The "Second Wave"

[URY914]

Originally Posted by 93nav

Care to give a report on the situation at your hospital? Up to you, as detail or not as you feel like.

I hear that some the beaches by Jacksonville have opened up.

Thanks

The predictions based on first models which we were looking at said we were going to have 4500 infected patients. This what about a month ago and is based on our roughly 30% market share in the area. With that info we went into high gear to get ready. Last week the model said it was going to be less than a 10th of that. We've spent millions buying materials and building temporary "field hospitals" on our empty shell floors at three of our hospitals. Our design was approved by the US Corp of Engineers and the State of FL. We also prepped our existing rooms to add a second patient to each and every room. We HOPE to be reimbursed by FEMA which will take years to get. We're still waiting on FEMA hurricane dollars from 3 years ago.

Opening the beaches made the news every where it seems. It was really needed actually. You can only walk, swim and surf. Keep your distance from each other. The wind is always blowing. Very low risk of infecting others.

[Sooner or later]

Oklahoma is using the number currently hospitalized. They want a drop over 2 weeks. On track for May 1st loosening. Most elective surgery to restart Friday. The rest on Monday.

[Tobra]

There is too much unknown and unknowable with this deal. Seems pretty clear we over reacted, but that is the direction you want to miss on pandemics.

Better to throw it in the dirt and go to ball 1 than make a mistake where the Bambino goes yard, and the Series is over, so to speak.

The response sort of reminds me of a woman with a funky, squamous cell carcinoma looking thing sticking off the inside of her heel. Bothered her for quite a while, remote history of injury. I see a funky looking painful growth that rings the WTF is that bell, it gets excised and put in jar for someone to slice up and look at the specimen using a microscope that costs more than a new limo for the Queen of England. If the first pathologist sees anything that makes them think maybe that looks off, they have a second person review it, to be for sure for sure, like a valley girl taking two birth control pills

You don't want a nasty scar on the inside of your heel, not if you plan on walking on that foot anyway, so you have to stay off it. I excise the growth and put her on crutches for a few weeks. In case you never used crutches, it is a bit of a hardship. Prematurely walk on it, scar will not likely be as unobtrusive, or even can open up. Biopsy results come back negative, no cancer, which I would have taken as good news, were I the patient. Lady is more than somewhat bent out of shape about having to be on crutches for nothing. She had no idea how bad that news had the potential of being. About the size of 4 or 5 quarters on the inside of her heel. It looked really funky and not good, was inflamed and painful, turned out to be benign. She settled down pretty quick when I explained that she did not get it cut off because it was cancer, she got it cut off because it looked like cancer to someone who has a good eye for how cancer looks. Sometimes good news is just good news, even if you go through some pain and inconvenience to get it.

I am troubled by how blithely The Constitution is brushed aside though

Originally Posted by URY914

But telling people you better be missing a limb to get into our ER will keep them epmpty.
Funny how people don't show up at your ER when you tell them you have 30 covid-19 patients.

That is funny, is it happening anywhere though?

[Aerkuld]

Originally Posted by legion

We have 7 cases in my county. None of them are in any hospital. Yet according to the experts above, I'm to stay locked in my house indefinitely because of that. There is zero evidence for the claims that led to the lockdown. The actual death rate experienced is an order of magnitude lower than what was claimed. This whole thing has been grossly unconstitutional and I think some elected officials should be made to pay. Quarantines are for keeping sick people in their houses, not healthy people. It's like locking up law-abiding citizens because officials fear a crime wave.

Serious question - so, how do you know you're not carrying the virus?

[legion]

Originally Posted by Aerkuld

Serious question - so, how do you know you're not carrying the virus?

So what if I am? This virus is less serious than a common cold to the vast majority of those infected. A common cold can kill the certain people, but I'm not expected to isolate when I have one. We don't lock down the whole country during flu season.

This virus will be in our population from this point forward. Thinking that we can somehow control it is pure arrogance.

[RWebb]

Originally Posted by legion

We were told that the ONLY way to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed was to isolate. Instead, most hospitals in the country are grossly underwhelmed and are laying off staff. Hospitals are setting records for empty beds right now.

what county?

[Aerkuld]

Originally Posted by legion

So what if I am? This virus is less serious than a common cold to the vast majority of those infected. A common cold can kill the certain people, but I'm not expected to isolate when I have one. We don't lock down the whole country during flu season.

This virus will be in our population from this point forward. Thinking that we can somehow control it is pure arrogance.

The question I asked was, how do you know you're not carrying the virus, and you admit you don't know. Yet you also said in your original post, and I quote;

"Quarantines are for keeping sick people in their houses, not healthy people."

But you don't know whether you're sick or healthy.

