The "Second Wave"

[legion]

Now the experts are predicting a "second wave" to keep us locked in our houses. We should trust them after the "first wave" turned out to nowhere near as bad as predicted. I'm sure the models will be right this time. Never mind that the original justification for the lockdown, "flattening the curve", has been achieved.

[vash]

there is no way the first wave was anemic because we all stayed isolated (for the most part)?

i truly appreciate some of the States throwing opened the gates. it is a nice experiment to see what happens. i hope NOTHING.

my wife is a nurse, and so we are surrounded by them in our circle of friends. i appreciate the people staying home to keep this thing from sprinting away.

[legion]

We were told that the ONLY way to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed was to isolate. Instead, most hospitals in the country are grossly underwhelmed and are laying off staff. Hospitals are setting records for empty beds right now.

[DaveE]

Yeah. Too bad we didn’t have more dead people.

[vash]

Originally Posted by legion

We were told that the ONLY way to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed was to isolate. Instead, most hospitals in the country are grossly underwhelmed and are laying off staff. Hospitals are setting records for empty beds right now.

so it worked? i dont understand what your are getting at.

(not trying to be argumentative - trying to understand your viewpoint)

[legion]

Evidence of social distancing working would have been hospitals being at capacity with coronavirus patients. Instead, hospitals are empty. The predictions were off by an order of magnitude. They predicted the Black Death and we got a seasonal flu.

[Porsche-O-Phile]

Of course - stoke the fear! Stoke the fear! We have to make this last until November or Soros won’t pay us!

[HardDrive]

Didn't know you had degrees in virology and epidemiology, legion. Do go on.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by vash

i truly appreciate some of the States throwing opened the gates. it is a nice experiment to see what happens. i hope NOTHING.

It will be interesting to see what comes of Georgia's experiment. I'm glad it's being done in a state so far away. I-75 goes right through Atlanta. It will be interesting to see what happens in towns along the highway a month from now.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by legion

Evidence of social distancing working would have been hospitals being at capacity with coronavirus patients..

That would be evidence of it NOT working.

[Noah930]

In short, I still think the answer is yes, trust the experts and their fears.

I think the hospital under-use is a complicated issue. Hospitals are being running a less than capacity for a variety of reasons. Elective (non-emergent) procedures have been stopped. Realistically the only people in there are people who got admitted through the emergency room (because things like heart attacks and appendicitis and CHF and diverticulitis still occur, even amongst a quarantined populace).

As a result, hospital staff are being laid off/furloughed/hours cut because there is less demand from the loss of elective procedures and because of the lack of income from those paying customers.

The reason why some hospitals are not being overwhelmed with Covid-19 patients is because of this lockdown and social distancing we're practicing. I think if you go to some hospitals in New York or New Orleans or Boston, you might have a different story. Mrs. Noah used to work at MGH in Boston, and they have 120 ICU beds filled with Covid-19 patients, as well as another 120 admitted to non-ICU beds. Or at least that was how it was last week.

But the numbers are down only because of we've sheltered in place. If we leave our homes and start moving around again, I would expect that the numbers would start to rise once again. Because we don't really have a cure or treatment for this virus.

Some will argue that won't a large portion of the population get this and be immune? I'm not so sure this is the case. Some will get this and either recover or be minimally symptomatic (or totally asymptomatic). But we don't know enough about this virus to know if an individual cannot be reinfected with this disease. Or if they were OK the first time around, is there a guarantee that they'll be OK with future reinfection?

This isn't just the seasonal flu. In addition to the pulmonary/pneumonia part of the disease, there seems to be a group of victims that have some sort of severe systemic inflammatory response like a cytokine storm that rapidly leads to multiorgan failure and death. People are getting DVTs from this to the point that some hospitals (I've heard this going on in Europe) are not only giving routine low-level daily thrombolytic prophylaxis (some sort of heparin shot), but actual treatment-level prophylactic dosing of anticoagulants to prevent DVT/PE scenario (continuous heparin drip).

