The "Second Wave"

[legion]

We have 7 cases in my county. None of them are in any hospital. Yet according to the experts above, I'm to stay locked in my house indefinitely because of that. There is zero evidence for the claims that led to the lockdown. The actual death rate experienced is an order of magnitude lower than what was claimed. This whole thing has been grossly unconstitutional and I think some elected officials should be made to pay. Quarantines are for keeping sick people in their houses, not healthy people. It's like locking up law-abiding citizens because officials fear a crime wave.

[flatbutt]

Originally Posted by speeder

Since widespread Covid19 testing seems to be a pipe dream in the U.S., I propose instead that we give everyone in the U.S. a quick IQ test and let the stupidest people decide what we do next. They can spread the policies on social media and message boards, plus have one major network at their disposal.

How does that work for you, legion?

So, Congress?

[Crowbob]

Trust the experts and their fears?

How can we trust when the experts don’t have any idea what this virus is, where it came from, where it’s been, where it’s going, who it effects, how it affects them, how to treat it, how to test for it, who has it, who had it or how many people have died from it?

The fear is a different story. However, the fact that the pols are pushing it makes me very skeptical. I keep looking at who is benefitting from this ‘crisis’ and if it fits any kind of pattern.

In addition, nobody questions the tragedy and horror that comes with succumbing to this horrible disease. The question is what do we do about it. The experts and their fears are telling us to destroy the country. That cannot happen.

[legion]

Not to mention the excuses for stripping rights from citizens are being constantly revised. First we had to flatten the curve, but the curve is so flat that judging any benefit is impossible. Then we were told that the peak is yet to come, despite evidence that the peak was weeks ago. Now we are being told that there is a second wave coming. I'm sure there will be a new excuse next week.

[aigel]

Yes, may be good to listen to the docs on the board on this.

I also don't think it takes a shutdown to empty out hospitals and doctors offices. Everyone I know is deferring elective procedures, shutdown or not. Or go to the dentist?

Personally, I do NOT currently want to get this virus, neither do I want my family and friends (old AND young) to get it. And yes, I will put my money where my mouth is, if I lose out financially because of the shelter in place, so be it. I'd rather have half my net worth than half a lung.

We may not be getting a vaccine soon, but if you get this 6 months from now, the virus will be much better understood and treatments will be significantly better.

G

Edit: I am glad we have the shelter in place. I would not want to go to work right now. My spouse quit BTW in an essential business after my evaluation of their safety protocol showed it was too risky. Sure enough, several people at the company contracted the virus. Dodged a bullet there.

[masraum]

I was curious, so I took the stats from the worldometer site the other day for the US and the states. The numbers presented are mostly raw numbers and can be difficult to compare.

In the US, there have been ~800k positivi cases and ~42k deaths.

That works out to a 5.4% of cases resulting in death. ~.2% of the population of the US has been confirmed positive. Of the folks that have been tested in the US ~20% have been positive. And ~1.2% of the US pop has been tested.

US 5.4% death, 20% test positive
NY 7.5% death, 40% test positive
NJ 4.9% death, 49% test positive
CA 3.6% death, 12% test positive
TX 2.5% death, 10% test positive

Highest death rate, Michigan at 7.7%, lowest is SD at 2%.

Just now, I checked the world stats.
World, 7% death
Spain, 10.4% death, 19.5% test positive
Italy, 13.4% death, 12.4% test positive
France, 13.2% death, 34.1% test positive
Germany, 3.4% death, 8.6% test positive
UK, 13.6% death, 23.8% test positive
Belgium, 14.9% death, 24.4% test positive
India, 3.2% death, 4.4% test positive
Netherlands, 11.6% death, 20.% test positive
Russia, .9% death, 2.6% test positive
Sweden, 12.1% death, 16.9% test positive

[legion]

Estimates are the between 40% - 80% of the people who get this virus are asymptomatic. In other words, for most people, it is a virus that shows no symptoms and they just get over it without ever knowing. For most people, it is less severe than a cold. If you are over 50 or have respiratory issues, there your chances of experiencing more severe symptoms go up with your age and/or severity of your respiratory issues. Something like 98% of the people who get this virus recover with no lingering issues.

