So how close is a covid vaccine?

[KFC911]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

The better question, who would sign up for a vaccine that was rushed into service years more quickly than normal?

One particular person comes to mind ...

[flatbutt]

Just to give you the faintest idea of drug development timing...




and that's for a medication for which an appropriate test population is available. A trial for a vaccine as a preventative works a wee bit differently than a trial for a medication intended as a cure. Test subjects would need to be checked for antibody production after being inoculated. Who's gonna be first to sign up?

[jyl]

That’s the normal timeline. We’re in a highly abnormal situation.

[Rawknees'Turbo]

Originally Posted by KC911

One particular person comes to mind ...

Does he have chemically altered skin coloring?!?!

[RWebb]

does he look like a dork?

[Tobra]

How close to a vaccine or how close to an effective vaccine?

[Cajundaddy]

My guess... Just maybe by end of year with a rollout to 1st responders and healthcare workers. The rest of us will have to get in line.

Both the Moderna and Oxford vaccines are completing 1st phase human trials and both are generating antibodies at a similar level to a person who has recovered from Covid-19. This suggests it is effective. Now they need a longer test on thousands of participants to measure effectiveness and safety with a much larger population. I expect if this is completed successfully, the FDA will approve it's use. Then the race is on!

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

I'll stop by Moderna tomorrow and see what they have to say. It probably won't be good. I get the sense their press release was more about stock price than having something real in development.

That said, given the worldwide resources being thrown at it combined with the existing library of vaccine knowledge, it will be sooner than later.

Oh my.

Moderna unveiled encouraging coronavirus vaccine results. Then top execs dumped nearly $30 million of stock

[Brando]

I think 1-2 election cycles.

[ckissick]

I talked to a Stanford doctor about the prospect of a virus and was met with incredulity and a "There will never be a vaccine!" in a scoffing tone. He said the sooner we open up and let the populace deal with it, the better.

In other words, let's just get it over with, pick up the pieces, and move on. He said all those "experts" on TV talking about a vaccine by December are lying. The execs at Moderna certainly don't seem to be acting in a way that would suggest the doc is wrong.

[jyl]

Originally Posted by ckissick

I talked to a Stanford doctor about the prospect of a virus and was met with incredulity and a "There will never be a vaccine!" in a scoffing tone. He said the sooner we open up and let the populace deal with it, the better.

In other words, let's just get it over with, pick up the pieces, and move on. He said all those "experts" on TV talking about a vaccine by December are lying. The execs at Moderna certainly don't seem to be acting in a way that would suggest the doc is wrong.

A doctor of what - nephrology? podiatry? surgeon?

Pfizer has invested $1 billion and other biotech/pharma collectively are investing many more billions, in Covid vaccine development. They collectively know everything that humankind knows about viruses and vaccine technology. They think there can be a vaccine and are racing to be the ones to have it.

But let’s listen to some random doctor of opthamology or whatever.

[biosurfer1]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

Oh my.

Moderna unveiled encouraging coronavirus vaccine results. Then top execs dumped nearly $30 million of stock

Didn't actually read the article did you? Those stock sales we part of a 10b5-1 plan that almost every executive of public companies have to file with the SEC since there are strict rules regarding stock sales...in this case, you'll see that these particular plans were filed almost 2 years ago.

What foresight to know there was a pandemic coming and they would work on the vaccine!!

😒

[Shaun @ Tru6]

Originally Posted by biosurfer1

Didn't actually read the article did you? Those stock sales we part of a 10b5-1 plan that almost every executive of public companies have to file with the SEC since there are strict rules regarding stock sales...in this case, you'll see that these particular plans were filed almost 2 years ago.

What foresight to know there was a pandemic coming and they would work on the vaccine!!

��

I did read the article. My understanding of 10b5-1s is that they are quite complex, not simply you can buy and sell on this particular date, but predetermined metrics have to met, etc. These are complex documents. And of course are designed to curb insider trading.

My sense is, and one that this and all other articles on the Moderna trades, CAN'T imply, is summed up in my ficticious WhatsApp string:

Hey Joe, the vaccine is coming along nicely, what's the realistic timetable for it?

Steve, yes, it is, but probably a year out, maybe 6 months at the earliest.

Thanks, did you see the email from Mary, the 10b5 is coming up. Do you think we can announce anything?

Steve, I'm confident in our progress, it's just going to take time, but yes, I think we can announce something. It's definitely a work in process and everyone knows vaccine development takes years so I don't think we'll be in trouble with the SEC.


Something like that.

Honestly to think that this scenario didn't cross C-suite minds is a little naive. But no, they didn't start vaccine development because of the 10b5 but certainly took advantage of it being place.

[biosurfer1]

Originally Posted by Shaun @ Tru6

Honestly to think that this scenario didn't cross C-suite minds is a little naive. But no, they didn't start vaccine development because of the 10b5 but certainly took advantage of it being place.

