Cases vs Deaths

[Chocaholic]

We are seeing the US case count shoot up. It’s been a steady climb over the past 3 weeks. Yet we are seeing the death rate steadily decline.

Is COVID becoming less virulent as the Italians assert? Even if it’s younger people testing positive, you’d think the death rate would increase slower...but steadily decrease? If it’s mass testing, we could explain the case increase, but wouldn’t the death rate stabilize rather than continue to decline? So, what’s happening here?

Purposely not posted in PARF. Let’s keep it that way.

[Alan A]

Dead is recorded always.
Sick is only recorded when tested or dead.

Test more and sick:dead ratio will drop, no?

Plus certain states may have overexposed vulnerable groups early on. That may also skew things.

[dad911]

There was a spike in deaths yesterday, but that may be NJ added 1800 "probable" deaths yesterday supposedly after reviewing death certificates.

I wouldn't count on it being less virulent. Deaths lag at least a week or 3, and I suspect we are seeing more younger cases,as they are the ones frequenting bars and restaurants in the states that are opening. Nursing/assisted living has figured out how to keep (older more likely to die**)patients safe, and us old farts are (mostly) smart enough to wear masks, wash hands, and stay out of crowds.

** we have been interviewing and looking actively at local assisted living for our mother (90yo). They are still locked down, do not allow socializing among residents, no visitors, and actively testing and screening their staff.

[Shaun @ Tru6]

I think the data is showing more young people are getting CV. Young people have a lower death rate by CV. But they will ultimately infect people with a higher death rate by CV.

And lags don't help with objective, absolute correlation. You don't get tested, confirm positive and die all in a day or two.

[sc_rufctr]

With more testing you're finding more cases but the morbidity rate % is the same as it always was.
The reason it appears to be going down is because it's being skewed by the higher number of discovered cases.

[cabmandone]

Cases and hospitalizations as a result of new cases is important IMO. If hospitalizations go up due to increasing new cases, it's a safe bet that deaths will go up as well.

[Baz]

I wish there was more reporting on how these people were getting infected.

Take 10 different people in a half-hour segment.

Take us through their routines that led to their infections.

Then do it again with 10 more people.

Documentary style - no editorials - just the facts.

[Tobra]

Mostly that is not known Bazza.

The more are exposed, the closer herd immunity is

[Chocaholic]

Very little news of progress on the treatment front. HCQ and Redemsivir stories have dissolved for the most part. So, is treatment protocol improving to minimize severity? Why so little reporting on treatment developments?

[klaus]

Even when you account for a lag, this helps to illustrate when is happening across the country (NY excluded).

Originally Posted by dad911

There was a spike in deaths yesterday, but that may be NJ added 1800 "probable" deaths yesterday supposedly after reviewing death certificates.

Correct, the uptick was just a mass adjustment from NJ, we have seen that a few times so far in the data. The CDC data that shows all deaths regardless of cause is another good way to look at it, they track above expectations, the only problem it is really slow to update, last I checked the data was 20 days old.

[cabmandone]

Originally Posted by Baz

I wish there was more reporting on how these people were getting infected.

Take 10 different people in a half-hour segment.

Take us through their routines that led to their infections.

Then do it again with 10 more people.

Documentary style - no editorials - just the facts.

They came in contact with an infected person. Not trying to be a smartass here. I've read several reports on the spread. Some of the big concerns like getting the virus from surfaces seem to be a minimal risk. Direct contact seems to be the primary transmission path.

I'll see if I can find the articles I read on transmission recently.

[onewhippedpuppy]

I wish there was more open reporting here. Genuinely new infections (not repeat positive tests which are being double counted), number of test conducted, new hospitalizations, and deaths in which Covid is the cause of death. But you'll really struggle to find that data, especially in the same place. It's unfortunate because we continue to test more, so you would expect to have more new positive cases in asymptomatic people. But if the hospitalization rate and death rate aren't rising dramatically then it's far less concerning.

Like I've said all along, the inconsistency and lack of data provided to the public on this issue is disgusting, and brings into question the validity of everything being reported. Why aren't we ever given the entire story?

