No Convention Bounce for Kerry

cowtown · 08-02-2004, 07:21 AM

Not that W will get one either - I just thought Kerry'd see something, the way the media were talking up his detail-free giveaway speech as the Second Coming of proper governance.

From GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, conducted on Friday and Saturday following the Democratic convention in Boston, finds that the presidential race remains close, with President George W. Bush receiving 50% support among likely voters, and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry 47%. Among the larger group of registered voters, Kerry leads 50% to 47%.

Compared with the last CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey conducted before the convention (July 19-21), this post-convention poll shows that among likely voters, Kerry's support is actually two points lower than it was pre-convention, while Bush's support is three points higher. Among registered voters, Kerry's support in the current poll is one point higher than it was pre-convention, while Bush's support is also higher, by two points (the percentage of undecideds dropped in both groups).

For neither group of voters does the slight change in voter preferences, compared with a poll conducted shortly before the convention, favor Kerry. All of these changes are within the margin of error, meaning that we cannot be 95% certain that Bush gained on Kerry after the convention. However, clearly there is no convention bounce for Kerry.

techweenie · techweenie's Garage

Coverage of the convention was spotty, and focused mainly on Teresa telling a reporter to 'shove it.'

I think the RNC will be smarter and there will be a 'bounce' after the Republican convention.

It should be pointed out that at least one oter national poll showed Kerry got a +4 point bounce.

All prior political punditry is obsolete, since today, opinion polls shift literally day-to-day.

bryanthompson · bryanthompson's Garage

It was the smallest bounce ever in the history of Newsweek's polling. Newsweek is not a right-wing mag in any way, either.

lendaddy · 08-02-2004, 07:58 AM

Even at 4% it is the worst convention bounce for either party in history. We won't know if that is a dynamic of this particular race or not till after the Republican convention. Very interesting regardless and not good news for the Dems. I seriously think the more people know of John Kerry the less the like him. Like I said, we'll see at the end of the month.

cowtown · 08-02-2004, 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by techweenie
I think the RNC will be smarter and there will be a 'bounce' after the Republican convention.

Tech, I don't understand what you mean by this - the networks will spend the same airtime on the (R) convention. It's also my opinion that the broadcasters will talk down the Republicans more, but I know that's debatable.

Quote:

All prior political punditry is obsolete, since today, opinion polls shift literally day-to-day.

Yep, on that we agree. I just thought he'd see something immediately after the convention, obsolete or not. Not many fence-sitters out there, I guess.

SteveStromberg · 08-02-2004, 08:28 AM

Just Check the pelican Poll. Its a good as any poll. GW by a Landside.

Wayne's World: Today, a Political Poll!

cowtown · 08-02-2004, 08:45 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by SteveStromberg
Just Check the pelican Poll.

That's not even close to a random sample...It's like asking HUD-dwellers if they will vote for Kerrry.

Moneyguy1 · 08-02-2004, 08:48 AM

With the polarization of the electorate, I am surprised that either side will get a sizable "bounce".

In my long life, I have never see anything quite like this.

nostatic · nostatic's Garage

I'm with Bob. Unless GW hits an absolute home run or commits some atrocity at the convention, I doubt there will be a bounce either way. Both sides know how they're going to vote, and the fence-sitters likely won't decide until they walk into the booth.

tabs · 08-02-2004, 09:32 AM

Quote:

Originally posted by Moneyguy1
In my long life, I have never see anything quite like this.

Hey Steve GW won the Pelican poll cause I vote 11 times for him!

BTW: Thats not true I only voted ahhhh...this new honesty is killing me...I much prefered it when I was trying to be controversial...once. There I said it!

Mother is horrified she doesn't know what to make of this new me....HA HA HA Mother I now know the way to get back at ya....

Anyway.....I will postulate the American Repblic is in danger a crisis is looming. How the country comes out of it is up in the air. The country hasn't been this polarized since the Civil War and Reconstruction. The conflict isn't between the have and have nots, but between idologies on the extent government should interfere in the lives of it's citizens....self reliance vs government dependence. The Progressivew is trying to make a perfect world by government decree while the Conserative is saying let well enough alone, everything will find it's own level.

What is dangerous about this state of affairs is that neither side will listen to the other and make adjustments. It has gotten to the point where both sides are demonizing each other and looking at them like they are the enemy. If this state of affairs continues to get worse, and the likes of Michael Moorer add nothing but gasoline to the fire. For his own benfit and pocketbook I might add. Sooner or later one side will feel alienatd enough, that the Repblic will be put on hold to restore order. After all economic interests outweigh the political.