[masraum]

Deaths in the UK from the 1918 flu.

[URY914]

Originally Posted by legion

Evidence of social distancing working would have been hospitals being at capacity with coronavirus patients. Instead, hospitals are empty. The predictions were off by an order of magnitude. They predicted the Black Death and we got a seasonal flu.

Hospitals are empty because selective surgeries were cancelled.

[legion]

Originally Posted by URY914

Hospitals are empty because selective surgeries were cancelled.

We were told that they all had to be cancelled so that hospitals would not be overwhelmed. Locally, we had 3 people in the hospital with severe coronavirus at the peak--spread between 2 hospitals. Business could have continued as usual and this would have had zero impact.

[island911]

Originally Posted by flatbutt

So, Congress?

AH.

Here I thought speeder was promoting that everyone listen to speeder.

Thanks.

[Roswell]

Here is a nice easy to understand article based on scientific research on lockdowns and their effectiveness, or lack of, in fighting the spread of pandemics.

https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62572/

[island911]

Originally Posted by speeder

Yep. I'm getting tired of all these infectious disease specialists and medical people w all their fancy degrees thinking that they are smarter than everyone else.

What you are missing is that the infectious disease specialists and medical people are all trying to figure out this NEW virus as well.

EVERYONE is trying to assess the threat level of this pandemic.

You don't need to be Nicola Tesla, or a meteorologist to know if it's acceptable to go on golf course on a cloudy day. Similarly you don't have to be a infectious disease specialists to assess the numbers coming out on this virus propagation.

We all get that you want to demean people here as being too stupid to comment. Got a mirror?

[Roswell]

Originally Posted by masraum

Deaths in the UK from the 1918 flu.

Hmmm.....I may be wrong, but I believe medical research has made much progress since 1918. Is there a more recent example you could use? Maybe something since the discovery of penicillin?

[island911]

Originally Posted by Roswell

Here is a nice easy to understand article based on scientific research on lockdowns and their effectiveness, or lack of, in fighting the spread of pandemics.

https://www.thepublicdiscourse.com/2020/04/62572/

If they do work, they are working too well. Hospitals are going broke because they don't have enough sick people.

The WHOLE PREMISE of lock-downs was to "flatten the curve" in order to "Save the hospitals" from being overwhelmed.

What about being underwhelmed?

[island911]

I will note this; Even before the lock-down, people here - near ground-zero for CV in the US-- people took drastic action on their own, at an individual level to avoid viral transmission.

Where I work, the amount of hand sanitizer quadrupled, and Lysol wipes were on every other desk and in every office. I watched Microsoft traffic all but disappear. Restaurants usually packed over the lunch hour had maybe 1/3 occupancy during the same time. Again, this was all BEFORE any official shut down.

[legion]

Originally Posted by island911

I will note this; Even before the lock-down, people here - near ground-zero for CV in the US-- people took drastic action on their own, at an individual level to avoid viral transmission.

Where I work, the amount of hand sanitizer quadrupled, and Lysol wipes were on every other desk and in every office. I watched Microsoft traffic all but disappear. Restaurants usually packed over the lunch hour had maybe 1/3 occupancy during the same time. Again, this was all BEFORE any official shut down.

Exactly, people are free to take action based on their personal risk level, risk preference, and personal circumstances. Most people will do what is right for them.

[Tobra]

Originally Posted by URY914

Hospitals are empty because selective surgeries were cancelled.

There is substantially more to it, cancelling elective surgeries would not empty the ER.

[masraum]

Originally Posted by Roswell

Hmmm.....I may be wrong, but I believe medical research has made much progress since 1918. Is there a more recent example you could use? Maybe something since the discovery of penicillin?

Why, is penicillin an effect treatment for the current virus?

[aigel]

We canceled several elective medical and dental procedures in my family late February weeks before any shelter in place. The county and state shelter in place orders have nothing to do with people not wanting to go to the hospital. Neighbors had an injured kid and had to go to the urgent clinic. It was empty. Nobody keeps you from going there, it is an essential operation, but people are going to stay home if they at all can.

G