How many weeks do we buy the old and infirm?

[Cajundaddy]

... And all those 40-60 yr old otherwise healthy "low risk" folks who catch this thing and it turns ugly? F*ck em. Too bad, so sad your luck has run out and Darwin has spoken. We don't need your kind anymore in this brave new 2020 world. One less mouth to feed and I gotta get back to my hockey season.

[island911]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

... And all those 40-60 yr old otherwise healthy "low risk" folks who catch this thing and it turns ugly, f*ck em. Too bad, so sad your luck has run out and Darwin has spoken. We don't need your kind anymore in this brave new 2020 world. I gotta get back to my hockey season.

There it is again. The chant that if we don't fk our economy we WILL be killing people with indifference.

This is Pollyanna Bull-squirt. But keep on signaling your superior virtue. ...stupid hockey fans. (?)

[gregpark]

Keeping people alive past normal expectancy has been a multi billion dollar industry for private pockets (nursing homes, pharmaceuticals) while sucking the communal general funds (SS) dry for decades....and now this.

[aigel]

We only have had this conversation about 18 times in different threads with the same people posting the same thing over and over. And now we start a thread every day on it too? Is this a competition who posts the same thing most often, does that person "WIN" the internet argument? Has this become political? PARF crowd frothing at the mouth because now there is a new audience and not just Dipso they can do their circle jerk with? Haha!

G

[GH85Carrera]

Certainly the Kung Flu hit the senior citizens hard. My accountant reminded his 20 something son that on the US Navy carrier Teddy Roosevelt, was full of young healthy very physically fit men and women with a hospital staff on the ship, and several people have died. It is not just the boomers dying from it.

It is almost funny that a while back when the measles outbreak was in full force many of the young and invulnerable people were suddenly worried, and thinking it was unfair that boomers were immune.

[island911]

aigel...

Originally Posted by island911

This "Flattening of the curve." With all the cool math models out there which ones are projecting the number of weeks added to the lives of the old and infirm?

I mean, that is the crux of this. Without a vaccine all we are doing is buying the old and infirm some time. How much time? (on average)

..., if you have seen any such math model I would really appreciate seeing it.

This is what I am looking for. Seriously.

This number must exist in the "curve flattening" math models.

[Mahler9th]

"Without a vaccine all we are doing is buying the old and infirm some time. "

That is apparently your opinion. I completely disagree.

The shelter in place orders have not destroyed the economy. The virus has done the damage. The non-human virus. It does not give a crap what you or I think or believe.

For some folks, it seems apparent that they prefer to focus on deaths and death rates. In my opinion, in some instances, they do so to just focus their arguments one way or the other on a narrow family of considerations. For example, either we let people die or we kill the global economy. Then some of those folks narrow down even further and try to bolster their case that statistically those that die or old anyway and that the only benefit of the stay at home orders so prevalent in our country right now is to buy them some time.

Of course there are those that argue that every single life is infinitely precious and everything must be done, regardless of economic consequences.

And so on.

As I have stated many, many times, it may makes sense to not only consider deaths and death rates, but also morbidity, and the costs of morbidity in hospitals or hospital-like care settings. The largest payer of those costs is the US government.

And of course there is an economic burden in the area of litigation as well.

For example, if a large food processing plan in say, Iowa has workers slaughtering hogs and doing related work, and there is a spike in cases at the plant, some folks will just refuse to work. If a worker gets infected and goes home and infects her family, and someone dies, she may take legal action.

If a movie theater operator in GA has patrons come in and someone gets infected and that leads to a death OR a very expensive hospitalization that bankrupts that person, will that operator be indemnified? What if an employee becomes infected and requires hospital care that exceeds his insurance coverage to the tune of $200k? Will the theater operator be indemnified?

This is all very complex. I understand why some try to argue that it is simple... I believe that is human nature.

But of course it is not simple.

And that somebeetch virus couldn't care less what folks discuss in person, in "the media" or on social media platforms.

[Mahler9th]

Why don't you come up with a model of your own? Plenty of ways to learn about how to do that on-line. If you become an "expert" and create your own model, then you'd have what you want.

I would not personally value such a model because I do not believe in your premise that "... all we are doing is buying the old and infirm some time. "

[island911]

Originally Posted by Mahler9th

Why don't you come up with a model of your own? Plenty of ways to learn about how to do that on-line. If you become an "expert" and create your own model, then you'd have what you want.

I would not personally value such a model because I do not believe in your premise that "... all we are doing is buying the old and infirm some time. "

Yeah, I was thinking that as I last typed - that it's not that difficult a number to extract out of other's models.
But make no mistake, those "flatten the curve" models are centered around the premise that all we are doing is buying people time.

Perhaps your (lacking) math skills keep you from seeing that obvious feature of those models.

Or is it that simply want to believe otherwise? Emo? is that it?

[island911]

Originally Posted by Mahler9th

"Without a vaccine all we are doing is buying the old and infirm some time. "

That is apparently your opinion. I completely disagree.

The shelter in place orders have not destroyed the economy...

Of course, economies go on. But, for some, their economy has been destroyed. This action is creating a massive divide, plunging many into economic despair. Why are you so callous towards those people? Is it because you got yours? DOes it make you feel like a king to have so many so far below your social-economic status?