I'm not saying we can keep this societal lockdown going on indefinitely or for another 12-18 months. That's not financially realistic. But we have to be careful about being too cavalier about re-opening society.

[speeder]

Since widespread Covid19 testing seems to be a pipe dream in the U.S., I propose instead that we give everyone in the U.S. a quick IQ test and let the stupidest people decide what we do next. They can spread the policies on social media and message boards, plus have one major network at their disposal.

How does that work for you, legion?

[Shaun @ Tru6]

This is the problem with the Internet. It used to the "end is near" guys, the crazies were seen on the street corner and ignored. Today the Internet gives them a voice. And not just among themselves where confirmation bias rules the day and it's all tribal confirmation and affirmation, but everyone is now exposed to the lunatic fringe, you can't get away from it. Combine that with political tribalism/cultism and it is a very real brick in the foundation of our developing Idiocracy.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by Noah930

In short, I still think the answer is yes, trust the experts and their fears.

I think the hospital under-use is a complicated issue. Hospitals are being running a less than capacity for a variety of reasons. Elective (non-emergent) procedures have been stopped. Realistically the only people in there are people who got admitted through the emergency room (because things like heart attacks and appendicitis and CHF and diverticulitis still occur, even amongst a quarantined populace).

As a result, hospital staff are being laid off/furloughed/hours cut because there is less demand from the loss of elective procedures and because of the lack of income from those paying customers.

The reason why some hospitals are not being overwhelmed with Covid-19 patients is because of this lockdown and social distancing we're practicing. I think if you go to some hospitals in New York or New Orleans or Boston, you might have a different story. Mrs. Noah used to work at MGH in Boston, and they have 120 ICU beds filled with Covid-19 patients, as well as another 120 admitted to non-ICU beds. Or at least that was how it was last week.

But the numbers are down only because of we've sheltered in place. If we leave our homes and start moving around again, I would expect that the numbers would start to rise once again. Because we don't really have a cure or treatment for this virus.

Some will argue that won't a large portion of the population get this and be immune? I'm not so sure this is the case. Some will get this and either recover or be minimally symptomatic (or totally asymptomatic). But we don't know enough about this virus to know if an individual cannot be reinfected with this disease. Or if they were OK the first time around, is there a guarantee that they'll be OK with future reinfection?

This isn't just the seasonal flu. In addition to the pulmonary/pneumonia part of the disease, there seems to be a group of victims that have some sort of severe systemic inflammatory response like a cytokine storm that rapidly leads to multiorgan failure and death. People are getting DVTs from this to the point that some hospitals (I've heard this going on in Europe) are not only giving routine low-level daily thrombolytic prophylaxis (some sort of heparin shot), but actual treatment-level prophylactic dosing of anticoagulants to prevent DVT/PE scenario (continuous heparin drip).

I'm not saying we can keep this societal lockdown going on indefinitely or for another 12-18 months. That's not financially realistic. But we have to be careful about being too cavalier about re-opening society.

pffft. you and your elitist medical degrees. it's my constitutional right to go bowling!

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by Noah930

But we have to be careful about being too cavalier about re-opening society.

Here is what happened this morning: A haircut.

I have been getting my hair cut by the same lady for 30 years. She is Korean, married an Air Force guy and found her way to Patuxent River. I hired her oldest daughter as an intern 15 years ago (every successful young lady now) and her youngest is an Air Force Academy graduate soon to be a Major.

S also owns the shop, having bought is about 20 years ago.

S texted me and all her other loyal clients Monday that guidance had been issued for Barber Shops in Maryland and that I could get my hair cut.

Perfect! It had been almost two months and I was beginning to look like Bea Arthur.



