Sweden Did It Wrong

[ckissick]

Comparing the US and Swedish economies is not really a viable comparison. Sweden's economy has been adversely impacted by a huge drop in tourism, a drop in the supply chain from foreign sources that would be needed in manufacturing, a drop in foreign customers for those manufactured goods, losses in the transport sector, and some losses in the service sector. 9000 companies in the tourism business are in danger of bankruptcy, with 80,000 jobs lost. My source for the above info is an email from my Swedish cousin, who happens to be president of the Swedish tourism bureau, and is a former minister in charge of business development and former deputy prime minister of Sweden. So I get some good info.

Most of these impacts are not directly related to what Sweden is doing within their own borders: it's more to do with what's going on internationally. Being such a small country with a less diverse economy than the USA , Sweden is more prone to the effects of a worldwide lock-down.

[Sooner or later]

For months Sweden had a nationwide limit of 50 on gatherings. The entire summer. If we had implemented that the crying n the US would have been unbearable.

[island911]

It would be a riot.

oh wait...

[group911@aol.co]

https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-stefan-lofven-denmark-sweden-europe-bd0a4d9da3340dda2c98b83c56402b47

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by group911@aol.co

https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-stefan-lofven-denmark-sweden-europe-bd0a4d9da3340dda2c98b83c56402b47

Their PM is isolating because he came into contact with someone who came into contact with someone that tested positive.

[group911@aol.co]

Yep. And look at their numbers. Turns out herd immunity ain't looking so good.

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

Their PM is isolating because he came into contact with someone who came into contact with someone that tested positive.

[island911]

Ok, let's look...

[island911]

Hey we are, doing it right...



Masks!

Shut Downs!

[livi]

Coming this far in the epidemic my personal observation is that it seems people in general have a rather exaggerated belief in different governmental strategies effect on the outcome.
Claiming this or that country did it wrong or that its Trumps fault has no real value. I rather believe inherent factors like culture and social behavior, likewise the way a countries care for the elderly is organized. Neither of which a current government can change in a blink.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by livi

Coming this far in the epidemic my personal observation is that it seems people in general have a rather exaggerated belief in different governmental strategies effect on the outcome.
Claiming this or that country did it wrong or that its Trumps fault has no real value. I rather believe inherent factors like culture and social behavior, likewise the way a countries care for the elderly is organized. Neither of which a current government can change in a blink.

I agree

[Sooner or later]

Statement coming out of Sweden. If these same statements were being made by US leadership we would be relentlessly beating on their heads.

PM: "The developments are going in the wrong direction fast. More are infected. More die. This is a serious situation,” he wrote.

A bunch of sissies: Sweden’s prime minister has gone into protective self-isolation after a person close to him came into contact with someone who tested positive for COVID-19.

Health Minister: " The Swedish population must understand that what happens in Europe, can, of course, also happen here. We see an increase (in new cases) that we must deal with,” Health Minister Lena Hallgren said. “Now what is important is to understand what the purpose is ... which is to stop a pandemic.”

Their Fauci: "It is partly due to increased sampling, but there is definitely an increased spread of infections in parts of the society,"

[legion]

Originally Posted by livi

Coming this far in the epidemic my personal observation is that it seems people in general have a rather exaggerated belief in different governmental strategies effect on the outcome.
Claiming this or that country did it wrong or that its Trumps fault has no real value. I rather believe inherent factors like culture and social behavior, likewise the way a countries care for the elderly is organized. Neither of which a current government can change in a blink.

If government policies have no effect, then we shouldn't have them. No masks, no lockdowns, no closed businesses.

[livi]

I am not saying policies per se have no effect at all but different societies and cultures have more or less tendencies to comply.
When the gov in Singapore recommends masks, a large part of the population will comply like one.
Same dictation in a Swedish multiculti suburb not so much.

Complete lockdown will of course keep the spreading to a minimum but as soon as you open up, that particular population will go about their business as they use to. Its just a matter of how long you want to drag it out in time, not least in order to not crash the medical system.

In best case a reasonably effective vaccine will be the game changer. In best case nota bene.

Hence its not very relevant to compare figures between countries, at least not as far as judging their particular strategies.

[island911]

Originally Posted by livi

Its just a matter of how long you want to drag it out in time,

Spot on.

Politician in the US clinged to dragging this out.

It started with protecting hospital resources. "Flatten the curve"

All of those emergency federal hospitals constructed and deconstructed, never seeing a single pt. And yet the Curve Flattening (draw it out) efforts continue.

[legion]

My governor is heavily invested in making the misery last as long as possible.

[Sooner or later]

Originally Posted by island911

Spot on.

Politician in the US clinged to dragging this out.

It started with protecting hospital resources. "Flatten the curve"

All of those emergency federal hospitals constructed and deconstructed, never seeing a single pt. And yet the Curve Flattening (draw it out) efforts continue.

It is far from over. At what point should we become concerned about hospital capacity?

Oklahoma hospital capacity in the Covid exec order reports. ICU down to 7% available in Oklahoma. 316 covid cases in ICU. Oct 1st we had 15% capacity and 220 in ICU. Sept 15th we had 17% and 208. There is still surge capacity if needed if nurses can be found to monitor the surge beds.

https://coronavirus.health.ok.gov/ex...-order-reports

[legion]

Originally Posted by Sooner or later

It is far from over. At what point should we become concerned about hospital capacity?

Oklahoma hospital capacity in the Covid exec order reports. ICU down to 7% available in Oklahoma. 316 covid cases in ICU. Oct 1st we had 15% capacity and 220 in ICU. Sept 15th we had 17% and 208. There is still surge capacity if needed if nurses can be found to monitor the surge beds.

https://coronavirus.health.ok.gov/ex...-order-reports

My understanding is that ICUs are designed to work (and be profitable) at an average of 90% capacity. So if you take 90% as the baseline, 93% utilization doesn't seem that bad. Also, Uncle Sam has promised to pick up the tab for coronavirus treatments, so there is word that many hospitals are admitting people with mild/low symptoms for "observation" to boost profits.

[Sooner or later]

Not even close. 2014

Over the three years studied, total ICU occupancy ranged from 57.4% to 82.1% and the number of beds filled with mechanically ventilated patients ranged from 20.7% to 38.9%. There was no change in occupancy across years and no increase in occupancy during influenza seasons. Mean hourly occupancy across ICUs was 68.2% SD ± 21.3, and was substantially higher in ICUs with fewer beds (mean 75.8% (± 16.5) for 5–14 beds versus 60.9% (± 22.1) for 20+ beds, P = 0.001), and in academic hospitals (78.7% (± 15.9) versus 65.3% (± 21.3) for community not-for profit hospitals, P < 0.001). More than half (53.6%) of ICUs had 4+ beds available more than half the time. The mean percentage of ICU patients receiving mechanical ventilation in any given hour was 39.5% (± 15.2), and a mean of 29.0% (± 15.9) of ICU beds were filled with a patient on a ventilator.

[Sooner or later]

Here it is on Research gate

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/256072139_ICU_Occupancy_and_Mechanical_Ventilator_ Use_in_the_United_States

[Sooner or later]

Do you have a link to your 90% claim?