jiM2FNR8

South Korea's expert

https://youtu.be/gAk7aX5hksU

[masraum]

Originally Posted by KC911

GIGO.....that's what we have for "statistically valid" data points imo...jmho.

Exactly. Are the models using the data out of China to predict?

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by masraum

Exactly. Are the models using the data out of China to predict?

No model will be correct because every country/area/city has different demographics, density, inbound travel, and shut down method and time frame.

We do know that countries that shut down late are facing catastrophic results in specific areas. Italy and Spain are not a situation we want to find ourselves in. Korea and Japan still had their problems even by taking an early and very proactive response to the threat. It now appears even Toyko is taking a harder stance with business shutdowns increasing. South Kores has been having a 100 new cases a day for the last two weeks even with massive tracking and isolation protocols still in place.

[Bob Kontak]

Originally Posted by aigel

100k deaths are possible in the US. That may not be even as bad as it could be without action.

These models are not very precise because the initial data to fit to is very sparse so far, but it gives an idea of what is possible. This was posted on the "main" CV thread:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

I have a science background and understand exponential growth - yet is still shocking to see it happening.

I have been following this model since posted last week.

I understand what is stated in the legend but I can't make sense of the colored "mountain" depicted. Is that simply a range to reflect potential error?

[Sooner or later]

Potential variation. The model cannot predict what methods will be employed to slow growth. Limited action would tend to fall into the top of the range. Heavy handed shutdowns in the lower range.

[tadd]

Maryland just had their first infant loss.

The ‘cleanest’ FOM is deaths. Least amount if competition in the number. Its still climbing fast, and probably will for another week or two.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by tadd

Maryland just had their first infant loss.

The ‘cleanest’ FOM is deaths. Least amount if competition in the number. Its still climbing fast, and probably will for another week or two.

I agree.

[HardDrive]

Originally Posted by Chocaholic

And if countless untested Americans have had it, why no talk of immunity? You should now have antibodies to CV. You fought it off and won. If there are millions like that, the disease will have to decline.

Yet, little or nothing published. Thoughts?

Again, wife is a doctor, and I asked her this exact thing. Answer: we don't know. The issues is that you can't assume that the virus we are dealing with today is the same as the one that was circulating 3 months ago. So if you have already corona, are you immune? Unknown.

But the basics of what you are saying is valid if a person who as had corona is now immune, and was discussed in some circles early on. Tell all the old folks to go home, and have the young people continue as normal. After a few months, the virus will no vector to spread, and die out. The mortality rates convinced officials this was a bad plan.....

[ckelly78z]

How many people suffered through this virus at home without ever contacting a doctor, or getting treatment ? They would be among the numerous statistics that never showed up on government graphs.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by ckelly78z

How many people suffered through this virus at home without ever contacting a doctor, or getting treatment ? They would be among the numerous statistics that never showed up on government graphs.

There are a lot. No doubt.

We DO know the amount of cases filling hospitals that were late to implement change. About 15% of all currently known US cases end up in the hospital. When an area approaches 1/2% of the population in a localized area the hospitals get overwhelmed and mortality climbs.

NYC is at .25%
Lombardi, Italy was at .35%.

Some areas of NYC and Lombardi are far higher than those numbers and that is what leads to the excessive case load.

[Bob Kontak]

I'm thinking Michigan is going to push California to the number four spot in a day or three.

Three counties surrounding Detroit and Detroit City account for the bulk. Medical infrastructure?

https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163-520743--,00.html

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[dad911]

Originally Posted by unclebilly

The local news just reported 121,000 US cases of Covid-19. Is this real?

We have 621 here in Alberta (2/3 are in Calgary) and they only reported 548 so who knows if their US numbers are high or low?

Having my closest neighbors 3/4 of a mile away never felt so good...

I strongly suspect most numbers are under-reported, or less than actual due to testing. I also suspect China numbers are drastically under reported.

That's why I look at deceased numbers. https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Canada tracking USA, doubling approx every 4-5 days.

[gordner]

Originally Posted by Chocaholic

And if countless untested Americans have had it, why no talk of immunity? You should now have antibodies to CV. You fought it off and won. If there are millions like that, the disease will have to decline.

Yet, little or nothing published. Thoughts?

Not always the case, the common cold for example. There was a report of a Chinese man that had it and got it again a couple months later, was reported for a bit then kind of died in the news cycle not sure of the veracity.

[tdw28210]

Originally Posted by Bob Kontak

I'm thinking Michigan is going to push California to the number four spot in a day or three.

Three counties surrounding Detroit and Detroit City account for the bulk. Medical infrastructure?

https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163-520743--,00.html

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

as noted in the main thread..California's numbers are basically useless. They have a 65k test backlog (no results coupled with degrading samples). New York has triple that completed.