US CV19 numbers are crap (I'm sure it's global)

[Jim Richards]

Originally Posted by McLovin

So much for lockdown being only to “flatten the curve.” LA County is going to milk this for as long as possible.

Yes, because they desperately want to loose tax revenues from shuttered businesses and out of work individuals. They’ve been dreaming about this for years. Isn’t it great?

[dewolf]

Originally Posted by masraum

Of course, if a large portion of the deaths aren't counted because they weren't diagnosed or tested positive, then you're death numbers are as useless as the rest.


Exactly, the idea that people stopped dying of CV19 there is ridiculous

They did stop dying of CV19....they have started dying by being cremated alive.

[McLovin]

Originally Posted by Jim Richards

Yes, because they desperately want to loose tax revenues from shuttered businesses and out of work individuals. They’ve been dreaming about this for years. Isn’t it great?

You sound like a capitalist pig 🐷

[upsscott]

Originally Posted by red-beard

This morning, they were touting how well California has done in the Crisis. Not trying to disparage California, but if the testing/number are crap, well then no real conclusion can be made.

It does look like we have done more testing than any other country in the world and are on track to probably test more than the rest of the world combined.

To me, the "real" test will be the antibody test. Find out who has HAD the virus and is now immune. The test uses a finger prick and takes 15 minutes.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/simple-blood-test-covid-19-antibodies-reopen-economy/story?id=70024837

Living in Ca I agree with your point. It seems to me that the only people getting tests where I live are people sick enough to be admitted to the hospital. I personally know of three people who are symptomatic who were sent home to isolate at home with no test given.

[Jim Richards]

Originally Posted by mclovin

you sound like a capitalist pig 🐷

[jyl]

I look at hospitalization numbers, for the states that report it. More timely than death, more reliable than cases. Then figure what % of symptomatic are hospitalized, what % of cases are symptomatic, time lag, and back into actual cases. Crude but I suspect it’s somewhere in the ballpark.

[livi]

Antibody tests may very well turn out to be very difficult to interpret for a number of reasons.
The usual problem with low sensitivity and specificity, in other words the risk of false negative and positiv results with the test kit itself.
Even worse, we don´t know exactly to what degree the immune system reacts to this virus. So called antibodies are proteins of the immunoglobulin class, divided into different groups depending on their function. With infections we mostly produce Ig M and Ig G. IgM is the first respons, produced rapidly and disappearing within a few weeks. Simultaneously we start production of IgG with a slower initial respons but for many typ of virus and bacteria we will then keep them for a long time, sometimes lifelong. They will constitute a key part of our immune systems memory of that specific microorganism (together with a complex array of cells and other parts of the system).
Whenever we reencounter that microorganism it will emediately be recognized and attacked. This is immunity and the proteins we are looking for in so called antibody tests.
Problem is we do not know to what extent our immunsystem produces these Ig G antibodies when we are infekted by this virus and, vitally, when it does, for how long it will keep up this memory. For many common cold viruses we react with a short lived burst of Ig production that disappears within months. After that there are no antibodies to be found and we are open for reeinfection.
Maybe the antibody production of this virus last 6 months, 2 years, for life. We dont know. Herd immunity demands at least a somewhat longer individual immunity.
A random large antibody test full scale population wise will accordingly, if we are unlucky, only paint a scetchy picture of a actual situation when the tests are performed. Maybe at that point i happens to look like a large part are immune, but already in a year many will be succeptible to infection again.
We know sadly little of this so far.
Sorry for the long rant.

[KFC911]

Thank you Markus....

Nice "rant" imo.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by aigel

Somehow we have very high expectation to get good data out of every state, country and local government on a daily basis. Isn't this asking for a lot? Who does all this counting? Especially once numbers start taking off!

That's a good question. We have a different method of counting in every state. Even if states want to count in their own way, the CDC should have a standardized national system that every state must report to. There can be an "unknown" metric for states can't/won't report out of hospital cases and deaths. At least we would use what the states do know. I don't have a lot faith in it but I do hope state health departments are gathering data and are just too busy responding to the emergency to report it. A nationally standardized, "fill in the box" report would be helpful at this point.

[Sooner or later]

I agree. There there should be a national standard.

[livi]

Originally Posted by KC911

Thank you Markus....

Nice "rant" imo.

[VINMAN]

My office took 39 CV deaths yesterday, just in a 14hr period. Not counting the other usual cases we take in. We are beyond overwhelmed. Our refrigerators are packed. we have a reefer trailer coming today.


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[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by VINMAN

My office took 39 CV deaths yesterday, just in a 14hr period. Not counting the other usual cases we take in. We are beyond overwhelmed. Our refrigerators are packed. we have a reefer trailer coming today.


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Sorry to hear. You have another tough week ahead of you. Be strong, you are almost over the hump.

[VINMAN]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Sorry to hear. You have another tough week ahead of you. Be strong, you are almost over the hump.

Thank you.

As far as reporting numbers go, here in NJ, all CV deaths are reported. Whether it is in a medical facility or occurring at home.


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[Por_sha911]

THIS POST EDITED TO HELP SOMEONE UNDERSTAND I WAS RESPONDING TO THE OP POST:

Originally Posted by masraum

If you start looking at these numbers, various totals as well as the various totals per million, you start to realize that the numbers are crap.

91.8% of people who have an agenda to prove a lie with numbers and statistics.
(sorry, couldn't resist)

[VINMAN]

Originally Posted by Por_sha911

91.8% of people who have an agenda to prove lie with numbers and statistics.
(sorry, couldn't resist)

Are you saying I'm full of sh#t??


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[KFC911]

Originally Posted by VINMAN

Are you saying I'm full of sh#t??


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Vinman, I'm 99.9999978356% sure that Joe isn't saying that....naw, make that 100%.

Take care of yourself...I can't imagine what it's like for you guys.

[93nav]

Stay as safe as you can, in a very bad situation. Good luck.

Thanks for posting the info on your local situation.

Originally Posted by VINMAN

My office took 39 CV deaths yesterday, just in a 14hr period. Not counting the other usual cases we take in. We are beyond overwhelmed. Our refrigerators are packed. we have a reefer trailer coming today.


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[JeremyD]

From a stats standpoint - these numbers blow. Inconsistent reporting and criteria. Actually this site actually gives sources and gives grades for state data - https://covidtracking.com/data

But the general population (and apparently 100% of journalists) have never heard of sample size, regression analysis, blah blah blah.

[flatbutt]

Originally Posted by VINMAN

Thank you.

As far as reporting numbers go, here in NJ, all CV deaths are reported. Whether it is in a medical facility or occurring at home.


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todays numbers

There have been 2,183 deaths related to coronavirus in New Jersey. Officials reported 251 new deaths Saturday
Of the statewide deaths, 58% were male and 42% were female. One percent were less than 30 years of age, while 45% were over the age of 80. Of those who died, 48% had underlying medical conditions.
The racial breakdown of those who have died in New Jersey is: 64% white, 20% black, 17% were Hispanic, 6% Asian and less than one percent Hawaiian or Pacific Islander, Persichilli said.