I totally get you're point, but until we know how widespread the problem is we need to slow down the infection rate. I agree, we can't keep everyone locked in their homes for ever. Hopefully though, while people are having their movement restricted, we can get a clearer idea of what's going on and how to treat it. Look at how much we've learned since this started. We still have a long way to go, but we're starting to find effective treatments, learned about incubation periods, and asymptomatic transmission, etc.
Hindsight is a precise science. It hasn't proven to be as bad as was initially thought in most cases, but what if this had been far more dangerous? The whole thing could be out of control before we knew it.

[island911]

Originally Posted by Aerkuld

The question I asked was, how do you know you're not carrying the virus, and you admit you don't know. Yet you also said in your original post, and I quote;

"Quarantines are for keeping sick people in their houses, not healthy people."

But you don't know whether you're sick or healthy....

You would be wise to not conflate sick/ healthy with carrying/not carrying.

People know when they are sick. Sick is when it is called disease. Break that down dis-ease.

[island911]

Aerkuld, your car could be carrying this virus.
Should you scrap it?
I mean, we don't know about your car.
We better scrap it to be certain.
Otherwise you might park near me and I may want to touch your car.

[Crowbob]

"Look at how much we've learned since this started."








Did you miss it? Look again.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

“Never let a crisis go to waste”

This very quickly turned from:

A Curiosity
to Denial
to Mockery
to Concern
to Fear and Hoarding
to Panic
to Genuinely Trying to Protect Others
to Opportunism / Election Year Stunts
to Control
to Rampant Abuse of Power
to Authoritarianism

Where does it go from here? That’s up to us.

[Aerkuld]

Originally Posted by island911

You would be wise to not conflate sick/ healthy with carrying/not carrying.

People know when they are sick. Sick is when it is called disease. Break that down dis-ease.

You'd be wise to think about what quarantine is for. It makes bugger all difference how someone is feeling. If they're carrying, they're carrying and contagious. In other words, infected IS sick and if you're not displaying symptoms, either you will be soon, or you'll overcome it (hopefully) and no longer be a carrier. Quarantine is intended to span that period, remove the doubt, and reduce the risk of transmission. Period.

Your other 'argument' works the same. If you have any object which may have been contaminated then you lock it away until the virus cells die. If I had a car which may have been smothered in the virus I'd shut it in the garage and not go near it. Nobody is suggesting shooting patients with the virus, or scrapping a car in your analogy. Parking it where people can touch it is EXACTLY what you're trying to argue for with not having quarantine for people.

[legion]

I've been in quarantine for 6 weeks. That s 2-3 times the incubation period for the virus. I'm being told not to expect to be freed until June. In March, I was told April, in April, May, then June. The excuses keep shifting. The is nothing in the federal or any state Constitution that authorizes any governor to order people into to their houses and unilaterally close selected businesses indefinitely. Yet here we are.

[jyl]

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/208354

Similar debates took place 100 years ago. Some cities didn’t do much NPI (that’s the epidemiologist term for social distancing), or waited to do it, or lifted it quickly, or . . . and there actually a lot of data about the outcomes. The data isn’t textbook clean of course, but the pattern is clear enough.

I read about what my city, Portland, did back then. The first case was 10/3/1918, NPI was applied, then lifted in November, everyone partied (end of WW1, ya know), things got a lot worse, NPI went back on, virus finally faded away in January.

NPI back then was less effective than now. Dance hall, churches, theaters were closed, but streetcars kept running, bars and barbers were open. There wasn’t Amazon, there might have been grocery delivery. Masks were controversial, eventually got used but quite late. And of course there was no testing, no treatment, no one knew what a virus was, being in hospital basically meant a bed and someone watching you and mopping your brow.

Even with the weak NPI, there was a decent relationship between NPI timing and severity, and death peak timing and total deaths.

I think many states have been very effective at NPI this time around. At the risk of bragging, Oregon has held deaths down to only 78 and hospitalizations to only 488 (although, that means 16% of the hospitalized die - erp). We have had some flag toting protestors, but 82% of the population support the social distancing so it will be eased and lifted based on criteria being met, not protests and pressure. However, the state hasn’t done a great job publicizing what the criteria are - they have stated them, but not gotten the word out very well. They need to do s better job communicating.

Other states don’t seem to be doing NPI that effectively. I mean beyond the obvious NY, NJ, MA, etc. Those curves aren’t looking too flat to me. Still, some of them will open up the critical life sustaining parts of the economy - like bowling alleys and beaches. I’d expect history to repeat itself.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by jyl

Other states don’t seem to be doing NPI that effectively. I mean beyond the obvious NY, NJ, MA, etc. Those curves aren’t looking too flat to me. Still, some of them will open up the critical life sustaining parts of the economy - like bowling alleys and beaches. I’d expect history to repeat itself.

