I may not be an epidemiologist, but...
 

It seems to me that once about 70% or so of the people get vaccinated, we should go completely back to normal, and not doing so would do more harm than good in the long run. They say if you are vaccinated there's still a small chance you can get covid, but you are very unlikely to get hospitalized and there's no chance of dying.

If we all are allowed to mix and swap germs, we will get exposed to the covid virus from time to time but will get no symptoms and not even know it, or get mildly sick. And we will build up even more immunity. Eventually, covid slips into the background and joins all the other viruses that have been lurking out there for centuries. Those who don't want to take the vaccine may do so at their own risk. They won't harm the vaccinated, and there won't be enough of them in hospitals to overwhelm them. Eventually, they, too will fade into the background of annual cases.

So: Not opening up soon does more harm than good. Am I wrong?

That's probably somewhat accurate (me also not being an expert or even having slept at a Holiday Inn last night). But the Flu has been around forever and can still be pretty nasty and still kills people every year, so I'm not sure that getting a couple of shots and being exposed from time to time is going to give everyone immunity. That sounds like a bit of wishful thinking.

With vaccines available to any who want, the Question is, why are we not completely back to normal now?

Because it takes a while to get 330 million people vaccinated or even 75% of 330 million.

That is what they call "herd immunity."
They used to say 70% or so, but there is a lot of controversy over what percentage of immune people is needed to reach herd immunity and now they're questioning whether it is even necessary. I think to some extent the scientists are placating the snowflakes who whine and moan about their lives not being normal.

You make it sound like 330 million people vaccinated or even 75% of 330 million NEED to be vaccinated.

Why?

iirc more than 10% have been known (tested) to have had it already. Which means likely more double that have had it and never got tested.

And does anyone healthy under 50 need this vaccine?

What are you whining and moaning about now? "snowflakes" you say? They are not living with enough fear? :rolleyes:

The strain of flu changes significantly enough our immune system doesn't know what to do with it. COVID, even with the variants, has remained close enough to the original that the vaccine should let the body recognize all the variants. Those that had COVID should remain immune for several months, but may not recognize any variants. At least according to resources like Arstechnica and similar.

A complicating factor may be the resistance fading in a period of six months or so requiring a booster. That scenario will be playing out in a matter of a few months. I'd hate to see a reemergance with a significant number of people not gettiing the booster.

Why do people like this theory so much?

I swear, some people crave the fear.

If there is ANY indication that the vaccines are good for only 6 months, please post it.

What's your proposal? No one needs to be vaccinated?

does having it mean that you can no longer get it or just that you don't have to worry about it any more or something else?

No one needs the vaccine if they are willing to take their chances. Plenty of folks that seemed otherwise healthy have caught it and died. If that's not a concern, then no, don't worry about it.

For that matter, don't worry about catching it and spreading it around to others. That's there problem right?

So far people that have had COVID are showing good immunity after 8 months ( the farthest back any of the participants are) and the vaccine is "supposed" to be better at programming the immune system than the actual infection.

Isn't the theory that due to mutations of the virus, our immunity is unlikely to be permanent after a period (maybe similar to the flu). So, similar to the flu and needing a yearly flu shot, we may end up needing a yearly CV shot to continue to have some immunity to CV to keep from getting it or minimize the effects. And the 6 months is because we don't have more than 6 months of data, but it could be 6 months, 12 months or something else entirely.

Maybe some are, but not all. Here at my facility we have the ability to go above and beyond what many employers can do for employees. For instance we have our own PCR Covid testing capabilities and also provide vaccinations. I've had many tests and got my vaccine here at work.

Employees who have tested positive (and truly had Covid) are enrolled in an antibody testing program where they are tested weekly. A guy I work with daily had Covid (kicked his arse) in December. He told me this week that in his recent antibody test, his have decreased to point where he essentially has little/no immunity. So, this is less than five months.

They also have a program here at work where they are doing weekly antibody testing on those who have been vaccinated. I am not in that program and have not heard the results, but will try and find out.

Yeah the article in Arstechnica said in the study roughly 80% retained immunity. It is like any other virus, nothing is 100% and never will be whether it is a natural immunity or vaccine.

Excellent, hope you can get the data.

