Future And Implications Of Autonomous Cars

[jyl]

Autonomous cars are already very capable. Waymo’s robot cars drive around most of San Francisco, a complicated and difficult driving environment, and parts of Los Angeles and Phoenix. Austin next. In SF taking a Waymo ride is routine now. Other areas will present other challenges - snow, ice - but even with the current state of technology, Waymo can probably be operating in most urban areas in the US in the next several years. Which means that other autonomous car companies will eventually be able to do so, after they catch up. By 2035, or sooner, if the economics make sense, autonomous cars - either taxis or private vehicles - can probably or potentially be doing much of the driving. For both passengers and freight.

What do we think about this?

First, what impact on the market for private cars? Will we keep buying private cars, with or without the option of having them drive us around when we don’t want to drive? As many private cars?

Second, what impact on people and companies who make, service, sell cars?

Third, what impact on people who drive cars (and trucks) for a living?

[Gogar]

Personally I think the autonomous vehicle concept is going to be novel at best until ALL the cars are autonomous. I recently read an article about how the 'organics' are taking advantage of Waymos and autonomous vehicles because we are starting to understand that the Waymo will always defer to an obstacle, and so we drive, walk, or ride like a-holes around them, as the machine takes no offense and doesn't have any 'feelings.'

Pessimists will argue that an 100% automous car environment is the goal of government anyway.

I like the idea of an autonomous 'express lane' or a click-in where your autonomous-capable car could get in the interstate express lane and set the destination exit 200 miles away and proceed with other autonomous vehicles at say, 130mph.


Ill skip #1 and 2 but for question #3 I think autonomous trucks in their own lanes similar to what I just described will be one of the first things to come. I guess In the old days they called it the 'railroad.'

[berettafan]

My beef is the places where these are in greatest use SHOULD be using mass public transportation (buses, trollies, trains) not personal luxury chariots. Just doesn't seem compatible with the idea of saving the earth.

[zakthor]

It’s going to take longer that you think. The things have no semantic. A ball rolls into the road you jam on the brakes because Shirley a kid is close behind. So many situations where you need to have understanding to choose well. Don’t get me started on how they behave around pedestrians and cyclists.

[p911dad]

Around here at least mass transit is sparse compared maybe with NYC or SF. As long as we are free to choose private transportation mass transit will always be the poor cousin.

[GH85Carrera]

I am hoping by the time I am too old to drive, I can just poke a button on my phone, a car arrives, and takes me to the destination I want to get to.

I suspect there will be various levels of autonomous cars. The "unwashed masses" will have the cheaper rides, and the middle class will have a better ride, and the elite will have super clean and nicer cars. The last time I rode in a taxi was in Monterey, CA. It was just trashed out interior, and a gross experience to go three miles, and it had very limited parking there, so I left my car at the hotel in a safe spot.

Densely packed urban cities will be first. Here in Oklahoma City, we have a metro area of over 1,000 square miles. I suspect like Uber and Lyft, if I want to go to the other side of the metro, it will be rather expensive.

I will stick to driving my own long ago paid for cars until I just can't drive safely.

[jyl]

If the future is that we all have in effect a chauffeur when we want it, that’s not so bad I guess.

Or taxis without creepy drivers, not so bad. My daughter says single women prefer the Waymos because they don’t get stuck in a taxi or Uber with a sketchy driver.

But I see a whole lot of jobs lost.

[wdfifteen]

Originally Posted by berettafan

My beef is the places where these are in greatest use SHOULD be using mass public transportation (buses, trollies, trains) not personal luxury chariots. Just doesn't seem compatible with the idea of saving the earth.

I agree, mostly. The place where AVs have an advantage is that they provide door-to-door transport. We don't have to walk anywhere, even to the bus stop.

Reacting to Glen's post - I can see a day when I'll want (or yuck, need) someone to drive me around. I've had to take taxis in cities and out here in the sticks and taxi drivers seem almost universally sketchy humans. A little wheeled box to get me where I'm going that I don't have to share with a weird human would be an attractive option.

[onewhippedpuppy]

I wonder about the legal liability implications. Right now if you mow somebody down in your Explorer, the victim’s family can’t sue Ford. But when the autonomous car causes an accident, in theory the manufacturer would be to blame. Seems like that could get sticky pretty quick.

I think the concept will always be problematic when you have a mix of autonomous and people driving. These things run on a bunch of sensors and predictive algorithms and you can’t accurately predict the stupid stuff that people do. I could easily see some heavily urban areas like Manhattan being set up as zones where the only cars allowed are autonomous. In that scenario you could basically network the cars and allow them to communicate to streamline traffic and eliminate accidents.

[jhynesrockmtn]

I saw my first Waymo car in the wild last week. At the Phoenix airport heading to my Mom's place for a few days. I was in a shuttle leaving the airport and we were outside the 25mph zone. If I recall the limit was at 45mph. It was going way slower than the traffic around it which was causing an issue. Folks passing on both sides. I would never get in one, but I'm old and getting grumpier every day.