Bitcoin crash coming?

[cstreit]

Originally Posted by island911

Please, expand your understanding. I would like to know the transaction cost.

Because as I understand it, there would be maybe a $20 transaction cost on that $16 pizza.

This is where you guys are sort of wrong.

IF you transfer BTC out of a secure wallet, this fee does exist. It is a verification that this Bitcoin is legit because it was essentially taken offline.

However... using other methods you can transfer chunks out of the secure wallet paying that fee, into a less secure provider like coinbase, and pay out of there without additional fees.

The analogy is this. It costs $30 to open your safe regardless of how much you take out and put in your wallet. So the smart man takes out enough to distribute for what he needs, but not so much that if his Wallet is stolen that he’s bust.

ATM fees are similar, it costs your $2.50 to take out your cash. ..so you take out more to pay that fee less often.

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by cstreit

What’s the basis for a dollar generated out of thin air?

That's a relatively straightforward question. Like any other business:

- The % annual depreciation of the equipment used to create it.

- The electricity used to create it.

- A portion of the Internet access services.

- A portion of the "home office" real estate allocated exclusively to the creation of the asset.

Etc.

Think of it like a farm in your backyard, and you sell the produce at a local farmer's market. Really no different.

Actually, the only difference would probably be if you never convert the digital coins into USD. In that case, they would be similar to inventory, like if you were producing wine and letting it sit in your cellar for 5-10 years. But with the crypto, I would imagine that it would be difficult to justify "losses" from the creation of the stuff if it's never quite converted into currency. I don't know how a startup wine manufacturer would allocate their startup losses for several years before they sell - might be a specialized area of farming accounting?

-Wayne

[Wayne 962]

Originally Posted by cstreit

This is where you guys are sort of wrong.

IF you transfer BTC out of a secure wallet, this fee does exist. It is a verification that this Bitcoin is legit because it was essentially taken offline.

However... using other methods you can transfer chunks out of the secure wallet paying that fee, into a less secure provider like coinbase, and pay out of there without additional fees.

The analogy is this. It costs $30 to open your safe regardless of how much you take out and put in your wallet. So the smart man takes out enough to distribute for what he needs, but not so much that if his Wallet is stolen that he’s bust.

ATM fees are similar, it costs your $2.50 to take out your cash. ..so you take out more to pay that fee less often.

So, the "Bitcoin" that users have on "deposit" with Coinbase, is actually held specifically by Coinbase, and not by the individual user? That seems similar to PayPal, where you have a "balance" with PayPal (denominated in USD), but since PayPal is not a real bank, it just shows up as a liability on the PayPal corporation's balance sheet. In the case of PayPal, if something goes wrong with the company (bankruptcy, fraud, etc.), then the "account holders" would become mere creditors at a BK hearing. It's for this reason that I made sure we swept 100% of our PayPal balance into our bank account every night (they have a "secret" unpublicized tool for large customers that will do this automatically).

Seems like Coinbase is the same thing? They hold your crypto themselves, but then give you an "account balance" that you can then easily use and trade within their system (much like PayPal?).

Other than being denominated in dollars versus crypto, what is the main difference then between a company like PayPal and Coinbase?

-Wayne

[tabs]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

That's a relatively straightforward question. Like any other business:

- The % annual depreciation of the equipment used to create it.

- The electricity used to create it.

- A portion of the Internet access services.

- A portion of the "home office" real estate allocated exclusively to the creation of the asset.

Etc.

Think of it like a farm in your backyard, and you sell the produce at a local farmer's market. Really no different.

Actually, the only difference would probably be if you never convert the digital coins into USD. In that case, they would be similar to inventory, like if you were producing wine and letting it sit in your cellar for 5-10 years. But with the crypto, I would imagine that it would be difficult to justify "losses" from the creation of the stuff if it's never quite converted into currency. I don't know how a startup wine manufacturer would allocate their startup losses for several years before they sell - might be a specialized area of farming accounting?

-Wayne

U mean like a Marijuana plot out beyond the Black Stump..

LV casinos are now thinking about adding Bitcoin as an acceptable currency. This shows you exactly how far the USD has fallen into disrepute. Several years back the casino operators would have laughed at you if you suggested Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is just another worthless FIAT CURRENCY...the flavor of the day...Why would anyone take a Bitcoin..it has NO TRACK RECORD..The USD goes back to 1790 and up until the idiots now in charge got a hold of it it has been the Rock of Gibraltar of currencies..

How any of you out there can think that you are not fked in the azz is beyond me. The FED has now stopped reporting M1 and M2 Money supply on a monthly basis...what happened to transparency?

Partisan politics since 2012 has just been white noise to distract..the FED is in control of your daily lives, they are the adult in the room that keeps the lights on and the trains running. Now they have former FED Chairman Yellen at Treasury in the WH. Don't you think Powell and Yellen talk regularly to coordinate activities?

There is a reason why Empires and Civilizations collapse and that is people just don't pay attention nor realize that the ship is sinking beneath their feet until the water is up to their knees..by then it is too late and they start to panic.

