Bayesian sinking

[Bill Douglas]

Marty that was an interesting video. Amazing that they don't do a boat drill (escape plan).

[HobieMarty]

Originally Posted by Bill Douglas

Marty that was an interesting video. Amazing that they don't do a boat drill (escape plan).

I figure some things will change, and a drill of sorts, such as going over an escape plan, wouldn't be a bad thing.

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[crb07]

Originally Posted by HobieMarty

I figure some things will change, and a drill of sorts, such as going over an escape plan, wouldn't be a bad thing.

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Very common in the yacht industry for safety briefs before charters. I would agree that it is not as common with an owner. It’s probably similar to an owner of a private jet. His flight attendant is not going to do a safety brief with him before every flight. So were all his guests familiar with the vessel? Maybe not. These yachts are built to certain class regulations and will have safety standards similar to passenger and cruise ships, only more practical for the type vessel. They will meet stability requirements. The crew are required to do regular drills. The vessel will be inspected every year and go through a class survey every 2.5 years, depending on class.

The vessel heeled over because of the wind. The center board being raised made the vessel less stable. Imagine a guest cabin at 90 degrees and you have to get out? The door is either on the ceiling or the floor. Even if you end up with the door in the position it is now the floor is there a mattress covering the exit? Is there an escape hatch in every guest cabin ceiling? Not sure. Bad situation.

As stated in a previous video, the yacht had positive stability to 73 degrees with the keel retracted. If the wind pushed the vessel beyond this point the vessel is likely not going to recover and continue to heel over further. In this event how much of the hull is submerged? Remember the photo of the large sliding doors on the main deck, the doors it was said are locked open when sailing because they won’t stay closed. I would imagine these doors are going to open when heeled over. These yachts are packed full, I can’t see this one floating well on its side.

I think the builders comments are uncalled for. He is making a lot of assumptions. We will see a report of what happened in due time. Unfortunately for the captain if they charge him he will be guilty until proven innocent based on Italian law.

150 feet is not that deep, I would say they will raise this vessel.

[HobieMarty]

https://youtu.be/KbdidVAbxhk?si=XRMgSkmanxwBXF23



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[3rd_gear_Ted]

A confluence of both human judgement and ship design faults came together in seconds.
Gotta wonder about the marine survey done and the extent of due diligence.
The Captain should have legal proceedings brought against him like we did for the dive boat tragedy.

[crb07]

Originally Posted by 3rd_gear_Ted

A confluence of both human judgement and ship design faults came together in seconds.
Gotta wonder about the marine survey done and the extent of due diligence.
The Captain should have legal proceedings brought against him like we did for the dive boat tragedy.

Completely disagree.
We don’t know what the crew was doing before or during the storm.
We don’t know the wind speed.
We don’t know if what little info we have received is accurate. Especially regarding the stability of the vessel.

[hcoles]

73 degrees and then the mast would pin the boat over. Not good. I wonder what position the keel was in - fully retracted, partly retracted?

[hcoles]

I heard the crew was out pulling in cushions etc. because they saw the storm coming. This would have been a good time to lower the keel.

[pwd72s]

Originally Posted by hcoles

I heard the crew was out pulling in cushions etc. because they saw the storm coming. This would have been a good time to lower the keel.

Sounds like a door was open...better to close that. (keel force is most useful when under sail. It's weight is at a low point, either up or down.)

[masraum]

Originally Posted by HobieMarty

The builder of the Bayesian said the vessel was "unsinkable" because it had several water tight compartments, which is an absurd thing to say, hmmm, I can remember someone else claiming their vessel was "unsinkable" and we all know how that turned out.

Whether you believe in something bigger or not, calling a boat "unsinkable" just seems like asking for trouble. Someone, somewhere is likely to take that as a challenge whether it's Poseidon, mother nature, or whomever you choose to believe in. (trying to keep this out of PARF). I'm picturing Poseidon looking at Zeus and saying, "here, hold my beer..." LOL.

Kind of darkly amusing (if you can put on your dark comedy hat and remove your tragedy hat).

[masraum]

Originally Posted by hcoles

I heard the crew was out pulling in cushions etc. because they saw the storm coming. This would have been a good time to lower the keel.