Let me guess, you work for Best Buy? These are PCR test kits from WalGreens? :D

That's very cool and interesting. Very much looking forward to hear if you learn of results from vaccinated folks.

I think the biggest problem is Covid-19 hasn't been around very long so we're in the infant stage of our knowledge gathering about it.

Yes. That, and culling out the dis-information too. Whatever the true picture turns out to be, it probably won't be as bad as the mass panic that was being pushed by the media. And it won't be as easy to "flatten the curve" by telling people to (1) stay home, (2) wear a mask, and (3) stay 6 feet apart. I think that is asinine, and was being required by individuals and businesses lest you get a hefty fine. It'll turn out that there was not much that we could do long-term other than just wait it out. It has spread quite rapidly, despite all of the government shut downs. It has reached virtually every person by now on the planet, in 18 destructive months. Was it worth causing global recession? I don't know. I suspect that will be debated for decades to come.

Thanks for this input, Mike. I hope you will continue to post your observations!



This is my thought, as well. And to make matters worse the media continues to interject politics into their reporting - which mucks things up a bit for those of us who just want facts and data. And honesty.

That is what worked for the Spanish Flu and they had no real info on the new SARS so they went with what was known to work in that pandemic. New Zealand had things well under control in July of last year. Smaller country for sure with limited access for foreigners for sure but we could be in much better shape now.

I think for the most part, the health damage has already been done to the general public from allowing immune systems to be sidelined for so long. Wearing a mask, and sanitizing every surface will only hurt us after we stop doing so, and all of a sudden have so many more germs to deal with by a compromised protection system.

Especially since most scientists keep saying it is not spread by touching infected surfaces.

On a related note, in the last year is, how has everyone been as far as normal, common cold type sick? Many folks will get sick for a few days here and there a couple/few times a year. I've spoken to a bunch of folks that said that they've been healthier in the last year-ish as far as that sort of thing goes than usual. And some of these folks work in hotels and restaurants, but have mask and distancing rules. So they are thinking that some of the things that have been done for CV have helped protect them from other things as well.

Anyone have any thoughts or their own anectdotal evidence or theories.

I don't normally get sick enough to say whether things have been different for myself. My wife does seem to have been better than usual (her opinion, but I agree, especially since we watch 2 grandsons aged 2 and 5 five days a week, and those grandkids socialize on the weekends).

My own little peephole view of the world, I am stuck neck deep in constant exposure from a vast array of people.

In November 2019 I got a really bad flu. Had to stay home for 2-3 days, and I NEVER do that! It was just like the SARS/ Coronavirus. During 2020 I felt sick many times. We were doing the social distancing thing with masks, and being damn stupid paranoid with bleach spray, alcohol wipes and spray, hand sanitizer, the whole dumb assortment of futile crap that pops into people's heads.

I develop real estate and own some buildings. One of them is a large retail gas station and convenience store. That store is stupid busy. I also put on an annual pumpkin patch and carnival. I would say average attendance in 1 month is more than 20K people. Probably more like 30K people. I get some sort of cold, flu, you name it....every year toward the end of the month. So, I'm dealing with people from all over, every day. I'm pretty sure I got every variant of Covid you could get on the West coast of the USA. Only now the vaccine is available, but it's like shutting the barn doors after the animals all ran outside.

Speaking as someone who has a BS in Biology, albeit barely made it, I know enough about this stuff to have been scared crapless by it. And it wasn't just the media hype. It was listening to the guys that really know this stuff. The mask mandates, social distancing, stay at home etc., were the only things they could impose or suggest that they knew would work to stop the spread of the virus. And that is the most important thing you can do in any pandemic, stop the spread of the virus. It can't live without a 'host'. So stopping the spread, it would eventually die out on its own. Too bad so many of us couldn't or wouldn't follow the advice and over 500k had to die.
Think about that for a second. Half a million plus people have lost their lives here in the US.

I have not had a cold since the virus started. I did have the virus though.

The good news is that antibodies are not necessarily the right marker. The B cells and T cells can always make more once they have learned how to from the original exposure (covid or spike protein).

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/17/health/coronavirus-immunity.html

“How long might immunity to the coronavirus last? Years, maybe even decades, according to a new study — the most hopeful answer yet to a question that has shadowed plans for widespread vaccination.