I'm sure it did cross their minds, which is why they took the job with stock options in the first place, and exactly why the stock sales plans are developed in the first place.

They are not very complex documents either, they simply state how many options each person has, the strike price and predetermined prices the stock will be sold at. The person doesn't even have to do anything, exercising and sales happen automatically.

And they did start vaccine development because of them. Alll that Moderna does is vaccines.

It's hilarious people are chastising the execs for taking a job created vaccines, that will reward them years down the line if they do it correctly, and then that happens and people try to say there is a conspiracy.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

oh good lord.

The press release was issued to manipulate the share price for the 10b5. That's what we're talking about.

[legion]

Originally Posted by ckissick

I talked to a Stanford doctor about the prospect of a virus and was met with incredulity and a "There will never be a vaccine!" in a scoffing tone. He said the sooner we open up and let the populace deal with it, the better.

In other words, let's just get it over with, pick up the pieces, and move on. He said all those "experts" on TV talking about a vaccine by December are lying. The execs at Moderna certainly don't seem to be acting in a way that would suggest the doc is wrong.

I've been saying this for months. We've lost most of our freedom to fix something that government can't fix.

[ckissick]

Originally Posted by jyl

A doctor of what - nephrology? podiatry? surgeon?

He's an emergency room surgeon. Other doctors on the radio have said the same thing. It seems odd to me that some doctors talk about the vaccine that's coming soon while others say there won't be one. This article covers the issue pretty well, but it does say this, which is troubling to me:

"The FDA has never approved a vaccine for humans that is effective against any member of the coronavirus family, which includes SARS, MERS, and several that cause the common cold."

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/will-there-be-a-coronavirus-vaccine-maybe-not.html

[Ziggythecat]

The common cold virus has resisted a vaccine and a cure.
That’s certainly not for lack of trying, unless someone thinks NyQuil has the cure hidden away in a safe.

All the money and all the efforts, and I feel like the folks in a disaster movie, waiting for Bruce Willis to save the World
I wish Morgan Freeman was President.

[Seahawk]

https://www.jpost.com/international/uk-covid-19-vaccine-trial-may-fail-due-to-low-transmission-in-population-629082

Hopes that a vaccine for the coronavirus could be ready by September are hanging in the balance, as the scientists developing it are concerned that a slowdown in the rate of infection in the general population could invalidate the human trials currently taking place.

Prof. Adrian Hill, Director of the Oxford University’s Jenner Institute, has told The Telegraph that there is only a 50-50 chance that the vaccine his team has been developing can be successfully tested.

The team has recruited 10,000 people to test the vaccine, some of whom will be given the vaccine and others a placebo. But as it is unethical to purposely infect people in the trial with COVID-19, participants will be asked to go about their normal routine in the expectation that some will be exposed to it naturally. However, that is unlikely to happen if the virus is not spreading, meaning that no conclusions can be drawn one way or the other about the vaccine’s efficacy.

Hill expects that fewer than 50 people in the test population will catch the virus, but if less than 20 test positive the results may be useless.

It is a race, yes. But it’s not a race against the other guys,” he said. “It’s a race against the virus disappearing – and against time. We said earlier in the year that there was an 80% chance of developing an effective vaccine by September. But at the moment, there’s a 50% chance that we get no result at all.

“We’re in the bizarre position of wanting COVID to stay, at least for a little while. But cases are declining.”

The Oxford team is not the only one facing this predicament. So far, eight potential vaccines have reached the stage of human trials: four in China, two in the US, one in Germany and the one of the Oxford team. With cases dwindling, all of the teams are looking for hotspots globally where they can conduct their trials.

“You think we’ve got a problem?” Hill asked. “What would you do if you were in China? There are three Chinese companies looking for Phase Three and there’s no COVID in China. So what do they do?”

[jyl]

Originally Posted by ckissick

He's an emergency room surgeon. Other doctors on the radio have said the same thing. It seems odd to me that some doctors talk about the vaccine that's coming soon while others say there won't be one. This article covers the issue pretty well, but it does say this, which is troubling to me:

"The FDA has never approved a vaccine for humans that is effective against any member of the coronavirus family, which includes SARS, MERS, and several that cause the common cold."

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04/will-there-be-a-coronavirus-vaccine-maybe-not.html

Vaccines for SARS and MERS have been in development, and at least one MERS vaccine is fairly far along, but there is no commercial market, little funding, and no practical way to do clinical trials because these diseases are largely gone/dormant.

The common cold is caused by dozens of different viruses, not a single virus that you can target with a vaccine. Think about the commercial market for a vaccine against a disease that no one considers more than a minor nuisance, that is only (maybe) 20% effective. Who would invest several billion dollars in such a project?