[Baz]

Originally Posted by cabmando

They came in contact with an infected person. Not trying to be a smartass here. I've read several reports on the spread. Some of the big concerns like getting the virus from surfaces seem to be a minimal risk. Direct contact seems to be the primary transmission path.

I'll see if I can find the articles I read on transmission recently.

Guess what I was looking for is....more about this person who got infected. The precautionary steps they themselves took, if any, and what their activities were previous to getting infected.

Did they go out every day to stores and public areas?
Did they stay home except for the occasional food run?
Were they mask wearers?
What were their interactions with other humans?
What kind of symptoms did they experience?
Were their hospitalized?
If so, for how long - and what treatment(s) did they receive?
How old are they?
What is their demographic?
What about travel? Did they go anywhere recently?
Do they have any comments to us....the folks....they would like to pass on?

Get these people in front of a microphone or on video. I realize many will refuse any publicity and want their privacy. But not all will.

Do some digging and get us some details.

These media people are pretty damn lazy if you ask me. They wouldn't know human interest/public safety stories if they bit them in their arse.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

I wish there was more open reporting here. Genuinely new infections (not repeat positive tests which are being double counted), number of test conducted, new hospitalizations, and deaths in which Covid is the cause of death. But you'll really struggle to find that data, especially in the same place. It's unfortunate because we continue to test more, so you would expect to have more new positive cases in asymptomatic people. But if the hospitalization rate and death rate aren't rising dramatically then it's far less concerning.

Like I've said all along, the inconsistency and lack of data provided to the public on this issue is disgusting, and brings into question the validity of everything being reported. Why aren't we ever given the entire story?

There is no reporting standard for states. Cases and deaths we have s pretty good idea. Hospitalization and ICU is where we fall far short. Some states report cumulative hospitalizations while some report only current and some report both. Same for ICU.

[Chocaholic]

Originally Posted by onewhippedpuppy

Like I've said all along, the inconsistency and lack of data provided to the public on this issue is disgusting, and brings into question the validity of everything being reported. Why aren't we ever given the entire story?

Election year.

[Cajundaddy]

Originally Posted by Chocaholic

We are seeing the US case count shoot up. It’s been a steady climb over the past 3 weeks. Yet we are seeing the death rate steadily decline.

Is COVID becoming less virulent as the Italians assert? Even if it’s younger people testing positive, you’d think the death rate would increase slower...but steadily decrease? If it’s mass testing, we could explain the case increase, but wouldn’t the death rate stabilize rather than continue to decline? So, what’s happening here?

Purposely not posted in PARF. Let’s keep it that way.

They don't really know yet. Maybe the most vulnerable are doing a better job of avoiding it, maybe treatments are getting more effective now that they understand the disease better, maybe the virus is weakening. It is possibly a little of all three.

My wife's hospital in LACO has a record 48 serious Covid patients right now and 1/2 are under 35 years. Definitely a different demographic than 2 months ago.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Chocaholic

Election year.

No. It was Fauci, Birx , and CDC dropping the ball and not setting up reporting standards for states to report to.

[KFC911]

It's not politics imo. My background is computer science (modeling), and quantitative analysis, and I spent a career doing this stuff, though not in this arena. Collecting and standardizing the input data is the hard part .... then designing the meaningful variables for the models, then the modeling and statistical analysis....

GIGO - garbage in, garbage out

Some things are universal.

The experts have been winging it with scant and bogus input from the git-go, but that's all they've had to go on.... jmho.

[Seahawk]

Originally Posted by KC911

It's not politics imo.

I wish that were true but I didn't wake up on the other side of the sunset.

That and the Medicare bonus for CV-19.

Not political at all and, yes, I "fact checked" it.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Seahawk

I wish that were true but I didn't wake up on the other side of the sunset.

That and the Medicare bonus for CV-19.

Not political at all and, yes, I "fact checked" it.

How do we account for the excessive expected deaths? From Jan through March the number of deaths was as expected. April and May they increased dramatically. The only classification was that they were pushing up daisies.