Eight months after infection, most people who have recovered still have enough immune cells to fend off the virus and prevent illness, the new data show. A slow rate of decline in the short term suggests, happily, that these cells may persist in the body for a very, very long time to come.

The research, published online, has not been peer-reviewed nor published in a scientific journal. But it is the most comprehensive and long-ranging study of immune memory to the coronavirus to date.

“That amount of memory would likely prevent the vast majority of people from getting hospitalized disease, severe disease, for many years,” said Shane Crotty, a virologist at the La Jolla Institute of Immunology who co-led the new study.
The findings are likely to come as a relief to experts worried that immunity to the virus might be short-lived, and that vaccines might have to be administered repeatedly to keep the pandemic under control.

And the research squares with another recent finding: that survivors of SARS, caused by another coronavirus, still carry certain important immune cells 17 years after recovering.

Dig deeper into the moment.
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The findings are consistent with encouraging evidence emerging from other labs. Researchers at the University of Washington, led by the immunologist Marion Pepper, had earlier shown that certain “memory” cells that were produced following infection with the coronavirus persist for at least three months in the body.

A study published last week also found that people who have recovered from Covid-19 have powerful and protective killer immune cells even when antibodies are not detectable.

These studies “are all by and large painting the same picture, which is that once you get past those first few critical weeks, the rest of the response looks pretty conventional,” said Deepta Bhattacharya, an immunologist at the University of Arizona.
Akiko Iwasaki, an immunologist at Yale University, said she was not surprised that the body mounts a long-lasting response because “that’s what is supposed to happen.” Still, she was heartened by the research: “This is exciting news.”

A small number of infected people in the new study did not have long-lasting immunity after recovery, perhaps because of differences in the amounts of coronavirus they were exposed to. But vaccines can overcome that individual variability, said Jennifer Gommerman, an immunologist at the University of Toronto.

“That will help in focusing the response, so you don’t get the same kind of heterogeneity that you would see in an infected population,” she said.”

A lot of people here and elsewhere can only see themselves as virus victims (or just victims) without considering that they can also just as easily be virus vectors. If seen as a test run, this pandemic forecasts a pretty dismal next run.

Screw you, man. This is just a bogus way for the man to keep us down. You can't make me do anything!

the last time i was sick was january 2020. i’m fairly certain it was covid. since then, i have not been out in the world much. no one in my family has even had a cold. if they had, i would have head about it

typically i would get sick 3 or 4 times a year due to infected workplace

I have a couple of friends who say that, and they mean it. :rolleyes:
My brother and his wife believe the vaccine has some kind of tracker in it - because what they do is so interesting the government wants to know about it. I guess they must be double nought spies. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

I am grateful I have this forum and the one next door to rely on for good information. Confident, certain knowledge. And yet, I am sometimes confused by what appears to be disagreement. Among the experts here.

Cousin is one our countries leading microbiologists. Different field I know, but she has a very good understanding of how these things work. Her opinion is the reason we need as many vaccinated as possible is to stop the mutations. There is talk in her community of Dr's, that it could mutate into something far nastier than we are seeing now.

The newer strains (British, Indian strain) have been getting more younger people sick and in ER then older folks..

+1

Yeah? How many more?

This entire pandemic could have been over and done with if only people had reacted with due diligence from the start instead of taking an "i'm not worried bout no flu".

The entire Covid thing is not really a disease problem but a stupidity and discipline problem.

we have a saying in Dutch.. not sure if it's also known in english.

literal translation : "Gentle healers leave stinking wounds"
Well That's what we have now.. Because of piss poor wait and see response by western governments, and the lack of common sense in the public this thing has gotten way out of hands.

Look at China : They locked down good and hard.. they are fine
Look at central Africa : They know from Ebola to social distance like nuts.. they are fine.
Look at NZ and Australia : they are fine

Who isn't fine? All the modern western and Latin "democracies" where people all think they know better then what they are told to do.
Where there's a lot of "You can't tell me what to do", there's a lot of Covid spread and issues.

Oh, BS. Plenty of people who followed the recommendations got the virus anyway.

Hey, remember when the WHO said don't wear a mask? ...said clean those surfaces?

It is pathetic that you want to blame the people who were not adequately fearful for your liking.