Sweden Did It Wrong

[Jeff Higgins]

Originally Posted by Mahler9th

"I think we should fully reopen - all businesses, schools, public gatherings - all of it."

Do you think the number of Covid-19-related lawsuits would increase if this were the case? If so, do you think anything should be done about it? If so what?

I am unaware of any COVID related lawsuits outside of those filed against elderly care facilities by grieving families, and those filed by various states' Attorney Generals against businesses that had the audacity to open in defiance of Governors' orders. Can you provide examples?

Originally Posted by Mahler9th

Pretty sure that concerns over liability related to Covid-19 sequela had something to do with recent Big 10 and Pac 10 decisions to cancel Fall sport (I was a college athlete so I have perhaps more personal thoughts about this).

I disagree. And I was a college athlete myself, but I would never suggest that participating at that level has provided me with any sort of special insight. Perhaps if I were involved in the administration of college level athletics, but certainly not just from kicking a football around on the pitch.

Originally Posted by Mahler9th

Do you think that the fact that Sweden has different legal and healthcare systems makes comparisons more difficult or challenging in any way? If so how? If not why not? I think these things may matter.

I do not. I thought we were discussing the health ramifications of this pandemic, with you having more or less discounted the political aspect of it. I include the legal ramifications of this under the "political" side of the ledger, and have already said I believe that it plays far too much of a role in our response. You have argued against that and, once again, appear to have changed course and are now saying it makes a difference. Which is it?

Originally Posted by Mahler9th

Same questions about culture in Sweden versus US?

Yes, there is a profound cultural difference. Americans are defiant, Swedes more or less do what they are told. There is far greater trust in government and in any sort of "officials" in general in Sweden than here in the U.S. - I believe that stems, in a large part, from the corrupted media/politician relationship that I previously alluded to. Americans are rightfully skeptical - we have been lied to, repeatedly, over too many issues.

Originally Posted by Mahler9th

"Yet every single COVID related death is still being reported."

Why would you expect otherwise? We don't have "state" news. We have capitalism. If humans "like" this kind of news, shouldn't Fox, CNN, MSNBC, et cetera be allowed to do whatever they want to optimize their businesses without government intervention of any kind? Folks can always turn of their televisions and/or shut down their computers, right?

I certainly do not "expect otherwise", and gave no indication that I do. I believe that I stated, very clearly, my understanding of how our media has been corrupted by only reporting "what sells". I also decried the fact that, because it "sells", that our media is vastly over-emphasizing every COVID related death. And yes, I do wish more Americans would "turn off" this "news", having described it as a "symbiotic relationship" that feeds on itself, to everyone's detriment. I thought I was pretty clear on all of that.

Originally Posted by Mahler9th

We'll certainly see what happens.

Yes, we will.

I have now outlined my position, I believe fairly clearly, with my reasons for having adopted it. What is your position, and what has led you to it?

[Jeff Higgins]

Originally Posted by Mahler9th

"We should not be continuing to use even the slightest uptick in cases as justification to prolong our current state, much less, as as happened in some jurisdictions, use them to justify regressing to previous stages of lockdown or other restrictions."

Why not? Don't hospitalizations and deaths automatically follow such upticks?

They do. Hospitalizations do follow such "upticks" in cases, but for some time have not kept pace with the initial ratios of cases/hospitalizations/deaths. In other words, while cases are up, hospitalizations are markedly down, and deaths are dramatically down.

Yet we are now seeing an emphasis on cases, where previous reporting was focused on hospitalizations and deaths. We are asked to believe that mere cases are justification for continued lockdowns, or even regressions to previous lockdown levels, while we were originally told that the lockdowns and restrictions were in place to cut down on hospitalizations and deaths.

You know, flattening the curve. As I stated earlier, that curve has been flattened - we now enjoy excess capacity in our hospitals, having reopened them for elective surgeries. We are "out of the woods" on that original justification - so now mere cases are being used as the new justification. I've explained all of this already... What is it you do not understand?

[brainz01]

Originally Posted by Mahler9th

"We should not be continuing to use even the slightest uptick in cases as justification to prolong our current state, much less, as as happened in some jurisdictions, use them to justify regressing to previous stages of lockdown or other restrictions."

Why not? Don't hospitalizations and deaths automatically follow such upticks?