I haven't been scouring the data available and have very little sailboat expertise, but if you're on a billionaire's sailing yacht, and a storm's brewing, I'm thinking the proper order of events would be 1 close the giant doors, and lower the keel if possible (presumably the sails were furled) 2 close the ports/windows/hatches, 3 deal with the cushions or anything else that might wash overboard.

[911 Rod]

Originally Posted by hcoles

I heard the crew was out pulling in cushions etc. because they saw the storm coming. This would have been a good time to lower the keel.

I bet they were really nice cushions

[masraum]

Originally Posted by 911 Rod

I bet they were really nice cushions

ROFLMAO!

Yeah, probably so. I'll bet they float too.

[hcoles]

Originally Posted by pwd72s

Sounds like a door was open...better to close that. (keel force is most useful when under sail. It's weight is at a low point, either up or down.)

When under sail they would have the keel down. While at anchor having the keel down would very much alter how much the boat heeled over. I'm thinking some door or hatch or other opening(s) leading to below decks got under water when the boat heeled over. Of course I don't know for sure but I'm interested to find out. I sailed on a "large" 50' sail boat for a good number of years. We got heeled over close to 90 a few times.

[hcoles]

Down wind broach can look something like this....

[hcoles]

This is the one thing you don't want to do.... called putting the pole in the water...
The boat doesn't sink because water typically doesn't get below deck.
I don't like the idea of huge luxury sail boat - of course some people do.

[HobieMarty]

I've said it before, a door in the hull equals a hole to me, I don't care how well it seals, I'll pass!!!

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[pwd72s]

Wasn't it mentioning that the tender was outside the boat, suggesting that the tender's hull door was open? Maybe I read wrong.

I used to have a unballasted 15' Chrysler Mutineer...Damn, it was a lot of fun. Taught me quite a bit about how a monohull reacts to various forces. Only 150 sq. ft. of sail with main & jib, I forget how much the spinnaker added...being unballasted, it's swing keel gave little righting effect unless the boat was moving. Might add a little weight lower down. Anyway, experience gained in the dinghy aided me a lot in understanding how larger sailboats functioned. One thrill a larger boat can't deliver is popping up onto a plane under sail...gawd, I loved it! Hcole's pics brought back memories...I've made all the goofs. Got pretty good at getting the boat back upright after a swim.

[crb07]

A few things about large sailboats. Bayesian type vessels are really not comparable to smaller sailing vessels or some even larger ones. Your typical Sunfish, Laser or other dingy can be capsized and righted, its almost fun. Smaller keel boats designed to race or cruise have a companion way centerline and can probably capsize to 90 degrees and right itself fairly unscathed. Even larger sailing vessels can be designed for some extreme conditions. For instance;

https://www.charterworld.com/index.html?sub=yacht-charter&charter=sailing-yacht-meteor-1739

Meteor is about the same length as Bayesian. Fixed keel at just over 14 feet, close to the draft of Bayesian with centerboard up. Meteor is a true sailing vessel. Carbon masts and composite type standing rigging- very light, probably 3 tons or more lighter than Bayesian's mast and rigging. Companion ways and hatches are all center line and can be closed in heavy weather. Meteor was designed to have positive stability to over 120 degrees, compared to Bayesian's max 88 degrees with keel down.

Bayesian is basically a motor yacht that looks like a sailing vessel and can sail. The entire hull of this vessel is jam packed with a small town. Water makers, AC plant, engines and gens, galley to feed guests and crew, 6 staterooms, crew accommodations, tenders garages... basically everything a large motor yacht has. Then they put the tallest aluminum mast in the world on her.

I really don't want to start speculating. But, how high will the Bayesian float in the water when heeled over to 70, 80, and 90 degrees? At what point do the main deck salon doors (the ones that don't stay closed when the vessel heels over) become submerged? How much wind does it take to heel the vessel over to these angles? A few crew statements have leaked out, like, one second we were dealing with cushions and such because of rain and a second later we were in the water. It's obvious the vessel went to a high angle of heel very fast. At what angle do you end up in the water? Did the vessel ever try to recover or just keep going, as in the mast continued towards the water and would more than likely sink faster than the hull could fill with water?