Shytebitcoin is a presumed lifeboat..to get off the sinking ship USD.. Now that is a succinct bit of clarification now isn't it...that no one seems to have illuminated before..now have they?

[pwd72s]

Tabby? You nailed it! Fiat currency with added tulip mania...Ponzi would be proud.

[Wayne 962]

So, this is a fundamental problem with nearly everything. In a nutshell, and after one thinks about it for awhile, nearly every asset is "fake". Money (fiat currency) is fake (only supported by the government behind it). Real estate also is technically fake (again, only supported by the government / courts / army behind it). Gold - it's a pretty worthless material in the grand scheme of things. It's shiny and pretty, but out in the wilderness or on the frontier in the old days - basically not useful for *anything*. Water is useful, but water rights are also fake (again, supported like real estate by the government, courts, and the "army" behind the government). Collectible cars? The value in them is limited to their usefulness as a mode of transportation - anything above that is a perceived value.

Once people start to think about this in the terms of what is real and what is not real, it either makes things way more confusing, or way more complicated.

Yes, Bitcoin is fake - it doesn't have any basis in anything. But so is nearly every other asset class. Now, some are more "fake" than others, and some have tremendous historical precedence for use as a currency / store of value (gold and silver).

I don't pretend to know where this is all going. All of this deficit spending could be very bad, it could be irrelevant. One thing I've learned over the years is that no one really knows, and even the smartest people generally have no clue in the end. Kind of like strapping yourself into a roller coaster seat - once that bar comes down you have no control of your destiny.

Fun discussion though...

-Wayne

[brp914]

[Brando]

Originally Posted by cstreit

The only hassle is the tax reporting. What’s the basis for a dollar generated out of thin air?

Careful, the FED doesn't like competition when it comes to counterfeiting currency...

[biosurfer1]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

So, this is a fundamental problem with nearly everything. In a nutshell, and after one thinks about it for awhile, nearly every asset is "fake". Money (fiat currency) is fake (only supported by the government behind it). Real estate also is technically fake (again, only supported by the government / courts / army behind it). Gold - it's a pretty worthless material in the grand scheme of things. It's shiny and pretty, but out in the wilderness or on the frontier in the old days - basically not useful for *anything*. Water is useful, but water rights are also fake (again, supported like real estate by the government, courts, and the "army" behind the government). Collectible cars? The value in them is limited to their usefulness as a mode of transportation - anything above that is a perceived value.

-Wayne

This is exactly right.

[Kraftwerk]

Bitcoin works because to put coins & paper money into the internet it has to be transformed or somewhat translated, a purely electronic currency gets in/out quicker. Yet it also has an 'agreed upon value' like paper money and coins. Something like bitcoin will always be in the mix now that we have computers, electricity and the need for commerce to be separate from governments and currencies with vastly different values. A form of 'computer dollars' are here to stay, bitcoin itself could tank entirely, but it has a pretty good foundation I guess, backed up by a mad genius and a super-computer (!) in the end, it's just a tool 'to move stuff' around.

[ShopCat]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

So, the "Bitcoin" that users have on "deposit" with Coinbase, is actually held specifically by Coinbase, and not by the individual user? That seems similar to PayPal, where you have a "balance" with PayPal (denominated in USD), but since PayPal is not a real bank, it just shows up as a liability on the PayPal corporation's balance sheet. In the case of PayPal, if something goes wrong with the company (bankruptcy, fraud, etc.), then the "account holders" would become mere creditors at a BK hearing. It's for this reason that I made sure we swept 100% of our PayPal balance into our bank account every night (they have a "secret" unpublicized tool for large customers that will do this automatically).

Seems like Coinbase is the same thing? They hold your crypto themselves, but then give you an "account balance" that you can then easily use and trade within their system (much like PayPal?).

Other than being denominated in dollars versus crypto, what is the main difference then between a company like PayPal and Coinbase?

-Wayne

You have your own unique wallet but coinbase is still only an exchange, and should only be used as such. Most cryptocurrency users who subscribe to the ethos of bitcoin go by "not your keys, not your coins" and do not keep any serious amount on an exchange. Coinbase has the sk to your accounts, you do not.

Exchanges are just a convenient stop along the way, if bitcoin becomes an acceptable form of payment they will be needed less and less. For example, hundreds of bitcoin are traded locally every week in Venezuela, where their fiat has become unreliable due to hyperinflation. Millions of USD worth of BTC traded locally, peer to peer every week where the monthly minimum wage has dropped to about 1 usd.

[ShopCat]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

Yes, Bitcoin is fake - it doesn't have any basis in anything. But so is nearly every other asset class. Now, some are more "fake" than others, and some have tremendous historical precedence for use as a currency / store of value (gold and silver).
-Wayne

This is why the "greater fool" and "ponzi" arguments against btc are funny, because if you applied the loosely defined arguments from these people to any of the assets you listed, the same conclusion could be found.