Actually, deaths don’t automatically follow such upticks. It depends on what part of the progression of the epidemic you’re in. If it’s the beginning, then yes, deaths initially follow positive tests. But positive tests later in the progression of the epidemic DO NOT necessarily result in deaths. This can currently be seen in the data globally.

Here’s a vid explaining it in better detail: https://youtu.be/FU3OibcindQ


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[gsxrken]

[Tobra]

Mahler, I don't mean this as a slight, but you seem to be approaching this as less a discussion, more an adversarial interaction.

[RWebb]

new report in JAMA Network Open today

“What we want people to know is that this has 1918 potential,” lead author Dr. Jeremy Faust said in an interview

[Sooner or later]

Without 100 years of medical advances it would be similar. They use worst case NY to make their case. No other area has approached those levels since the first month of spread.

From the article that you didn't mention.

The study’s authors noted that their research had limitations. The researchers said it’s unknown how many Covid-19 deaths have been prevented since the outbreak began because of modern improvements in health care that weren’t available a century ago, such as supplemental oxygen and ventilators.

[Cajundaddy]

Yes Covid 19 has become a giant political punching bag only to further divide the Right from the Left. Kinda sad because it got in our way and cost us a much longer period of community spread and business interruptions.

I think conditions still vary a great deal regionally with the NE having very limited hospitalizations but CA, AZ, TX, FL still seeing significant serious illness. In SoCal the infection numbers peaked in July with hospitalizations and deaths peaking in August. Locally our major med center has 65 serious covid patients and that number was 90 just 2 weeks ago. In March and April it averaged 12-15.

For every covid case that dies, roughly another 10 will survive with serious long term heart, lung, kidney damage, or stroke. A full 10% of infected persons contract serious illness while another 10% have mild symptoms. 80% of infected have little or no symptoms at all. It is a very strange disease with a lot of unknown unknowns and it seems to affect everyone who gets ill a bit differently.

Can we pull off all the stops and just let her run? I think the price would be very high and hospitals would rapidly reach capacity of care.

[Mahler9th]

"I am unaware of any COVID related lawsuits outside of those filed against elderly care facilities by grieving families, and those filed by various states' Attorney Generals against businesses that had the audacity to open in defiance of Governors' orders. Can you provide examples?"

I think there is a natural time delay. I think if everything "just opened up fully," the liability issues would be myriad and the number of lawsuits would be higher. I think the lawsuit train is already on the tracks, even if we cannot see the headlight or hear the whistle.

There is clearly some concern, for example related to employment:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/liability-shield-is-next-coronavirus-aid-battle-11588589100

https://www.foley.com/en/insights/publications/2020/06/shield-employers-state-covid-19-indemnity-laws (A lawyer for that firm conducted my college interview by telephone, so many years ago).

https://www.natlawreview.com/article/shield-employers-state-covid-19-indemnity-laws

Restaurants:

https://modernrestaurantmanagement.com/restaurant-owners-could-face-a-host-of-new-liabilities-as-a-result-of-the-covid-19-pandemic/

Again, I think the train is already on the tracks. Opening up completely and fully on a knife switch tomorrow might be seen as a nuclear-powered supercharger or turbocharger for the engine.

[Mahler9th]

"I disagree. And I was a college athlete myself, but I would never suggest that participating at that level has provided me with any sort of special insight. Perhaps if I were involved in the administration of college level athletics, but certainly not just from kicking a football around on the pitch."

I never claimed "special insight," the word I used was "thoughts." I was a D1 athlete in a sport that has a current footprint several fold smaller than when I competed. Largely due to Title IX, yet to some extent impact by liability costs.

Some related perspective:

https://www.booker.senate.gov/news/press/ncaa-revokes-covid-19-liability-waiversfor-college-athletes-in-response-tobooker-and-blumenthal-demand

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/sports/canceling-college-football-coming-down-dollars-sense-n1236541

They are not likely to mention liability in specific for reasons of optics. But it was clearly a factor. Head of Pac 12 CEO group, UofO President Michael Schill: "“If we were going to do this responsibly or if we were going to do it responsibly, we would have to do a level of testing -- both COVID-19 testing and also potentially cardio MRIs -- that we weren’t sure we had the capacity to do,” Schill said. “We don’t know what the testing resources are going to be. We have to do very frequent testing over the course of the season.”"