OK, can't help it, going to speculate. This is all speculation. The vessel had zero chance. This was a microburst. When a vessel drags anchor, especially towards deeper water, the anchor will have less and less effect in holding the bow into the wind. The vessel will eventually turn side to the wind. Even if the crew were to get main engines and bow thruster started, a vessel with a mast this size is going to be very difficult to keep the bow into such high winds. So the vessel eventually went side to the wind, no idea how much wind but enough to push her over past the point of no return. This vessel is very heavy and is going to float very low in the water when at 90 degrees plus heel. The big 8 foot wide doors to the interior are well under water. Down flooding is fast. Think of the momentum a mast this heavy and tall is going to have if it is moving fast towards the water, a massive lever. This is not a static test in calm conditions. This is extreme conditions. The naval architects will do these calculations. It's going to be a long trial and I fully expect the massive corporation that owns Perini Navi as well as many other Italian shipyards with government contracts to continue the attack on captain and crew. Italian law is guilty until proven innocent.

[hcoles]

Originally Posted by crb07

A few things about large sailboats. Bayesian type vessels are really not comparable to smaller sailing vessels or some even larger ones. Your typical Sunfish, Laser or other dingy can be capsized and righted, its almost fun. Smaller keel boats designed to race or cruise have a companion way centerline and can probably capsize to 90 degrees and right itself fairly unscathed. Even larger sailing vessels can be designed for some extreme conditions. For instance;

https://www.charterworld.com/index.html?sub=yacht-charter&charter=sailing-yacht-meteor-1739

Meteor is about the same length as Bayesian. Fixed keel at just over 14 feet, close to the draft of Bayesian with centerboard up. Meteor is a true sailing vessel. Carbon masts and composite type standing rigging- very light, probably 3 tons or more lighter than Bayesian's mast and rigging. Companion ways and hatches are all center line and can be closed in heavy weather. Meteor was designed to have positive stability to over 120 degrees, compared to Bayesian's max 88 degrees with keel down.

Bayesian is basically a motor yacht that looks like a sailing vessel and can sail. The entire hull of this vessel is jam packed with a small town. Water makers, AC plant, engines and gens, galley to feed guests and crew, 6 staterooms, crew accommodations, tenders garages... basically everything a large motor yacht has. Then they put the tallest aluminum mast in the world on her.

I really don't want to start speculating. But, how high will the Bayesian float in the water when heeled over to 70, 80, and 90 degrees? At what point do the main deck salon doors (the ones that don't stay closed when the vessel heels over) become submerged? How much wind does it take to heel the vessel over to these angles? A few crew statements have leaked out, like, one second we were dealing with cushions and such because of rain and a second later we were in the water. It's obvious the vessel went to a high angle of heel very fast. At what angle do you end up in the water? Did the vessel ever try to recover or just keep going, as in the mast continued towards the water and would more than likely sink faster than the hull could fill with water?

OK, can't help it, going to speculate. This is all speculation. The vessel had zero chance. This was a microburst. When a vessel drags anchor, especially towards deeper water, the anchor will have less and less effect in holding the bow into the wind. The vessel will eventually turn side to the wind. Even if the crew were to get main engines and bow thruster started, a vessel with a mast this size is going to be very difficult to keep the bow into such high winds. So the vessel eventually went side to the wind, no idea how much wind but enough to push her over past the point of no return. This vessel is very heavy and is going to float very low in the water when at 90 degrees plus heel. The big 8 foot wide doors to the interior are well under water. Down flooding is fast. Think of the momentum a mast this heavy and tall is going to have if it is moving fast towards the water, a massive lever. This is not a static test in calm conditions. This is extreme conditions. The naval architects will do these calculations. It's going to be a long trial and I fully expect the massive corporation that owns Perini Navi as well as many other Italian shipyards with government contracts to continue the attack on captain and crew. Italian law is guilty until proven innocent.

On the esysman channel he said the Sicilian Navy confirmed there was a downburst.
A video was shown where a sailboat at anchor was heeled far over by a downburst.