So, here is how it worked:

- Only two appointments an hour.
- One client in the shop at any one time, the next person waited in their car.
- Masks and rubber gloves for all
- Area was cleaned between appointments - I watched her...she is very diligent
- All implements cleaned - she has multiple
- All clients agree to be entered in a spreadsheet. Is S contracts CV-19 we will be notified.
- All clients agree to notify S if they get CV-19

There was nothing cavalier at all. Everyone was very respectful of the process and I felt very comfortable since I know S. I also wore pants and a long sleeved Polo.

S is going to bring back another barber soon as she works through the Maryland guidance and she feel comfortable.

This part of Maryland has been CV-19 lite since the beginning so it is of course easier to get started: But that is the whole point...I didn't take the subway to S's.

[greglepore]

Remarkably restrained response from Noah.

Those of you who have not been personally affected by this should stfu. Those of us that have lost family and friends, or who live in affected urban areas know its no joke.

The vast majority of what hospitals do is non crisis care. That was turned off by the need to keep those folks safe from exposure. Those caregivers know that they could be called back to work on a virus ward if needed.

If we could trust people to exercise sound judgement we could ease into a reopening-but you can't trust people to behave voluntarily. The scenes at the beaches and parks during the early days proved that.

And its not a matter of "personal" choice, because those that don't exercise appropriate caution exponentially increase the risk for those of us that do.

Lost someone in my extended fam to the cytokine storm, and it is no joke. Started as flu like symptoms, and very rapidly progressed into liver failure and almost complete kidney failure. Sadly, while he responded to dialysis, while sedated he a some sort of a cerebral vascular event, and couldn't be awakened. 58, reasonably fit, volunteer first responder.

[Paul T]

Originally Posted by Seahawk

Here is what happened this morning: A haircut.

I have been getting my hair cut by the same lady for 30 years. She is Korean, married an Air Force guy and found her way to Patuxent River. I hired her oldest daughter as an intern 15 years ago (every successful young lady now) and her youngest is an Air Force Academy graduate soon to be a Major.

S also owns the shop, having bought is about 20 years ago.

S texted me and all her other loyal clients Monday that guidance had been issued for Barber Shops in Maryland and that I could get my hair cut.

Perfect! It had been almost two months and I was beginning to look like Bea Arthur.



So, here is how it worked:

- Only two appointments an hour.
- One client in the shop at any one time, the next person waited in their car.
- Masks and rubber gloves for all
- Area was cleaned between appointments - I watched her...she is very diligent
- All implements cleaned - she has multiple
- All clients agree to be entered in a spreadsheet. Is S contracts CV-19 we will be notified.
- All clients agree to notify S if they get CV-19

There was nothing cavalier at all. Everyone was very respectful of the process and I felt very comfortable since I know S. I also wore pants and a long sleeved Polo.

S is going to bring back another barber soon as she works through the Maryland guidance and she feel comfortable.

This part of Maryland has been CV-19 lite since the beginning so it is of course easier to get started: But that is the whole point...I didn't take the subway to S's.

Seems like a reasonable and well thought out process....

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by greglepore

Remarkably restrained response from Noah.

I respect Noah but also the other, equally credentialed folks who say that the lock down had no affect on CV-19.

I wish there was sufficient definition in the models to make a claim either way. There isn't.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

pffft. you and your elitist medical degrees. it's my constitutional right to go bowling!

Yep. I'm getting tired of all these infectious disease specialists and medical people w all their fancy degrees thinking that they are smarter than everyone else.

[speeder]

Originally Posted by Seahawk

I respect Noah but also the other, equally credentialed folks who say that the lock down had no affect on CV-19.

I wish there was sufficient definition in the models to make a claim either way. There isn't.

Who are the equally credentialed people saying that enforced social distancing in cities had no effect, (assume that's what you meant), on an extremely contagious virus?

That would defy anything I've read in the last 3 months...who are they? Haven't heard of this.

As for your hair stylist, the whole thing sounds reasonable to me. The numbers are very low in a lot of places and the shut down of normal travel and recreation activities make the risk of transmission *not scary* where you live, though it surely exists. Los Angeles has really low numbers by population but I sure would not want to wind up in an ER waiting room right now.