We are flattening nicely here but will be on lockdown for weeks to come to ensure total success.

Our governor Charlie Baker has been a fantastic leader throughout this entire ordeal. Listen to his press conferences every day. I don't associate with whackjobs so I don't know if there's any rebellion brewing but I have only heard overwhelming support for him and his handling of the virus.

[Aerkuld]

Originally Posted by legion

I've been in quarantine for 6 weeks. That s 2-3 times the incubation period for the virus. I'm being told not to expect to be freed until June. In March, I was told April, in April, May, then June. The excuses keep shifting. The is nothing in the federal or any state Constitution that authorizes any governor to order people into to their houses and unilaterally close selected businesses indefinitely. Yet here we are.

Absolutely! I whole heartedly agree with you. Yet with everyone supposedly in quarantine the virus is still managing to spread. The problem as I see it is, while a lot of us are being responsible there's still a considerable proportion breaking the rules. If not, this thing would be done. I suspect THAT is who we should be criticizing if anyone.

Even so, I'm not saying this doesn't suck, but look at where we are in California with regard to infection and death rate per 1M population and where most other states are. CA is something like 30th on the list. The states below CA are sparsely populated, fly-over states, as are some of the ones above. But for a state with the population density of CA to be where it is must show that this worked. If anyone really thinks this is a waste of time, do they fancy moving to Queens or Brooklyn? I'm guessing not.

I'm sure the state and federal governments don't really like this either. Very few working or spending money means their income is drastically reduced, while their expenditure has likely gone through the roof.

Honestly, I'm not sure what the answer is, and I'm glad this isn't my problem to deal with.

To be fully transparent, this really isn't affecting me much at all which does affect my opinion. I've been working from home since before the county order. We have enough work to keep us busy for a long time. That does make a big difference and I sincerely sympathize with those with businesses who are less fortunate.

Here's to you gentlemen! Let's hope we can get back to a new normal soon.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by Aerkuld

The question I asked was, how do you know you're not carrying the virus, and you admit you don't know. Yet you also said in your original post, and I quote;

"Quarantines are for keeping sick people in their houses, not healthy people."

But you don't know whether you're sick or healthy.

I totally get you're point, but until we know how widespread the problem is we need to slow down the infection rate. I agree, we can't keep everyone locked in their homes for ever. Hopefully though, while people are having their movement restricted, we can get a clearer idea of what's going on and how to treat it. Look at how much we've learned since this started. We still have a long way to go, but we're starting to find effective treatments, learned about incubation periods, and asymptomatic transmission, etc.
Hindsight is a precise science. It hasn't proven to be as bad as was initially thought in most cases, but what if this had been far more dangerous? The whole thing could be out of control before we knew it.

A voice of reason in the forest of paranoia. Thank you.

[legion]

Originally Posted by Aerkuld

I'm sure the state and federal governments don't really like this either. Very few working or spending money means their income is drastically reduced, while their expenditure has likely gone through the roof.

Some love the new power they have granted themselves. And we citizens are not holding government accountable for infringing on our rights.

[island911]

Originally Posted by Aerkuld

Absolutely! I whole heartedly agree with you. Yet with everyone supposedly in quarantine the virus is still managing to spread. The problem as I see it is, while a lot of us are being responsible there's still a considerable proportion breaking the rules. If not, this thing would be done. I suspect THAT is who we should be criticizing if anyone.
...

oye.

Just go ahead and ignore all of the vectors and imagine that "broken rules" are to blame.

Sheesh, did you not see the story about the woman who put herself in complete lock down, never even went to to the grocery store. Week 3 she got CV from the food delivery. --no 'rules broken.'

[masraum]

Originally Posted by ckissick

Back to the 2nd wave issue. Something puzzles me. The experts have lately been saying they don't think the warm weather this summer will have the beneficial effect of slowing down the spread of the disease. This is made evident by the fact that southern hemisphere and tropical countries have been impacted similarly to northern hemisphere countries. Wouldn't this greatly reduce the likelihood of a 2nd wave? It should just keep chugging along regardless of climate.

That makes sense. In previous flu pandemics, the reason for the waves was probably greatly due to the fact that 1, the flu thrives in a cold dry environment and 2 while there has always been global travel, it has never been as cheap and accessible as it is these days.

So, if CV19 doesn't care if it's cold and dry or hot and wet, then it shouldn't surge in particular times or climates. Although, with global travel what it is in these times (when travel isn't locked down) that shouldn't matter much since it's almost always cold and dry somewhere, and folks are probably always going to/from those spots to other spots.