[pmax]

Originally Posted by vash

i think i read 88% of those that went on a ventilator in NYC died. the vent is the last harrah. the "punt".

suffocating is my nightmare death. (this includes drowning, air tight vaults, etc)

Going on a ventilator means fully sedated juiced up with a soup of your favorite narcotics.

[Cajundaddy]

Originally Posted by island911

But make no mistake, those "flatten the curve" models are centered around the premise that all we are doing is buying people time.

... Because time is on our side. Time to get a better understanding of this thing. Time to complete final human trials on promising anti-viral treatments. Time to roll out widespread testing so we can see the enemy and deal with it directly. Time to develop better screening of travelers to keep infected persons off airplanes and cruise ships. Time to retrofit air circulation systems to reduce or eliminate contagions with every pass. Time to develop an effective vaccine. This thing really caught us with our pants down because it is highly contagious well before someone becomes symptomatic. We did not see that coming.

You are absolutely right and this is why isolation makes so much sense. It buys us time.

[island911]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

... Because time is on our side. Time to get a better understanding of this thing. Time to complete final human trials on promising anti-viral treatments. Time to roll out widespread testing so we can see the enemy and deal with it directly. Time to develop better screening of travelers to keep infected persons off airplanes and cruise ships. Time to retrofit air circulation systems to reduce or eliminate contagions with every pass. Time to develop an effective vaccine.

You are absolutely right and this is why isolation makes so much sense. It buys us time.

I like that you can look to alternate solutions for dealing with this, but...

We cannot ignore production. This planet has one HELL of a lot of people to feed. Shutting down, or even attempting to control economies causes MASSIVE volatility. Ask Venezuela. --Such a rich country in energy, weather, and natural beauty. ...so wealthy and then they started to eat zoo animals.

Damn it, I sound like tabs.

[legion]

Originally Posted by Cajundaddy

You are absolutely right and this is why isolation makes so much sense. It buys us time.

It buys some people time. It destroys other people's lives.

[island911]

Originally Posted by gregpark

Keeping people alive past normal expectancy has been a multi billion dollar industry for private pockets (nursing homes, pharmaceuticals) while sucking the communal general funds (SS) dry for decades....and now this.

Yes, the Phrase "your money or your life." works in back alleys too.

We are now in a back alley with the false dilemma question "your Economy or someone's life" ...and the virtue signalers trip over each other to say Here, here , take my economy... I don't like being productive much anyway.

[06C2S]

Time goes both ways...Time to find a cure....Time for ppl to die due to heart valve replacement surgery being put on hold..either way it goes on, there needs to be BALANCE

[pmax]

Originally Posted by 06C2S

Time goes both ways...Time to find a cure....Time for ppl to die due to heart valve replacement surgery being put on hold..either way it goes on, there needs to be BALANCE

Well said.

I heard even cancer surgeries and treatments are delayed as well, let alone your standard aches and pain stuff.

[Cajundaddy]

Originally Posted by legion

It buys some people time. It destroys other people's lives.

Lots of screaming and tantrums by chicken-little types, just zero evidence of this. I have not met anyone economically destroyed by the 6 week staycation yet, you? I do know of several whose lives were devastated by this disease and none were over 55. The 19 yr old died quickly, the 40 something athlete survived with extensive lung and kidney damage. He has a long recovery ahead and an uncertain future.

I expect a slow opening to begin May 1st and a ramp up as long as the virus can be contained. Extensive testing, thorough screening, and high situational awareness as we re-engage the workplace and social interaction. General surgeries and medical treatments are being resumed in CA today.

[tabs]

Originally Posted by island911

I like that you can look to alternate solutions for dealing with this, but...

We cannot ignore production. This planet has one HELL of a lot of people to feed. Shutting down, or even attempting to control economies causes MASSIVE volatility. Ask Venezuela. --Such a rich country in energy, weather, and natural beauty. ...so wealthy and then they started to eat zoo animals.

Damn it, I sound like tabs.

No you dont.

Your precious economy has been sliding all through 2019..the FED had upped their balance sheet by 500B before the CV hit..

All the cv did was blow the Little Pigs Straw House away..All i have been telling you aholes for 12 years is that the economy has been on life support by the FED and Treasury..without their facilitation the Global Economy of Scale woulda gone down the toilette years ago. I have been saying that a day was coming when they couln't keep doing it anymore and the the economy would collapse. In other words we all have been living in Alice In Wonderland for the past dozen years.

[pwd72s]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Modest_Proposal

A Modest Proposal For preventing the Children of Poor People From being a Burthen to Their Parents or Country, and For making them Beneficial to the Publick,[1] commonly referred to as A Modest Proposal, is a Juvenalian satirical essay written and published anonymously by Jonathan Swift in 1729. The essay suggests that the impoverished Irish might ease their economic troubles by selling their children as food to rich gentlemen and ladies. This satirical hyperbole mocked heartless attitudes towards the poor, as well as British policy toward the Irish in general.

In English writing, the phrase "a modest proposal" is now conventionally an allusion to this style of straight-faced satire.