The ramifications of suspending the Repblic will have grave consequences financially. The USA has always been seen as a save haven for capital due to the stability of the political system and financial markets. This status will be lost and capital will flee. The fall out on the world politically is beyond comprehension...chaos and disorder on a grand scale could be the ultimate outcome. The US will enter iinto a malingering depressive state. Never again will so much be entrusted to the people, that their intolerence and ignorance fked it all up. Out of this you will see the rise of the corporate state that owes no allegiance to any people but only to the obliquitous share holder.

Moneyguy1 · 08-02-2004, 07:04 PM

Tabs...You been takin smart vitamins? Great post. I feel somewhat vindicated.

I have been labelled "this", "that", called "This", and so on. It seems that it is so easy to pigenhole people and use the words "treason", "hate", "enemy" to apply to fellow citizens.

I am willing to listen to arguments from anyone, presented in a cogent and logical manner, not just reprints of articles from journals or individual that bolster their specific point of view. But Michael isn't the only one, just the most notorious(and perhaps successful) one. There are enough bomb throwers to go around, each more virulent than the last. Almost like there is a contest as to who can come up with the most outlandish tripe.

We ain't gonna get much civility here either, Tabs, and I think that proves your point.

In many ways, this BB is just a microcosm of the greater problem.

turbo6bar · 08-02-2004, 07:24 PM

The only thing that can bind the US together is a massive terrorist attack. Something horrible will make us forget the little stuff, including the petty squabble between the Democrats and Republicans.

Moneyguy1 · 08-02-2004, 07:48 PM

Turbo..

Sad, but probably true. Disasters seem to bring out the best in(most) people.

Someone once said there are two rules to a happy life:

1. Don't sweat the small stuff

2. It's all small stuff

I grin a bit sadly, thinking that there will probably be a post deriding what you and I have agreed on.

singpilot · 08-03-2004, 05:01 AM

I suspect the coming Madrid-style attack either during or right after the NYC Republican Convention will generate more media attntion than the Dems got.

The implications here could go either way. People could be mad that even the heightened security (yeah, right) didn't stop the attack, or the case could be made that we have not gone far enough to stop the terror, and GW should be allowed to finish his second term of heavy handed 'War on Terror'.

Either way, the next two months are gonna be interesting.

Moneyguy1 · 08-03-2004, 09:04 AM

Agreed. They will be interesting in a macabre way....

techweenie · techweenie's Garage

Quote:

Originally posted by singpilot
...
The implications here could go either way. People could be mad that even the heightened security (yeah, right) didn't stop the attack, or the case could be made that we have not gone far enough to stop the terror, and GW should be allowed to finish his second term of heavy handed 'War on Terror'.
..

The local Squawk Radio team on ultra right-wing KFI (KKKfi, if you prefer) is all over Bush for "getting distracted from the war on terror and going after Saddam." Since over a million people listen to them, that's a pretty negative train of thought to have going on in a traditionally pro-Repulican medium. They're also going after the administration on illegal immigration and trying to tie it in to the 'war on terror' These guys are so influential that Asa Hutchinson has appeared on their show, and they are talking to legislators every day.

The focus of the 'war on terror' has been inconsistent, and the "intelligence" has been pathetic -- witness the revelation that the latest uproar over NYC and NJ corporate HQ attacks turns out to be 3-4 years out of date.

No wonder Americans are deep into "Alert burnout."

lendaddy · 08-03-2004, 09:19 AM

The data recovered had been reviewed AND updated in the last few months. Ahhh just a detail, nevermind.

techweenie · techweenie's Garage

Quote:

Originally posted by lendaddy
The data recovered had been reviewed AND updated in the last few months. Ahhh just a detail, nevermind.

So much for trusting Drudgereport.

juanbenae · juanbenae's Garage

i wonder if tom ridge will be on TV the sunday after the GOP's convention to raise the terror level? somehow i think not.

i saw some cuts of five different bush speaches last night on the daily show, and apparently we "have turned the corner". twenty three times in 5 five speaches.

well, now that changes everything! now that we have "turned the corner" im in bushes camp. well most likely not,,, not until they produce bin ladan, probally just at the right time for W to look like a champion before the vote.

just to be fair, jon and the boys railed on kerry for not taking the "turning the corner" statment and hitting it out of the park. they played a cut of kerry's rebuttal and he blew it. some nonsense about "turning then conrner and the jobs just kept going".

kerry is one bland cat, but i would have hoped with all his celeb backers someone could have written something better than that for him.