Of course they could buy all of the necessary equipment and supplies... what would happen if a highly tested athlete contracted the virus and became a super-spreader in the gen pop at Cal? Lawsuit? Wouldn't a gen-pop student paying full tuition consider litigation if he or she did not have access to the same testing and infection preventative regimens as an athlete?

[Mahler9th]

" There is far greater trust in government and in any sort of "officials" in general in Sweden than here in the U.S. - I believe that stems, in a large part, from the corrupted media/politician relationship that I previously alluded to. Americans are rightfully skeptical - we have been lied to, repeatedly, over too many issues."

I have no idea whether people in Sweden trust their government more than here in the US. Do you have some type of survey data? Last time I extensively interacted with Swedes was in engineering grad school hanging with Leo and Charlotte and the Swedes drinkin' vodka... a lot of it. After all it was winter in New Hampshire.

"corrupted media/politician relationship"... not sure what you mean by that.

"I believe that I stated, very clearly, my understanding of how our media has been corrupted by only reporting "what sells". I also decried the fact that, because it "sells", that our media is vastly over-emphasizing every COVID related death."

I think our US media industry has evolved since I was a kid, powered in large part by advancing technology and capitalism. And I think that "yellow journalism" has been around a long time.

Some perhaps helpful perspective:

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1866-1898/yellow-journalism

I was not around at that time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_journalism

Perhaps the only "cure" is state journalism in the minds of some. I don't like that idea.

[Mahler9th]

"Yet we are now seeing an emphasis on cases, where previous reporting was focused on hospitalizations and deaths. "

I guess that must be a matter of opinion. Your opinion and perhaps experience differs from mine.

I have not followed much "reporting," but I fully understand the relationship between "cases" and morbidity, mortality and costs.

[cabmandone]

Going to be hard to sue a business over a covid infection and win. The person or persons went to that place of business on their own free will fully knowing the risk.

[Mahler9th]

From Schill:

"and also potentially cardio MRIs -- that we weren’t sure we had the capacity to do,”

I have plenty of folks in my network that'd be happy to sell Pac 12 schools everything they need including MRI systems and ultrasound systems to screen their entire campuses for Covid-19-related heart issues (perhaps in asymptomatic patients).

[cabmandone]

July 12, Florida set a record for the most COVID-19 cases in a single day. 1 month has passed and Florida's highest COVID-19 death total is 276 which significantly less than NY's single day death toll record. Morbidity and mortality? Florida even with more known infections than NY has a lower morbidity and mortality rate than NY did when NY was the epicenter.

[Mahler9th]

That's good. The people in Florida must somehow be more special than the people in NY.

[cabmandone]

Or the number of infections really doesn't mean as much as the news media and others are making it out to. From what I've found, the number of younger people getting the virus is higher in Florida which would explain a lot of why their deaths aren't touching NY's numbers.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by Mahler9th

That's good. The people in Florida must somehow be more special than the people in NY.

NY was hit when there was little testing. A complete lack of known and effective medical treatment. Along with terrible decisions by leadership on how to deal with the pandemic and those infected.

It is a problematic disease that must be taken seriously.

We cannot continue with huge economic shutdowns. Small business is being decimated. The working class is being driven into a corner and risk loss of any and all savings, homes, and other assets.

We must be smart enough to learn from the last 5 months and work at getting more and more people back to being productive. If not, there won't be any money for doctors or hospitals and you will be working for a token payment.

[Mahler9th]

"Or the number of infections really doesn't mean as much as the news media and others are making it out to."

Why would this matter? Why does it matter what "the news media and others" say?


Is it mostly about deaths?

Perhaps interesting perspective:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02335-z

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/06/13/report-suggests-some-mildly-symptomatic-covid-19-patients-endure-serious-long-term-effects/

Longer-term sequelae, even for folks that did not require hospitalization (or maybe even completely asymptomatic?) likely will be better understood as we continue. And of course the mantra... morbidity, mortality and cost will be part of that- we will see.

[Sooner or later]

Why do you ignore the current economic impact that is staggering?

Where are we going to be when cities and states file for bankruptcy? Without a change it will happen. Then where will we be?