[island911]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

So, this is a fundamental problem with nearly everything. In a nutshell, and after one thinks about it for awhile, nearly every asset is "fake". Money (fiat currency) is fake (only supported by the government behind it). Real estate also is technically fake (again, only supported by the government / courts / army behind it). Gold - it's a pretty worthless material in the grand scheme of things. It's shiny and pretty, but out in the wilderness or on the frontier in the old days - basically not useful for *anything*. Water is useful, but water rights are also fake (again, supported like real estate by the government, courts, and the "army" behind the government). Collectible cars? The value in them is limited to their usefulness as a mode of transportation - anything above that is a perceived value. ..

Gold - it's a pretty worthless material? That's ridiculous. Like saying that Titanium is worthless.

Overall your argument is that everything is worthless if you cannot defend it. (water rights, property..) Of course cars are in the same category then. --you don't actually own any cars Wayne, they own you. (see how that works? - I know you do.)

Anyway, one "value" truth remains; people are constantly chasing what has value to them. If, for example, you have been free-diving for a bit too long you will chase the value of the air existing at the water's surface. From there we go in to the hierarchy of needs. As we travers that hierarchy we get to the relative "values" of Beenie Babies and ghost money markers.

[Skillet83]

I have read so much doom porn about the coming collapse, I believe a lot of it, but it has been so propped up at this point they cannot let it go. If it get's away from them, you will see the great global reset. At that point, nothing really matter anyway.
Meanwhile, my crypto , real estate and equity holdings continue to rip. Crypto is absolutely crushing any gains in my other assets, 600% anyone? Tulips or not, the gains are there in black and white.
Look at the current price of BTC today, you would have been called an idiot if you called this price 6 months ago. Well, every 4 years there is a halving that cuts in half the supply of BTC. When that happens, price booms. Happened in 2017, 2021 will happen again in 2024-25. BTC price will explode again. To what? $300,000-$400,000? Who knows.
BTC is the gold standard of crypto currently, but such a little piece of the huge pie. I have mentioned Stellar XLM and Ripple XRP, De-Fi projects. Take a look at Flare Networks. This is the chit that is coming that make substantial wealth, 4 ways to earn while increasing the value of the tokens. It takes time to learn, makes my head explode trying to wrap my head around how some of these projects actually work, but the payoffs are incredible for learning. Will say it again, still so dang early in the game.

[ShopCat]

Originally Posted by Skillet83

Well, every 4 years there is a halving that cuts in half the supply of BTC. When that happens, price booms. Happened in 2017, 2021 will happen again in 2024-25.

Just to be clear for everyone, mining reward per block is cut in half, not total supply.

[GH85Carrera]

Originally Posted by Wayne 962

So, this is a fundamental problem with nearly everything. In a nutshell, and after one thinks about it for awhile, nearly every asset is "fake". Money (fiat currency) is fake (only supported by the government behind it). Real estate also is technically fake (again, only supported by the government / courts / army behind it). Gold - it's a pretty worthless material in the grand scheme of things. It's shiny and pretty, but out in the wilderness or on the frontier in the old days - basically not useful for *anything*. Water is useful, but water rights are also fake (again, supported like real estate by the government, courts, and the "army" behind the government). Collectible cars? The value in them is limited to their usefulness as a mode of transportation - anything above that is a perceived value.

Once people start to think about this in the terms of what is real and what is not real, it either makes things way more confusing, or way more complicated.

Yes, Bitcoin is fake - it doesn't have any basis in anything. But so is nearly every other asset class. Now, some are more "fake" than others, and some have tremendous historical precedence for use as a currency / store of value (gold and silver).

I don't pretend to know where this is all going. All of this deficit spending could be very bad, it could be irrelevant. One thing I've learned over the years is that no one really knows, and even the smartest people generally have no clue in the end. Kind of like strapping yourself into a roller coaster seat - once that bar comes down you have no control of your destiny.

Fun discussion though...

-Wayne

I believe in any collapse of the US Dollar or the governments of the wold the one true currency will be bullets. A hamburger my cost five 9MM rounds and everything will be priced as rounds of ammo.

All the silly post apocalypse movies have the bad guys shooting bullets like they were free. Of course they always all miss the hero.

I just wonder if the current ammo shortage is just so many people stocking up.

Bullets from WW2 are still 100% effective. It is just rather heavy and hard to move around, but they will always have value.

[Kraftwerk]

Ammo: Lots of supply chains are slow r/n, tell it to the auto-makers, hardware stores, bicycle shop's etc. Ammo would be a currency, only for those that have use for said ammo. If you need shot-gun shells and all that guy has is 9mm well both are s.o.l. and if there is nothing to kill, demand decreases.

[gtc]

Originally Posted by brp914

I saw an article yesterday that figured if someone put each of their three stimulus checks in to dogecoin, it would be worth $251,000 today.

[thor66]

the block chain is the thing

BTC is just a surface that the crowd sees, and is unimportant

[WolfeMacleod]

Originally Posted by gtc

I saw an article yesterday that figured if someone put each of their three stimulus checks in to dogecoin, it would be worth $251,000 today.

My brother just cashed out Doge about $90,000. He bought when it was under 5 cents, as did I. I'm still sitting on mine...pocket change compared to what he had.
He's also sitting on 45,000 xrp