When Are The Collectible/Other Price Drops?

[jyl]

At the risk of being an evil vulture, I am thinking there will be lower prices for some stuff I am looking to buy. However, I'm not seeing markedly lower prices on eBay for bike, espresso, electronics, camera, etc stuff. What do you think - will we see significant price declines? What about for stuff generally, not limited to weirdo eBay things? Cars, motorcycles, spoons?

[pwd72s]

I never have been a collector really. But I have bought stiff that became collectable because I tend to hang on to things I like. This to explain that I only casually follow markets on things I have an interest in.

I can say that the serious pool cue dealers/collectors, Szamboni, Balabushka, Paradise, etc..the high end stuff, have been grumbling about falling prices for a year or better. Dealers complaining of having to sell for little profit or even losses...normally "hot" high demand cues from famous makers sitting unsold for months...

[onewhippedpuppy]

Based on recent prices for cars on BaT, there’s still plenty of people with money. Anybody that buys a car as an investment is a fool, and I think the speculators and investors have been driving 911 prices up for several years now. So if they take it in the shorts, I really don’t give a damn.

[pwd72s]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

Based on recent prices for cars on BaT, there’s still plenty of people with money. Anybody that buys a car as an investment is a fool, and I think the speculators and investors have been driving 911 prices up for several years now. So if they take it in the shorts, I really don’t give a damn.

Couldn't agree more.

Rethinking my post, I really should have said that the collectable cue dealers seem to be complaining of business being slow, less demand, more than actual price drops.
If they want a quick sale, they'll cut a price...

[McLovin]

3-6 months, with bottom in 24-36 months.
Same as last time.
Human behavior is fairly predictable.

[MRM]

Paul, I think what you're reporting has to do with the demographics of pool accessory collectors. Like many non-electronic sports, not as many new fans are coming into the sport as are leaving it. All the baby boomer hobbies and collectibles are seeing the same cycle. The current economic downturn might accelerate the drop in prices, but the drop is inevitable.

A recession will have to last a long time or be really sharp and broad-based to really affect the mid to lower tier of collectibles. People are being more cautious with their money, but the people who still have jobs and have been able to adjust to working from home, the situation is mostly a strange inconvenience. They're still spending money, but will probably save more and cautiously spend less. For those who have been directly affected, the situation is catastrophic, but there hasn't been enough time for that impact to have spread throughout the economy. It will take several months before unpaid rent causes landlords to default on mortgages, for unpaid mortgages to cause stock market losses, and stock market losses to hit those who invest the money that greases the skids of the economy.

How bad it will get is anyone's guess. It might be a "v" shaped recovery and by fall we're all wondering what the fuss was all about. But it might not be. In the meantime, keep your powder dry.

[pwd72s]

I tend to agree with you on the age demographics. Pool is being replaced with video games. I'm a bit older than the baby boomers, so much of my thinking is influenced with a lot of "been there-done that". Especially when it comes to collector cars...me remembering what they actually drove like new.

Hell, we're in a recession...just look at the numbers of unemployment claims. Whether or not it will become a full fledged world wide depression is the question.
Powder dry? Let's just say I'm not interested into dipping into my cash for anything collectable and I'm not getting back into equities at this time. Glad I was pretty much out of equities when the virus crash happened. Just never trusted the QE thing as viable economic strategy.

[jyl]

Let me know when the P7s and FALs get cheap :-)

[rusnak]

If the real economy collapses or suffers a partial collapse, then you'll see the price of things drop, but money will have no value. In the meanwhile, the expectation of most seems to take the view that Trump will re-start the economy. I think the monied Libs are secretly and quietly hoping that happens, but they won't say it publicly.

[Crowbob]

if?

[rusnak]

^ For example, when/if oil production is shut down, or a refinery is shut down, then the price of fuel is going to go sky high. If Boeing goes BK, then the cost of air travel will cause airlines to go bust. If a major automaker shuts down, etc etc.

[Crowbob]

I meant it as a rhetorical 'IF?'. It's looking very bad. But I'm a raincloud in a rainbow world.

[smokintr6]

Originally Posted by jyl

At the risk of being an evil vulture, I am thinking there will be lower prices for some stuff I am looking to buy. However, I'm not seeing markedly lower prices on eBay for bike, espresso, electronics, camera, etc stuff. What do you think - will we see significant price declines? What about for stuff generally, not limited to weirdo eBay things? Cars, motorcycles, spoons?

What would ever cause spoons to go bust? When money is worthless, spoons are it.

[Crowbob]

I don't think prices will drop until all speculation about the economy is done. In the meantime, I don't think anybody is buying anything right now irregardless* of price

[rusnak]

Originally Posted by Crowbob

I don't think prices will drop until all speculation about the economy is done. In the meantime, I don't think anybody is buying anything right now irregardless* of price

I agree, it looks bad. Made worse by this being an election year, and the politicians are playing their usual B.S. games. By the time it becomes obvious that the economy is the big worry and not the virus, it will be too late.

[jyl]

I recall some nice deals in the 2008/09 recession. On guns too.

[pwd72s]

Originally Posted by jyl

I recall some nice deals in the 2008/09 recession. On guns too.

When times are tense, guns become more valuable...

[tabs]

Originally Posted by pwd72s

When times are tense, guns become more valuable...

Spoon shops are OUT OF INVENTORY..
Spoons at auctions are selling for robust prices.

People sense this is worse than before..

I am tired of wishful thinking that amounts to stupidity.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by jyl

I recall some nice deals in the 2008/09 recession. On guns too.

The day the DOW was down 1000 pts in oct 08..someone bought a Colt Walker for 975k at James Julias auction

[jyl]

http://machinegunpriceguide.com/html/price_guides.html

Cool site and a guy can dream